Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @ www.macrotrends.net

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Addendum

Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?