Real Estate … Ready for Reversal

Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?

Fake Data, Fake Market, Real Price

‘Head Fake’ … 1-million Jobs

Within the mirage of fake data, one thing’s not fake, the price.

The latest revelation about fake data, comes at this link, telling us something we already knew; the jobs data is a complete mirage.

What must be over a year ago, Neil McCoyWard, presented a series whereby he reviewed several individual, personal diaries, from The Great Depression.

From that series, no-one (in the public) seemed to know the extent of unemployment until much later.

The numbers were ‘hidden’ back then, just like now; what a coincidence.

The search, and need for the ‘truth’, becomes more clear by the day. In the markets, truth is the price and price only.

Apparently driving it home, revelation that chief cook and (woke) bottle washer Netflix, drank the Kool-Aid and overestimated advertising demand.

The last update on NFLX, stated there may be a rally to test the breakdown. So far, it hasn’t happened.

Last Thursday’s – 8.6%, ‘air-pocket’, may have been the kick-off to much lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s take another look at the big picture on Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Very quickly we see the overall (impulsive) direction of the market is down.

In Wyckoff terms, there’s what he called ‘ease-of-movement’, to the downside.

Next, we have a possible Head & Shoulders, top.

If NFLX, reverses from here all the way down to the neckline (blue line), and if it breaks that line, then we target the 40-area; that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Moving in closer on the daily chart, is the following:

Netflix NFLX, Daily

The wedge breakdown is clear.

There was an attempt to rally, if you can call it that, on Friday. So far, no significant upside action.

The zoom area shows price action still below the lower wedge boundry.

Netflix is different from our other potential implosion, short candidate (which proved correct), Carvana, CVNA.

That difference, Carvana sold a product for which there was an actual need, i.e., transportation.


It’s been just over a year since the CVNA, ‘No P/E’, report.

Carvana’s a slow-motion train-wreck; down over -98%, as of Friday’s close.


Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Mysterious’ Decline

Read The Chart

Media analysts and YouTubers alike, are scratching their collective coneheads.

They’re asking; why is silver down a whopping – 39%, from its print high of February 1st, this year?

If we factor in the high of SLV 48.35 (from April of 2011), silver’s been pummeled – 65%.

With the ‘rampant’ inflation and never-ending money printing, silver (along with gold) should, there’s that word ‘should’, be skyrocketing higher.

It’s an apparent mystery; steeped with smoke-filled back rooms and intrigue.

The ‘Inflation’ Narrative

Let’s help unravel silver’s decline by taking a look at some of the facts.

First up, is ‘inflation’.

The inflation narrative is false. There; glad we got that out of the way. 🙂

How do we know?

We know it’s false because the price action itself, tells us it’s false.

It’s obvious at this point, what we have is supply destruction and not inflation.

The Economic ‘Connection’

Next up, is the economy.

Silver along with copper are industrial metals. They follow the economy … more so with copper. Copper futures are down – 32.5%, from their March 7th, highs.

Coper’s industrial uses are linked here. Nearly half of copper production is for building and construction.

Since the largest real estate bubble in world history has just popped, copper demand is essentially going to collapse.

If at this early stage of Great Depression 2.0, the average person can’t pay the phone bill, where are they going to get any money to drive precious metals demand higher?

Moving on to ‘truth’, we have price action.

Silver SLV, Weekly Close

The chart below has SLV, penetrating one support level (upper blue line) and just now, at the next support.

Since gold (GLD) is in position for an upward test of its wedge breakdown (chart not shown), it’s reasonable to expect another bounce off support for silver.

Using the ‘rule of alternation’, we already had a brief move off the first support level before reversing.

The next contact at lower support, will likely bounce for longer or not at all.

If silver can’t go higher … look out below.

Silver SLV, To Single Digits?

The economic depression is just getting started and industrial metals demand is already collapsing.

Although a data point of one, the following is significant.

Supporting the ‘depression’ assessment is this link; specifically, time stamp 3:20, with a recent graph of housing listings in California … going vertical.

SLV, is in position to test higher; thus, confirming the wedge pattern (grey lines) shown below.

Added to that pattern is a measured move target should SLV, break down to lower levels after an upward test.

There it is: ‘Mystery’ solved.

Silver is heading lower because price action said it would.

Now, the fundamentals are kicking in to add a potential mass acceleration to the decline.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials, Building Blocks

Infrastructure … Not Going To Happen

The infrastructure bill, right along with any kind of sustainable ‘recovery’ is just not in the charts.

Sure, the bill passed into ‘law’, if you can call it that; however, law and action are two different things.

We’ll get into more fundamentals behind why it’s not happening in tomorrow’s Random Notes … to be released later in the day.

One hint on why we’re not getting a major U.S. wide building program, there won’t be the manpower or supplies available … each for their own reasons.

That brings us to the chart of the sector.


The weekly chart shows how it looks going all the way back to early 2008.

If you did not immediately pick up on the right side’s message, it’s highlighted below … a massive bearish MACD divergence.

The divergence proposes that upside momentum for the sector is all but spent.

Let’s take a look at previous downside action and the current possibility.

Anybody that’s awake will not argue the current situation’s worse than 2007 – 2008.

If that’s the case, and if the market’s still alive at the bottom, DJUSBM could get as low, or lower than 2008 – 2009, levels.

A decline over 80%, is not uncommon for a bear/depression market. The Dow Jones 30, from top-to-bottom, during the Great Depression was around – 84%.

Inverse Fund, SMN

SMN is -2X inverse the DJSUBM.

However, this fund is not like inverse ETFs; SDS, DXD, SOXS, QID, DUST, and so on.

Basic Materials is not ‘popular’. At least, not yet.

That means the fund is illiquid with larger spreads (bid/ask). In addition, it takes a good few minutes after each open for those spreads to calm down and narrow up.

It’s not for the inexperienced.


As we’ll get into tomorrow, ‘normal’, is gone.

There’s not going to be ‘normal’ (a personal opinion) in the lifetimes of anyone reading these updates.

That doesn’t mean there are no opportunities.

Basic Materials, DJUSBM, is about to, or already has (potentially) started its downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s Your Fault !

‘You’re The Problem’

Here’s one guy that finally figured out gold’s not moving higher as expected (as he has been touting) in anticipation of ‘rampant’ inflation.

As a reminder, this site stated from the outset, there’s little-to-no inflation.

Prices going up are the result, in large part from the intentional destruction of the supply chain.

Why that’s happening is a topic for another time. One clue is, if you’re starving, you’ll do whatever you’re told.

However, let’s not digress.

So, what’s the reason gold (and silver) are not moving higher? Well, that’s easy:

It’s because of you!

Yes, you the ‘investor’ are the problem. You are the reason that gold and the mining stocks are not moving higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Since he (Schiff) ‘put it out there’, his reasons are fair game for discussion.

Performing A Public Service:

In a way, the linked article is a fantastic public service.

Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.

It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.

This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.

Brutal, But Beneficial:

Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.

Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.

There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.

For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.

No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.

With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.

For example:

If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?

Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.

We may be on the cusp of that now.

Not Advice:

With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.

Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.

What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.

What’s the market saying about itself?

If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.

Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX

What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.

GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:

The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.

They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’

It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.

One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.

Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.

Lastly, here’s a link to a previous analysis on GDX.

Decide for yourself whether or not that information provided a service and/or was useful and timely.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Now, It’s A Depression

3:43 p.m., EST

Recession’s over … Depression starts

Boots on the ground update from Dan at ‘I Allegedly’.

Drastically reduced economic activity at premium retail locations.

From Uneducated Economist: There’s news the lumber mills are going to curtail production … right in the middle of summer … the high season.

Couple that with the strange ‘going’s on’ reported at this link concerning the database that’s being monitored.

Then, we have another strange ‘coincidence‘ that takes place every hundred years like clockwork.

Which brings us to the sector at hand: Biotech

SPBIO Analysis:

We’ve taken the hourly chart of biotech SPBIO, and inverted it; shown below:

Price action pushed through the spring set up conditions noted in the last update.

SPBIO went on to retrace to the 38%, level … where it is now.

Looking at the price structure of inverse fund LABD (not shown), the downward thrust energy on a daily basis has declined significantly.

That analysis to be forthcoming.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Psychologically Unprepared

11:43 a.m., EST

When the break comes … it’s not coming back

Nearly 100-years ago, Wyckoff, stated:

‘If you can’t completely ignore the news and the financial press, you will never be successful in the markets’ (emphasis added).

In line with that, we have this: The very first sentence from this article out of barchart is questionable to say the least.


There is no rapid ‘re-opening’. There never was. There is no ‘pent up’ demand.

Massive credit card usage shows the U.S. consumer has been decimated; using credit just to survive.

It should be (but somehow for some, it’s not) obvious we’re in a controlled demolition of the economy (including the food supply) on a world-wide scale.


Price increases are the result of supply chain (also, controlled demolition) shutdown not inflation.

Uneducated Economist has probably done the best job of ‘boots on the ground’ work to completely dispel the inflation false narrative.

He called the current and now waning lumber price spike two years ago. That’s how you know who to trust or believe. Take a look at their past analysis and see how it ‘aged’.


The U.S. population collectively, has never experienced real hardship. Those who made it through the Great Depression have all but died off.

There is no one around to give said population a swift kick in the pants and tell them to ‘suck it up’.

Northman Trader

Sven Henrich has come out with an excellent market update, linked here.

Towards the end of his analysis he states; ‘when the break comes, it will be quick, deep, keep going and most (if not nearly all) will be psychologically unprepared.’

Which brings us to biotech.

LABD Analysis:

Biotech SPBIO, is back as downside leader: Down just over -25%, from its highs in February, this year.

The daily chart of (inverse fund) LABD is below. The market itself is showing us it wants to follow the repeating pattern of trendlines (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the entire structure (from the February low) is actually a trading channel, it’s hard not to overuse the word ‘massive’.

Non Confirmation:

As of this post, the Dow, the S&P and the Composite are unchanged to slightly higher. Yet biotech SPBIO, is down -1.2%.

We won’t know until it’s all over … but it looks like biotech could somehow be the catalyst (along with the dollar and gold?) that precipitates the final reversal in the overall market.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Depression Diaries

12:26 p.m., EST

The Great Depression is about to be eclipsed by ‘The Greater Depression’.

The Great Depression Diaries, is an excellent glimpse into the realities and timeline of a financial collapse.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

After watching and listening to all segments, if you changed the dates, you’d think it’s talking about the here and now.

Three key takeaways are:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

We can look at today’s payroll data as a pivot point. For whatever reason (out of work, being paid not to work), the economy’s not coming back.

The belief the economy’s going to be stronger once the benefits run out (as stated in the linked article) is false.

The current economy is being intentionally destroyed.

That’s not too hard to determine.

Here’s just one more bit of data (unverified, but still of note) to support that assessment.

If you’re unemployed, starving to death, you’ll be a ready face-diaper wearing compliant subject; easily coerced into being injected (executed).

Obviously, the goal is to be as independent, self-employed as possible so we’re not that person.

Which brings us to the culprit du jour: Biotech.

Yesterday, the expectation was for a reversal and test (that day) before SPBIO continued its downward trajectory (LABD higher).

It looks like the test is lasting two days (maybe more) instead of one.

Inverse fund, LABD is currently trading near 24.15. That’s right in the vicinity of the expected range between 23.90 – 24.30, stated yesterday.

LABD did push a little bit lower in the early session to 23.68, but still within expected range.

LABD is testing the right side channel line and trying its best to break through. Thus far, the low for the day remains at 23.68.

If there’s an upward (LABD) reversal from here, a Fibonacci Day 8, from the original Day 55 low, it would give more confirmation we’re at least following the trendline; potentially at the very right side of a huge trading range.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.