‘Pivot’, or ‘The Channel’

Who’s On First?

Evidently, according to this out on ZeroHedge, stocks will be a good buy when the Fed pivots; apparently getting back to 2%, inflation.

So many lies, half-truths and pre-suppositions, all in one sentence. Let us count the ways.

Actually, let’s not.

At this point in time, one does not want to draw any undue attention.

A better idea is to see what the market’s saying about itself. This is the crux of Wycoff analysis.

Wyckoff stated a century ago (1902, to be exact), stock prices moved based on an energy of their own; at times, completely disconnected from fundamentals.

Looking at those markets and from my own tracking spreadsheet, 106, indices or equities are currently monitored.

That list will change over time but it’s typically around 100 or more ticker-symbols.

Of that number, the following are those currently in a downward sloping trading channel.

The List

Looking at the charts on a weekly basis:

AEM, BBY, C, CAT, COF, CORN, CPER, CVX, DIA, DJ-20, DJUSBM, FCX, FMC, GDXJ, GLD, GM, HYG, IYR, PLD, SLV, TSM, USB, USO, WY, XLF, XOM, XOP

Others that may be about to confirm their channel:

IBB, MRNA, SPBIO, SPY

The Charts

Two examples are from the above list; the important part is we’re going to choose ‘heavy industry’.

Since nobody can seem to figure out the definition of ‘recession’, we’ll help them out a bit.

Caterpillar CAT, Weekly Chart:

The right trendline’s declining at approximately -67%, on an annualized basis.

Next up, FMC Corp.

FMC Corp., Weekly Chart:

FMC’s in a little better position with its right side declining at ‘only’ – 55%, annualized.

But wait, there’s more.

Since we’re on a roll; let’s throw in a bonus and include a market directly connected to the economy; Copper.

Bonus Chart:

United States Copper Fund, CPER, Weekly

Even with last week’s continued but fading S&P, short covering, CPER could not close higher.

Ruh-Roh.

CPER is heading south at a whopping -79%, annualized.

Ok, one more.

This one’s not quite yet confirmed but we’ll probably get a decision this coming week.

We saved the best (worst) for last

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

From the lows during the week ended June 17th, to last Friday’s high, was a Fibonacci 8-Weeks.

It’s also a near exact Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

On top of that, price action is testing the underside of resistance formed during the break below the 200-level at the beginning of the year.

If next week we see a pivot lower, MRNA’s potentially declining at a well-deserved, -84%, annualized.

Summary

We don’t have to listen to supposed experts and analysis ‘banter’. The charts themselves tell us the next probable direction, i.e., down

Who’s on First and What’s on Second.

The media?

Well, let’s just say they might find this link useful.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279