Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana, CarMax, to Rally?

May 30, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Reading The Tape

Rally? … Well, sort of for CarMax, and maybe for real, for Carvana (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since CarMax is the laggard, we’ll leave it alone for now and instead, focus on Carvana.

The last update said this (emphasis added):

“Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

So far, Carvana has refused to reverse.

Important to note, the disturbing Fibonacci time correlation. ‘Disturbing’, because we still have the fundamentals in play, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

It looks unbelievable, but there it is.

Note how perfectly CVNA, is respecting Fibonacci levels and time correlation(s).

We’re in the pre-market as of this post (8:54 a.m., EST) and CVNA, is trading slightly lower.

If we get sideways action today, then Monday June 2nd, is the contact point with the trend as shown.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sentiment … Volume … Price

May 24, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, CVNA-25-04, Michael Bordenaro, Positions Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Typical Phases of Reversal

Of course, it’s not obvious until it is, and then, it’s too late.

For Carvana, we definitely have the sentiment with the last earnings release.

A stellar quarter, but the future, not so much.

In just over two-weeks since then, bond prices are lower, rates higher and threatening to completely unravel, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Let’s put our recent (short) positioning activity into perspective.

That tiny little ‘blip’, at the far right, is where we’ve been attempting to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The area is expanded, below.

Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

That puts us at, The Danger Point®

Note that volume is contracting with Friday’s close, below the prior tops.

We have ‘sentiment’, now ‘volume’, then (maybe) price.

Positioning

Friday’s close could have been that ‘price’ part of the equation. We’ll see in the coming week.

The last update said, if there was buoyancy, CVNA-25-03, may be exited; that’s what happened.

Then, right at the close, another short: CVNA-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Sweats The ‘Test’

May 23, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, Positions 1 Comment

Testing The Break

Yesterday, Carvana launched into a test of its trend break, shown in Wednesday’s update, link here.

This morning’s pre-market action is ever-so-slightly lower (7:32 a.m., EST); we’ll have to see what happens next.

If yesterday’s high holds, Carvana is posting lower highs, and lower lows, the definition of a downtrend.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The stop for (short) CVNA-25-03, remains at 306.98.

However, if we have continued buoyancy during this session, there may be a discretionary exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tops, at 311.88

May 14, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Positions

Very Close, To ‘310’

If the high holds, the difference between 310, and 311.88, is 0.61%. 🙂

The link above, actually says “310-area“, so either way, it’s close.

Of course, it’s what happens next that’s important.

One thing that can be said with some confidence, Carvana is at The Danger Point®.

This is the area where the risk is least, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There it is: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Around mid-session, as CVNA was continuing its breakout (prices rising), a short was opened: CVNA-25-02, with stop at the session high, 311.88 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Testing The Highs

May 12, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Positions, Up-Thrust

Watch The Volume

The last update said:

“A New (closing) High?”

That’s what happened with CVNA, closing out that session (5/8/25), at 285.53.

If there are no new daily highs from here, CVNA is either posting a (potential) double top or an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the technical item to watch, is the volume and the prior session’s high, 284.23 (as a stop level).

If volume contracts from the previous session, it’s possible the highs have been tested and we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At 2:30 p.m., EST, it’s still a long way to the close; we won’t know until then.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s, Car Fire

May 8, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A New (closing) High?

Carvana’s going straight up.

Last night, post earnings release (here and here), it was a wild session.

That action’s spilling over into today.

The question, as we’ll see below, can CVNA, close above the prior (closing) high of 285.33.

As of this post (10:38 a.m., EST), it’s printing 287.67.

Set-Up, Review

Before getting to the chart, let’s review this post.

Time & Target were forecasted in that update (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, here we are. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 55’.

When working with larger Fibonacci timeframes, +/- a few days is an acceptable margin.

Long-time visitors to this site know exactly what you’re looking at: Wyckoff, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Those who are new or want to review, this is a good place to start, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279