Category Archives: KMX

Carvana Tests the Breakdown

November 9, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-15-15, KMX, Positions 1 Comment

Did The ‘Shorts’ Give Up?

Just as Carvana appears poised for a significant move lower, short interest has actually decreased, substantially.

According to data at this link, short interest has declined over -15%, from the previous month to just 5.6% of shares outstanding.

After relentless buoyancy for years, the shorts may have given up just as CVNA, could be poised for the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, rival CarMax has completely imploded (fired the CEO); down -79.25% as of last Friday’s close.

While we’re at it, the all-time high for CVNA, was July 31st, at 413.33, just another ‘coincidence’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

As of last Friday, we’re at the axis line of support and resistance.

Volume declined when compared to the previous session, suggesting there’s not much commitment to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading Results

Meanwhile, using the volatility, Carvana is being traded to the short-side.

There’s no ‘positioning’ as yet (the desired action), but nonetheless, swings are being used for respectable profit.

The last completed trade, CVNA-25-15, went short at 308.48, last Thursday; covered the next day at 289.25, for a modest gain of 6.7%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Bounces At Trend

June 9, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Grinding Higher, To Target(s)

Carvana could reverse right here and now. Anything can happen.

With that said, when looking at the chart, Carvana continues to grind higher to the next Fibonacci target(s).

We’re talking about targets (plural) because CVNA, price action’s exhibiting both time and distance characteristics, presented in the last update, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

If the rally continues and makes it to target at ‘Day 89’, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Hitting all-time-highs, think of the hysteria; exactly what would be needed to look for a short opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

All the while, competitor CarMax, continues trending, lower.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, CarMax, to Rally?

May 30, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Reading The Tape

Rally? … Well, sort of for CarMax, and maybe for real, for Carvana (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since CarMax is the laggard, we’ll leave it alone for now and instead, focus on Carvana.

The last update said this (emphasis added):

“Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

So far, Carvana has refused to reverse.

Important to note, the disturbing Fibonacci time correlation. ‘Disturbing’, because we still have the fundamentals in play, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

It looks unbelievable, but there it is.

Note how perfectly CVNA, is respecting Fibonacci levels and time correlation(s).

We’re in the pre-market as of this post (8:54 a.m., EST) and CVNA, is trading slightly lower.

If we get sideways action today, then Monday June 2nd, is the contact point with the trend as shown.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will It Bounce?

April 6, 2025 By in 1987, CVNA, KMX, Martin Zweig, ZeroHedge

Carvana, In Position

Yesterday, it was CarMax.

Today, it’s Carvana.

Before we get to Carvana, yesterday’s update also said, we’d have no shortage of ‘post-mortems’.

Well, here they are:

“Mr. Market Will Keep Searching (Lower) For A Put Strike” – Goldman Hedge Fund Honcho Warns ‘Trading Environment Remains Exceedingly Fluid’

Why It Should Not Bounce Here Yet

Why It Should Bounce

You can’t make this up. Those two headlines (above) were one after another on ZeroHedge.

That’s probably enough. You get the idea. 🙂

In the case of Carvana, let’s look at what the price action is telling us is the most likely event.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

After-Hours on April 2nd, trading posted briefly at 243.6, within the purple oval, creating an ‘Up-Thrust’.

Last Friday’s action penetrated support and is holding.

Note the price range of that day’s bar is less than Thursday’s, with volume slightly larger.

For now, CVNA, has stopped dead at support.

There may be follow-through on Monday, but with the (YouTube) crowd and others expecting a ‘crash’, that makes is less likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

When a real expert warns of a crash, it may look something like this (time stamp 6:42).

Note the condescension from the other panel member.

Then came Monday, October 19th, 1987.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279