Category Archives: KMX

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Bounces At Trend

June 9, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Grinding Higher, To Target(s)

Carvana could reverse right here and now. Anything can happen.

With that said, when looking at the chart, Carvana continues to grind higher to the next Fibonacci target(s).

We’re talking about targets (plural) because CVNA, price action’s exhibiting both time and distance characteristics, presented in the last update, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

If the rally continues and makes it to target at ‘Day 89’, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Hitting all-time-highs, think of the hysteria; exactly what would be needed to look for a short opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

All the while, competitor CarMax, continues trending, lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, CarMax, to Rally?

May 30, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Reading The Tape

Rally? … Well, sort of for CarMax, and maybe for real, for Carvana (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since CarMax is the laggard, we’ll leave it alone for now and instead, focus on Carvana.

The last update said this (emphasis added):

“Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

So far, Carvana has refused to reverse.

Important to note, the disturbing Fibonacci time correlation. ‘Disturbing’, because we still have the fundamentals in play, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

It looks unbelievable, but there it is.

Note how perfectly CVNA, is respecting Fibonacci levels and time correlation(s).

We’re in the pre-market as of this post (8:54 a.m., EST) and CVNA, is trading slightly lower.

If we get sideways action today, then Monday June 2nd, is the contact point with the trend as shown.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will It Bounce?

April 6, 2025 By in 1987, CVNA, KMX, Martin Zweig, ZeroHedge

Carvana, In Position

Yesterday, it was CarMax.

Today, it’s Carvana.

Before we get to Carvana, yesterday’s update also said, we’d have no shortage of ‘post-mortems’.

Well, here they are:

“Mr. Market Will Keep Searching (Lower) For A Put Strike” – Goldman Hedge Fund Honcho Warns ‘Trading Environment Remains Exceedingly Fluid’

Why It Should Not Bounce Here Yet

Why It Should Bounce

You can’t make this up. Those two headlines (above) were one after another on ZeroHedge.

That’s probably enough. You get the idea. 🙂

In the case of Carvana, let’s look at what the price action is telling us is the most likely event.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

After-Hours on April 2nd, trading posted briefly at 243.6, within the purple oval, creating an ‘Up-Thrust’.

Last Friday’s action penetrated support and is holding.

Note the price range of that day’s bar is less than Thursday’s, with volume slightly larger.

For now, CVNA, has stopped dead at support.

There may be follow-through on Monday, but with the (YouTube) crowd and others expecting a ‘crash’, that makes is less likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

When a real expert warns of a crash, it may look something like this (time stamp 6:42).

Note the condescension from the other panel member.

Then came Monday, October 19th, 1987.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Breakdown

March 17, 2025 By in KMX

Coming Back To Test

After two-and-a-half years, CarMax, finally breaks down out of its wedge.

Now, it looks like it’s coming back up to test resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see, buried within the price action of that breakdown, is a Fibonacci time correlation.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Two and a half years coiling in a wedge, then a breakdown, suggests whatever’s coming next may be a sustained move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tests can pass or fail. In the markets, anything can happen.

The up-thrust spike was covered here and (the potential) ahead of time, here and here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279