Category Archives: LABD-22-13

The Set-Up … Goldman, ‘Gives Up’

December 4, 2022 By in Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-06, Goldman, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, ZeroHedge

Right At The Pivot

That’s the way it looks at this point as we’ll see below.

The ZeroHedge article in question, is linked here.

You can see, it starts off (before being grey-ed out) with referencing the Non-Farm Payrolls report; a report, that another article calls ‘rigged’. So, there’s that.

With each passing day, it’s ever more apparent, price action itself, is telling us the most probable market direction.

Just to prove the point, Blackstone’s sending out a ‘talking points‘ memo to keep clients calm and help ‘guide the conversation’ … i.e., ‘thought shaping’.

Thoughts ‘shaped’ or take action.

For this update, we’re taking action; looking at what the real estate market is telling us.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Let’s go back to the IYR, update from late October.

It showed the most probable direction; a move higher into a test, giving both the location, and the date.

Fast forward, to now:

We’re right at 38.2%, retrace and on time with Fibonacci Week-8, from the lows.

The daily chart shows a possible up-thrust (reversal) and test … the very same day that Goldman ‘gives-up’.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Not shown on the daily; from the lows, October 13th, to the (print) high, December 1st, is a Fibonacci 34 (+1) Days.

Volume increased on the reversal bar December 1st, and then contracted on the upward test the next day … pointing probabilities to the downside.

Printing a new daily low at the next session, will help confirm the reversal.

Summary

Let’s see what happens next.

The Goldman report may be contrary indicator; telling us the ‘professionals’ are throwing in the towel, changing their approach right at a potential top.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-13: Closed

It’s become apparent from this article; the truth, that was counted on as a tail-wind (for a short position) is not going to come out anytime soon.

Those that know, already know.

Moving on to other markets (below) that will be affected by the consequences of biotech.

DRV-22-06:

Short real estate IYR, via DRV (not advice, not recommendation)

Entry @ 48.39***: Soft Stop @ 47.53***, Hard Stop @ 45.11***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Forecast … Pivot or Not

December 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

Multiple Scenarios, Going Forward

The ability to see multiple scenarios is like a Rorschach Test.

With each additional tick on the chart, it takes on a different character.

So, let’s look at what’s most likely, based on where we are now with one of, if not the weakest sectors; biotech SPBIO.

For reference, we’ll start with the big picture … the weekly chart to show the two-month long, bear flag.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, is the daily for the past several months.

We’re at The Danger Point®; the test, where there’s not much distance between pass and fail.

Price action can (easily) go either way.

SPBIO, Daily

However, from a probability standpoint, we’ve been in a bear flag for months; the expectation is the test will pass, price action reverses and we get a downside breakout.

The hourly chart has the most likely potential outcome.

Pre-market action shows flat (as of 9:08 a.m., EST).

SPBIO, Hourly

The chart has two likely scenarios: one pass, one fail.

A less likely outcome is a straight up launch above resistance.

However, anything can happen.

Summary

With the Fed out talking hawkish again, we’ll say it again; there is no ‘pivot’.

Whether or not the press is intentionally miss-directing the narrative, in a sense, does not matter.

We’re looking at the price action.

Right now, it says, we’re at a dangerous spot and may be about to pivot (pun intended) to the downside.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

No change since yesterday.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13:

Entry @ 18.72: Stop @ TBD

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Can It Get Any More Dangerous ?

November 30, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff

Testing The Reversals

First, some housekeeping.

This morning’s action in biotech SPBIO, forced exit of LABD-22-12, with a minimal loss of -0.12% (not advice, not a recommendation)

There was a bounce off SPBIO, resistance in the early session and then, it became clear the market was setting up to penetrate that resistance.

As the Fed announcement progressed, SPBIO, indeed moved up sharply.

Reversal Set-Up

By definition, such action puts SPBIO, in a test of a prior Up-Thrust (reversal) from 11/11/22 – 11/15/22.

Conversely, it puts the leveraged inverse fund LABD, in a test of a Spring set-up during the same period.

You can already see where this is going.

The work has been done on a fundamental basis as well as technical; biotech is set for significant downside.

Whether or not, we’re at that inflection point right now, is unknown.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Looking at the mark-up below, we’ve had a spring set-up; then, sign of demand with action moving higher and finally today, a test of that spring set-up.

David Weis used to call such drastic moves a ‘gut-check’, to see if you can hang on (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action has come right back to support with a wide bar and high volume.

Such bars increase the probability of a counter move to test which in this case, is a move higher.

Summary

Remember, all this action’s occurring ‘within’, the SPBIO, bear flag that’s formed over two-plus months.

It seems like a huge understatement to say this market and the main indices, are in a dangerous position.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Like a Terrier on a Mailman’s leg, we’re not giving up on biotech’s potential downside … at least not yet.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13***:

Entry @ 18.72***: Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279