Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.
The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.
However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂
Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.
Then, The Fed
Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’
To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:
“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.
That may tell us all we need to know.
But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.
However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?
Short answer is, no.
So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?
With that, let’s take a look at the chart.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).
If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).
Loeb & Focus
Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton
He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.
With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.
Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
On the daily bar-chart (not shown), we have a massive gap-lower open.
Will that gap be filled or is this a real breakaway and the start of a long-sustained bubble deflating decline?
That of course, is unknown.
What is known and presented on this site, Wyckoff analysis, with its century old technique, spotted the potential for reversal well ahead of the actual fact (not advice, not a recommendation).
Final Note
As the sidebar shows, since the beginning of this year, there have been several attempts to position short in the SOXX via leveraged inverse fund SOXS.
Trades SOXS-25-01 (not discussed), and SOXS-25-02, were first, then closed, with trade SOXS-25-03, opened last Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.
Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.
Not so, today.
Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.
Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close
The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.
The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.
If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
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