Category Archives: XLV-25-03

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce?

May 16, 2025 By in Health Care, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XLV, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

How Far, How Long?

Two major hits to UnitedHealth (UNH), in the past four days, here and here.

Let’s throw in this one as well, and make it an even three, link here, website link here. Is that why the healthcare costs are going up unexpectedly?

The Wall Street Journal, UnitedHealth, and ZeroHedge, may have presented conditions for an interim low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The press is usually last and typically presents (these days, anyway) nothing new.

The price action itself, told us something was wrong.

United Health UNH, Daily

Massive, historic volume for UNH, may indicate a temporary bottom and retrace to test Fibonacci levels.

Separately, the XLV short XLV-25-03 was closed with 6.93% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Air Products, Reversal

May 9, 2025 By in APD, APD-25-01, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-03

Another One (short)

Air Products (APD) has set-up for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart has a similar pattern to Health Care Sector (XLV), in this update.

In fact, it’s almost identical.

Air Products (APD), Daily

Price spiked May 1st, on the earnings release.

More, at this link.

A short position was opened today, around mid-session: APD-25-01, with a stop at or near the day’s high; APD 272.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279