Alcoa: Another ‘Chief Cook’

March 18, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, Wyckoff, The Speck, CVNA, ZeroHedge, AA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Speck-Effect

Yet, One More ‘ESG’ Opportunity

However, before we get started, this just out concerning Biotech:

From the German Health Minister, no less:

In a way, it does tie into the Alcoa analysis.

As a reminder, the economic (and population) collapse created by protection from ‘The Speck’, will last the lifetime of anyone reading this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

To support that statement and expand on the enormity of what’s happening, we have this link.

‘Over the next 10 years, ‘Speck’ lawsuits are projected to experience tremendous growth.’

With that, let’s move on.

Alcoa & ESG

Just looking at the website, it’s an ESG cornucopia.

When looking at the chart, it’s (almost) a no-brainer.

First, the very long-term view (Quarterly)

Alcoa AA, Quarterly

On the long-term, we have the repeating market characteristic; ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

A ‘test’ of that up-thrust has been occurring over the most recent quarter.

On the weekly chart, we see price action penetrated support with volume increasing.

Alcoa AA, Weekly

Technically, it’s a Wyckoff ‘Spring’ set-up. Some form of upward action next week is to be expected.

However, with the increased volume to the downside, probabilities are low at this point we’ll see any significant upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Way To The ‘Open’

As said in the prior update, events are accelerating. The latest from ZeroHedge proves that to be true.

UBS Seeks Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover Deal As Soon As Tonight

Another Nail in the Coffin

Looks like the Swedes have put another nail in the coffin for ESG. How long is it going to take for their pension system to fully collapse and then result in social unrest a la Paris?

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Intel … ‘Penny Stock’ by Year End ?

March 4, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Barron's, CVNA, INTC, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Trading Channel

Beginning next week, we’re about to find out if Intel (INTC) is on track to be a ‘penny stock’, by year-end.

Stocks trading below $5/share, are technically called ‘Penny Stocks‘, and mostly ignored by institutional money.

Dystopian Hell: The Stage Is Set

INTC, has already cut the dividend by 66% (note the symbolism) and is ‘conserving cash’.

A large part of their operation with 18,600 employees, is just outside Portland, Oregon.

Here’s a recent look at Portland, uploaded two months ago.

‘Gee honey. Let’s take the kids and move to Portland … Not.’

Incredible, that ‘Speck Protection’ is STILL being pushed (time stamp 2:11). How would you like to work at a location at this late date, where it’s normal to wear a mask?

So, it goes.

All of this brings us to the chart. The price action itself defines the next likely course (Wyckoff).

Intel INTC, Weekly Close

Last week closed testing underside resistance and potential right-side trend line contact (second chart).

Compressing the chart and expanding the downside scale, gives us the following.

Just in case anyone’s skeptical about ‘channels’ not being a real potential, here’s the latest look at Carvana (CVNA).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly Close

It’s important to note, not only the channel but the location of “No P/E”, which was the release of this post.

Carvana never closed higher after December 11th, 2021.

Intel, What’s Next?

Will it be the same for Intel?

Of course, that’s not known. Price action itself is the final arbiter; at this juncture, it’s at The Danger Point®

This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

If price action moves significantly higher from here, let’s say 5%, then we’ve likely bottomed and are heading into a rebound.

If not, and Monday, opens and closes lower, it may be a confirmation of the right-side trend line and potential trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Breakout

February 26, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, The Speck, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, $SPSIBI

‘The Court Jester’

Court jesters reveal truths like no other.

How appropriate then, that someone who typically plays the ‘village idiot’ comes out with the truth.

Whether the ‘false narrative’ is finally crumbling or not, is not directly related to analyzing price action.

It does, however, provide the backdrop.

The ‘Big Reveal’

The last update in biotech had this to say (emphasis added):

“If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.“

What wasn’t known, was just exactly how the truth would come out. Now, we know.

All of which, brings us to the topic at hand: Biotech SPBIO.

It turns out, SPBIO, is trading most consistently, on a three-day pattern.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

In Wyckoff terms, the market itself defines what timeframes and what support/resistance levels are important.

Next up, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic the price action observed on the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day, Inverted

And now, the characteristics of this sector the market itself, has revealed.

At this juncture, SPBIO, trades in a sequence of 3-Days after which, if there’s a directional move, continues on for nine consecutive bars.

After nine-bars, price action typically enters a correction for an undetermined amount of time.

After the correction’s compete the market has (in the past) continued on a directional move for another nine-bars.

Then & Now

We’re currently in a directional move that’s five ‘3-Day Bars’ in thus far.

If the market adheres to its prior behavior(s), we have at least four more ‘three-days’ to go (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, the current reversal was identified to the day, with this update:

“However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).”

The fact the congestion period for SPBIO has taken so long to (apparently) resolve itself, has produced the potential for price action to go farther, last longer than anyone would normally expect.

That move if it happens, connects well with the introduction at the top of this post; a large part of the public has been informed in no uncertain terms, it was all a lie.

The needle, and the damage done.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

February 1, 2023 By thedangerpoint in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, IYR, Michael Cowan, Real Estate, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Do Not Collect $200

Go Stright To Economic ‘Depression’

And, that’s where we are ladies and gentlemen.

Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’

By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.

That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!

‘Entertain Me’

YouTuber, Michael Cowan, has picked up the story.

You can hear the frustration in his voice (time stamp 1:31) as everybody seems to be waiting to be ‘entertained’ with a crash before they do anything.

It’s a good thing we’re not part of that ‘crowd’, right? 🙂

Lions and Tigers and The Fed, Oh My!

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?

We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.

The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.

The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally

Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.

Chart by macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net

Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.

Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.

There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.

However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Precious Metals … Silver & Gold

January 15, 2023 By thedangerpoint in GLD, Mannarino, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

The ‘Non-Confirmation’

Something’s not right in the precious metals sector.

Gold’s just off -8%, from its highs while other monetary metals (Palladium, Platinum, Silver) are far below their highs; silver’s off a whopping -51.75%, from its 2011, highs.

In addition, as we’ll see below, silver (SLV) is just now contacting the right side of a trend line and potential downward channel structure that goes all the way back to the lows of 2015.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Below on the weekly chart of SLV, is a point labeled “1”.

That’s the location of what turned out to be a right-side trend line contact. Back then, an update on the ‘squeeze’ was posted, linked here.

Taken from that update was the following (emphasis added):

Those attempting garner forces (the little guy) to move the markets, such as silver, will find out soon enough who’s in control … and it’s not them.

It’s unlikely silver is going higher any time soon. There could be some upward spasms as the crowded trade exhausts itself; it’s likely we’ve seen the SLV highs for quite some time.

So, here we are nearly two years later; SLV never posted higher than the February 2nd, squeeze of 2021.

So, what’s next? Is there something else going on?

We’ll look at that question after the charts.

Silver SLV, Weekly

First, is the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a pattern that’s not so clear without mark-up.

For SLV, to break out, there needs to be an absence of motivated sellers (prices drift higher) or sufficient buying demand to overcome the downward trend.

Inflection Point

For an idea of what’s likely to happen next, we’re going to go to an unlikely source; Daniela Cambone and Gregory Mannarino.

It’s not about ‘controlling’ inflation and it never was, going all the way back to 1913. It’s about the ‘end game’, as discussed by Mannarino.

“Eliminate The Middle Class” (time stamp 11:40)

The sticky wicket is the ‘debt bubble’ and the ‘elephant’.

The Elephant Grows

The chart of silver (and other precious metals) and its non-confirmation with gold, could be an indicator of debt collapse and demand collapse first, before hyperinflation.

Multiple times a day now we have reports like the following flooding into the marketplace:

COVID Vaccines Are “Obviously Dangerous” And Should Be Halted Immediately, Say Senior Swedish Doctors

‘Normalization’ Of Emergency Use Authorizations Concerns Health Experts

CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation

They Promised “Safe And Effective”; We Got “Sudden And Unexpected”

Pentagon “Exploring” Back-Pay For Troops Kicked Out Over COVID Vaccine Mandate

Multiple Young Athletes And Former Athletes Died Suddenly This Past Month

Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research

The above list is just since yesterday and it’s only 2:00 p.m., Central Time, today!!!

Monetary & Manufacturing

Silver is unique more so than gold, in that it’s an industrial metal as well as monetary.

The collapse in manufacturing demand could be the reason silver’s not confirming gold’s move.

It may also be telling us, as the effects of the elephant take hold, a huge liquidation of all assets could be coming; paradoxically as the need for fiat cash (not precious metals) to pay off debt, increases.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

January 13, 2023 By thedangerpoint in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Behind The Scenes

January 10, 2023 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, IBB, BIS, DXD, Wyckoff, Positions, David Weis, SOXS, ZeroHedge, SDS, QID, Speck-Effect, BIS-23-01

The Big Reveal

Was yesterday, the infection point?

Was that the day where irrefutable evidence like this is going to stick?

Price action of Biotech Sector IBB, has posted a long awaited and anticipated reversal signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll look at that below.

The IBB, Up-Thrust & Reversal

As a reminder, in Wyckoff terms, an ‘up-thrust’ is where price action struggles above known resistance for some period of time and then reverses to the downside.

In the case of IBB, that ‘struggle’ lasted an incredible seven-weeks.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Price action attempted to break above resistance for nearly two-months, before reversing lower.

Then we had an initial test during the week of 12/23/22 (on the daily for three days), and a secondary test last week.

Biotech IBB, Daily

The daily shows more detail on the struggle.

Point No. 1, was the initial test. Point No. 2, was the secondary test which appears to have decisively failed.

Pre-market action shows IBB, set to open slightly lower.

If it does, then expectation is for some (brief) attempt to rally as a test of the breakdown.

The Driving Force

For years, this site has not wavered in the assessment, what’s happening in this sector, will be the driving force for the entire market on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

It’s unknown if yesterday was ‘the day’.

What is known however, evidence is building on a massive scale. Every day, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects.

Positioning

This site presents the data, the insight and price action nuances. It does not give recommendations.

With that said, going short this sector is not as straightforward as the other major indices.

IBB, may be shorted directly but will likely result in a maintenance fee from the broker.

Of course, that puts one on the hook for the sector’s dividend payment (currently yielding 0.31%).

The other option is 2X leveraged inverse fund BIS.

However, this fund’s volume is thin … meaning it’s not nearly as liquid as the other inverse funds such as SDS, DXD, QID, SOXS and so on.

It’s up to the trader/speculator to participate or not.

We’re about fifteen-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Claus & Effect, The Next Wave

December 24, 2022 By thedangerpoint in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Catherine Austin Fitts, CVNA, NFLX, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, TGT, The Speck, Useful Idiots, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unprecedented … Again

Nefarious forces operate in distraction and darkness.

“And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.”

The year 2021, was the year everyone (except children) showed their true colors; they made their decision, knowingly or not, for darkness or light.

This year, 2022, is where the effects (or ‘side effects’) of that decision began to take hold.

Now, as 2023 approaches, we’re likely to move into the realm of unprecedented chaos and collapse.

As if on cue, under the cloak of this week’s holiday distraction, we have what’s possibly the next wave.

This could be the reason as presented in the last update, why biotech appears to be in the early stages of disconnecting from the overall market.

That separation may continue or not; price action is always the final arbiter.

The ‘Woke’ Go Broke

The useful idiots that comprise the ‘woke’ business crowd may be in for the biggest surprise in the coming year.

If there is one overriding theme to keep in mind for 2023, this could be it.

Separate enclaves are now forming of those who have not, will not, and are not going to go along with the ever more unbelievable narratives.

Here is a link to just one of those enclaves.

As a digression; in Texas, we’re just now coming out of yet another record-breaking cold spell.

That’s two, never before seen record breaking low temp events within the past three years!

How does that fit with the global warming narrative?

Anyone awake knows full well what’s going on … and it’s not global warming.

Who’s On First: NFLX or TGT?

Now that vending machine Carvana (CVNA), is out of the way, who’s next?

Partly as a result of economic decline and partly from the decision to take consumer spending elsewhere, Netflix and Target now appear ready to continue their implosion.

More on their technical chart conditions in the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279