Biotech … Breakdown, Imminent

Waiting For A New Daily Low

Price action leads the news.

As with the Carvana analysis, a year ago which said CVNA, would likely not survive, so too it would appear, biotech is about to join the ranks.

Join the ranks but for different reasons.

Price action leading the news was a concept presented decades ago by Robert Prechter Jr., as part of his Elliott Wave Theory.

His view was the market indicates ‘social mood’; in that case, the market must go down first, before the bad news comes out.

In effect, the public has to be ready and actually want bad news and/or be ready for unexpected, cataclysmic events.

It’s the complete opposite of the accepted mantra, from financial advisors and media alike.

The bear flag in biotech SPBIO, has been forming now for three months. In the history of this sector, there’s never been anything like it.

The last update said there’s been a change in the character of price action; that SPBIO, is heading lower and about to threaten the bottom of the flag.

As we’ll see from the daily chart, indeed we’re getting close.

At this point, there’s no apparent demand for the upside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The change in character is clear. We’re pulling away from the top of the flag and now, hovering at the lows.

Switching gears and going to the 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the daily basis, we see repeating trend lines.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

As the magenta arrow shows, we’re looking for a new daily high in LABD, to confirm the trendline; that high would naturally correspond to a new daily low in SPBIO.

As of this post (1:02 p.m., EST) neither one has occurred.


Even as the overall markets are mixed to slightly higher, SPBIO, is posting down – 1.51%; a possible indication it may lead to the downside.

Just exactly what ‘news’ is about to come out is unknown.

However, at this juncture with action pressing lower, it appears, the market is ready.


Not advice, not a recommendation.


Entry@ 18.905, 18.95*** Stop @ 18.36***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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