Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Carvana on Fumes

December 15, 2025 By in CVNA

Early Session, Inside Bar

It’s been a streak of Fibonacci 13-higher closes in a row, until last Friday.

Friday was ‘outside-down’. Today, we’re trading inside that bar (so far).

At this juncture (early session) CVNA is posting slightly below the minor resistance points (the closes) shown in the chart

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The condition is very subtle and there’s been no real sign of supply … just a potential softening of demand.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone ‘Crash’

December 14, 2025 By in AZO, Wyckoff

Wide, High-Volume Bar

AutoZone’s down -21.48% from all-time highs with -13.78% of that, in just December, alone.

Price action posted a wide, high-volume bar on earnings, that ‘missed’.

What we’re looking for now, is a test of that wide bar; then, to see if AZO rolls over into a (sustained) decline, or if that was the end of the current down move (not advice, not a recommendation).

AutoZone AZO, Daily

At this point, there’s been no follow-through after hitting support which suggests there could be a ‘spring’ attempt.

On a weekly basis (not shown), the downthrust energy Force Index, was the second highest ever, for AZO.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Parabolic’ Phase

December 12, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’

Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?

From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.

That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SV, Daily

From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the trendline could hold.

SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Anatomy of a Reversal

December 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Wyckoff Schematic

An excellent schematic tutorial on Wyckoff, can be found here.

Going to the link, scrolling down to ‘Distribution’, we have a schematic that includes the notation “UTAD”.

UTAD, stands for, Upthrust After Distribution.

The accompanying text for the schematic indicates the distribution has already taken place; UTAD, is essentially a ‘last gasp’ to see if there’s any more demand.

A fascinating question would be, ‘Was the heavy volume associated with this update an indication of distribution?’

Does that mean the subsequent blip higher in this update, was essentially UTAD?

Biotech XBI, Hourly

The heavy volume (potential) distribution is noted.

If this is a correct view of XBI, then right now, it’s at The Danger Point®; where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Hangs at The Wedge

December 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Waiting for The Fed?

The last update on biotech presented what was thought to be a reversal condition.

The huge downward thrust with volume, was taken as the clue, some large entity or entities (may) have just exited the market.

Well, it’s been seven trading days since then and it looks like we might be at a pivot point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) was nearly textbook. The only thing absent, was a lower close for that day.

We’re now hovering at the edge.

The Fed announcement is just over an hour away.

Anything can happen.

MACD (magenta arrow) shows momentum has slowed and lines have crossed to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Spotify … A Second Look

December 9, 2025 By in AZO, ORLY, ORLY-25-01, SPOT, SPOT-25-04, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

New Target(s)

Even as yesterday’s update was being released, SPOT price action started negating the analysis.

So, let’s take another look to see if opportunity lies ahead.

Before getting started, note auto parts (AZO, ORLY) are down hard in today’s session; the potential for which, indicated just two days prior.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

A push above the 603 – 604, puts SPOT in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition while at the same time, being at the 23.6% retrace level.

When looking at the long-term quarterly chart (not shown), there’s significant resistance at the 615.6 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SPOT(ify) in The Channel

December 8, 2025 By in SPOT, SPOT-25-04 1 Comment

Already Down, Over -29%

The last update on Spotify was back in August, link here.

SPOT’s down another – 20% since then, and over -29%, from the all-time highs.

The chart shows we’re in a trading channel.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

At this juncture, downward thrust (net) distance is slowing somewhat.

However, price action is near the right downtrend line and may pivot lower to confirm (not advice, not a recommendation).

The set-up is not ideal.

Obvious locations for a stop (if short) are today’s high, yesterday’s high or a decisive break of the right side trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the channel is a Fibonacci 8-Days wide.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Parts … Roll-Over

December 7, 2025 By in AZO, CVNA, ORLY, ORLY-25-01 1 Comment

All-Time Highs, Months Ago

While Carvana’s set for all-time highs on Monday, the opposite side of the sector, auto parts, have already rolled over.

Both AutoZone and O’Reilly reached their peak(s) this past September.

Then, last week, both of them posted an outside-down (reversal) bar.

O’Reilly is the more liquid of the two; we’ll review it first.

O’Reilly Automotive, ORLY, Daily

With a potential downtrend line (dashed blue-line), we’re currently hovering at minor support (dashed grey line).

Fibonacci time correlations are apparent.

As said before, as soon as everyone ‘figures it out’ (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ….), time correlations morph into chaos, or re-appear later (i.e., 55).

Note: Fibonacci 8-Days, between major downward thrusts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279