Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana, What Could Go Wrong?

February 11, 2025 By in CVNA, ZeroHedge

How About That P/E, ‘only’ 32,000 !!!

A ‘Supernova’ P/E.

Will it blow up?

If so, when?

Earnings release, scheduled for the 19th (after-hours), link here.

Possible Outcome(s)

Here’s a hint of what’s likely to happen, link here and here.

So, one month after the election (and now that all is well) the ‘consumer’ is back at it; profligate spending.

The spending ‘surge’ may have spilled over into the auto sector; possible result, positive earnings for CVNA (not advice, not a recommendation).

You can almost see where this is going.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Carvana has just posted a new daily high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hugs The Line

January 24, 2025 By in CVNA, SOXX

Morbid Curiosity

Is Carvana the ‘Enron’ of our time?

Back in the day, it seemed like Enron was everywhere.

Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, sponsored by Enron, remember that?

At this point, it’s somewhat of a morbid curiosity to see how this all plays out.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

This week was a short-range bar when compared to the week before.

Upward momentum appears to be slowing.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Taps The ‘Break’

January 13, 2025 By in CVNA Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Was That It?

Is Carvana just like Wile E. Coyote, where he heads off the cliff, hangs for a moment, then looks down?

When looking at the weekly chart, we see the trend break and then what looks like a test.

The question is, was that it?

Carvana, CVNA, Weekly

As shown above, the nuance that hints at continued lower prices, not a more protracted test, is today’s open; that is, it’s below, last week’s close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

From a corporate standpoint, no positions (long or short) are planned for CVNA.

We’re just noting the price action, providing the analysis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … What’s Next?

January 9, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

Circus About To Start

For the longest time we’ve heard from various sources, polite ‘head scratching’, on Carvana’s ‘numbers’.

Now, it looks like the wheels are coming off and the circus is about to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

This Hindenburg Research reads like we’ve seen (a hint of) that before, here, here, and here.

However, scrolling through Hindenburg’s report, their ‘list’ is nothing short (no pun intended) of incredible.

Go-Forward Model

Years ago, during an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests discussed a bad earnings release from a major firm.

Louis asked him (to the effect) if he thought the worst of the earnings were over?

His response was:

‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Taps The Trend

December 29, 2024 By in CVNA, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter

What Happens Next?

The last update on Carvana, link here, identified the potential for downside reversal.

That’s what we got 🙂

Now, as we’ll see in the chart below, CVNA is right at the trendline.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

We’re at the trend, but there’s a slight possibility price action will rebound (off the trendline) to the area noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s add this insight from Greg Hunter and Ed Dowd, concerning the economy, link here.

After watching the interview, judge for yourself whether or not we have recovery higher first, or we head lower, first.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279