Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.
The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.
It’s all there:
Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.
Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.
The list goes on.
With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.
Robinhood HOOD, Daily
It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.
Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.
Wyckoff said a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’
Well, there it is.
Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?
Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.
Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:
September 3rd, 1929
That is, maybe, until now.
Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.
Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.
As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.
On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.
Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.
Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).
Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).
Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily
If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.
The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.
The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.
DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.
Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Weekend Wait
Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.
Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.
As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.
If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.
One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.
What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂
With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.
We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.
Strategy, Tactics, Focus
The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.
Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).
The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.
Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.
Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:
“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.
Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.
‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.
As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.
The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.
One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).
Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily
The wedge is obvious.
Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:
Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).
If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here
There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.
Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?
As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):
‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’
Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.
In Style
Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.
For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.
For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).
By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.
One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.
At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).
Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
