Category Archives: DRV-22-06

Biotech … Bear Flag, Break ?

December 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-06, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-14, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

The Character Has Changed

It’s been more than frustrating attempting to short biotech.

So far this year there’ve been thirteen attempts; some successful, but most were not.

None of the attempts have captured the ‘big move’ that’s overdue for this market.

The last post essentially gave up on biotech, but it seems like the potential just won’t go away.

This time, over the past two days, the character of price action has changed.

Re-capping briefly, biotech SPBIO, has been in a bear flag for over two months.

During that time, it’s been oscillating and coiling; looking for a breakout to the downside.

As of this post, there’s no breakout yet but we’re heading to the bottom of the flag, with a change of character.

SPBIO, Weekly

It’s important to note, the pattern below, is unique.

The sector data goes way back to April of 2009. During its trading history SPBIO, has never posted a bear flag with a two-plus month duration.

An expanded version of the chart is below:

Now, comes the interesting part.

Going to the hourly, we have a trend line and a breakdown of intermediate support in the SPBIO 6,390-area.

This is the change of character.

SPBIO, Hourly

Note that we’re deep within the bear flag and at the right edge of price action.

We’ve got the trendline as shown.

Price action during yesterday’s session, contacted that line six consecutive times.

As of this post (12:50 p.m., EST), price continues lower.

Summary

So, is this ‘the big one’?

The correct answer is that it’s unknown.

What we do know however, just by looking at what the market is saying about itself; there’s been a change, at least in the past two days.

Price action’s breaking through support levels and heading for the bear flag lows in the vicinity of SPBIO 6,125.

A reasonable expectation is for some kind of a bounce if or when it hits this area.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

DRV-22-06: Closed***

Gain + 5.61%

Re-opened biotech SPBIO Short (not advice, not a recommendation)

LABD-22-14***

Entry@ 18.905*** Stop @ 18.39***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Set-Up … Goldman, ‘Gives Up’

December 4, 2022 By in Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-06, Goldman, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, ZeroHedge

Right At The Pivot

That’s the way it looks at this point as we’ll see below.

The ZeroHedge article in question, is linked here.

You can see, it starts off (before being grey-ed out) with referencing the Non-Farm Payrolls report; a report, that another article calls ‘rigged’. So, there’s that.

With each passing day, it’s ever more apparent, price action itself, is telling us the most probable market direction.

Just to prove the point, Blackstone’s sending out a ‘talking points‘ memo to keep clients calm and help ‘guide the conversation’ … i.e., ‘thought shaping’.

Thoughts ‘shaped’ or take action.

For this update, we’re taking action; looking at what the real estate market is telling us.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Let’s go back to the IYR, update from late October.

It showed the most probable direction; a move higher into a test, giving both the location, and the date.

Fast forward, to now:

We’re right at 38.2%, retrace and on time with Fibonacci Week-8, from the lows.

The daily chart shows a possible up-thrust (reversal) and test … the very same day that Goldman ‘gives-up’.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Not shown on the daily; from the lows, October 13th, to the (print) high, December 1st, is a Fibonacci 34 (+1) Days.

Volume increased on the reversal bar December 1st, and then contracted on the upward test the next day … pointing probabilities to the downside.

Printing a new daily low at the next session, will help confirm the reversal.

Summary

Let’s see what happens next.

The Goldman report may be contrary indicator; telling us the ‘professionals’ are throwing in the towel, changing their approach right at a potential top.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-13: Closed

It’s become apparent from this article; the truth, that was counted on as a tail-wind (for a short position) is not going to come out anytime soon.

Those that know, already know.

Moving on to other markets (below) that will be affected by the consequences of biotech.

DRV-22-06:

Short real estate IYR, via DRV (not advice, not recommendation)

Entry @ 48.39***: Soft Stop @ 47.53***, Hard Stop @ 45.11***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279