Category Archives: KMX

CarMax Breakdown

March 17, 2025 By in KMX

Coming Back To Test

After two-and-a-half years, CarMax, finally breaks down out of its wedge.

Now, it looks like it’s coming back up to test resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see, buried within the price action of that breakdown, is a Fibonacci time correlation.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Two and a half years coiling in a wedge, then a breakdown, suggests whatever’s coming next may be a sustained move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tests can pass or fail. In the markets, anything can happen.

The up-thrust spike was covered here and (the potential) ahead of time, here and here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CarMax Question

December 19, 2024 By in Biotech, Car Questions Answered, Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Russell 2000 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Something’s Not Right

If the future’s so bright for CarMax, with them beating estimates for earnings and revenue, link here, why did it sell-off immediately after the open?

Trading, (as of 12:20 p.m., EST) currently at 85.15, below well-established resistance.

As we’ve seen by now, relying on financial numbers, any numbers, is akin to a ‘snipe hunt’ (remember those?).

The prior update on KMX, said this:

“Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).”

Adding to that, we had ‘boots on the ground’, like this.

Now, based on price action, we have the potential ‘false breakout’, exactly as was forecast, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

CarMax KMX, Weekly

The breakout appears to be failing or has failed already (not advice, not a recommendation).

With other markets in full-blown melt-down like biotech, real estate, interest rates and the Russell, it’s possible CarMax adds one more economic reality to the mix no matter what the ‘numbers’ say (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze ‘Exhaustion’

December 8, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Anybody Left, To Cover?

Has the market extracted just about all it can from the shorts?

Is the ‘consumer’ giving it the ‘last hurrah?

Are autos, real estate, about to implode?

When, will the plug be pulled?

The problem is, in the markets, when the plug (really) is pulled, it’s too late to get into a low-risk short position.

That work needs to be done ahead of time.

All of which, brings us to CarMax.

Company earnings are coming up in nine trading days, before the open.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).

If or when that happens, it’s what happens next, that will tell us if there’s an opportunity to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Nears Breakout

December 3, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

A False Breakout?

A data-point of one, may not be significant unless that ‘data-point’, is repeated over and over.

That brings us to this link.

Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?

To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.

Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.

Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?

With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.”

“What do you see?”

The wedge is obvious.

Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.

That’s over two-years of potential distribution.

From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings Release

Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax in The Lane

October 9, 2024 By in Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Wyckoff

‘Stay in Your Lane’

As interest rates rachet higher, the squeeze is being put on operations that are rate dependent; real estate and auto loans to name just two (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow’s price action in CarMax, is likely to confirm the trend (shown below) or negate.

Note: We could also have a trading channel.

CarMax KMX, Daily

If KMX, is in the channel, we’re at the far-right end of the ‘supply side’.

It’s important to note, price action is also (just) below well-established support at the 73.50-area.

From a technical standpoint, that puts KMX, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

The expectation is for the spring set-up to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … Edge of The Wedge

October 7, 2024 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, IYR, KMX, Real Estate, TLT

It’s A Long Way Down

Carmax is on the edge.

As we’ll see below, its poised to break lower out of a wedge that’s been forming over the past year (not advice, not a recommendation).

Auto loans along with real estate are tied to bond yields; bond proxy TLT, was down again today with rates going higher.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Bonds TLT, are currently at support levels so an upside retrace (rates lower) is possible.

If that happens, the important part to watch is how KMX, responds (if it does at all).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279