With silver bars being flown to the London Metal Exchange (here) and old-timers saying they’ve ‘never seen anything like it’, it’s possible, just possible, we’ve reached euphoria (not advice, not a recommendation).
Well, that was until last week’s breakdown.
Has it all-of-a-sudden moved to anxiety; saying it’s just a ‘healthy’ pull-back?
Pull-back or not, the chart of ETF tracking fund SLV, shows a nascent trend-line … down.
Silver ETF, SLV, Daily
There’s also a possible channel.
We may find out as early as tomorrow night, when Sunday futures open, if the above potential(s) are in effect.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.
Well, judge for yourself.
The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.
If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.
Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.
Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.
The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.
By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.
So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.
CORN, Weekly
From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.
Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.
The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.
Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.
There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).
This market appears to be ripe for chaos.
Hitting The Mainstream
Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.
Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.
Summary
The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.
At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).
If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One hour, and fifteen minutes after this post was released, gold and the miners topped-out.
Depending on the close for today, gold futures prices may post a weekly reversal bar.
If it happens, that’s an important nuance.
The prior reversal from all-time highs … back in early August of 2020, did not happen on weekly reversal bar or even a daily bar.
What does that mean or what could it mean?
Unlike last time where gold (GLD), hovered around its all-time highs for a couple of weeks, this time, it looks like it can’t even do that.
We’re at the danger point.
For the gold tracking fund GLD, the price to watch is Monday’s open at 184.45. Closing below that level, indicates trouble for the bulls.
Gold (GLD), Daily Chart
Twelve months of daily price action shows the build-up, to the blow-off.
Below, we have a ‘measured move’ target completed.
Then, we have a volume climax.
Changing of hands from strong to weak.
Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.
Contrary View
This analysis isn’t contrary just to be contrary.
We’re looking for market truth. Meaning, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’
Once that truth is found or at least probabilities identified, then it’s incorporated into a strategic plan.
Go-Forward Strategy
At this point, it’s more than obvious, food and the food supply, is literally going to be the choke-point.
As nations world-wide, scramble to secure reliable food sources, anything can happen. They can even resort to selling-off their gold reserves en-masse, to pay for the insane commodity prices.
Don’t think that can happen?
Well, oil futures couldn’t go negative either, right? Nickel couldn’t surge to record highs on the largest single-day jump ever, right?
London Metal Exchange (LME) would never cancel trades and fudge their numbers, right?
What couldn’t happen then, is likely to happen now.
There’s a chance gold will not post a weekly reversal at the end of this session (currently, 12:53 p.m., EST). If so, it holds open the probability for an upward test or series of tests in the coming week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 