The Market Set-Up … This Week

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading A Silver Collapse: Part 3

No One Expects A Long Term Siege

This time is different.

This is not 1987, or 1998, or 2000, or 2008.

In those cases, once the market reached bottom, the recovery was sharp (’98, ’09) and if not, was steady as in ’87 and ’03 – ’04.

In each case, interest rates were high enough to allow ‘fiddling’ that would in turn, result in the desired (i.e., up) market response.

Ammo Is Spent

This time, we’re in another melt-down and there’s no ammunition left to save the market.

That all got spent in ’08.

Back then, those witnessing firsthand, efforts like TARP, could feel in their gut, ‘there won’t be a (save) next time’.

So, here we are.

Always Fighting The Last Battle

It’s been said, Generals are always fighting the last battle; that is, what happened last time.

In line with that thinking is the (YouTube) idea, once we get a ‘collapse’, it will be time to rush in and scoop up ‘assets’ at fire sale prices.

That idea would have worked quite well in ’08 – ’09, which was last time.

On The Brink

Last time, there was no threat of nuclear war.

There was no infrastructure collapse or crop failures and looming world-wide famine (just to name a few).

There was no ‘elephant’ either.

This article, just out, has California front running the elephant with ‘composting’ signed into law a few days ago.

Silver, The Collapse of Demand

It’s not the metal itself that’s the problem. Having some is always a good idea.

It’s the idea of trusting in these ‘things‘ to be one’s savior.

There are larger forces at work that will likely overshadow owning something you can’t eat.

Once again, this just out: World’s largest produce market (Paris) goes up in flames.

At some point, there will be a collective world-wide realization … it’s the food supply.

When that happens, the expectation is, all ‘assets’ will be heavily sold off, including precious metals.

Silver (SLV), Monthly Close

The monthly chart shows the line to watch; the downtrend that started in late March of this year.

If SLV maintains its current rate of decline, it will be April of next year before we get to the support level shown below.

Pushing (and closing) below well-established multi-year support (orange line), is no easy task.

We would likely need to have some sort of catalyst to help price action get to those levels.

Once below support (‘Target Area’), SLV would then be in Wyckoff spring position.

Summary

As always, anything can happen; precious metals could rally starting at the futures open in a couple hours.

Price action itself, is the final arbiter.

Most ‘investors’ are not prepared for a long-sustained siege-grinding rachet lower, possibly to single digits.

If that happens, then will be the time to assess the potential for a significant long-term rally.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading A Silver Collapse

No One Expects The ‘Spanish Inquisition

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition like no one expects a collapse in silver.

From a contrarian standpoint, just because it’s not expected does not in itself, mean it’s going to happen.

However, this site’s been building a strategic premise for years, food supplies come first then precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Here are links that span over two-years; successively building on the case, we’re (potentially) in a ‘Genesis 41‘ situation first more than a Wimar Republic event.

Corn Flattened

“Ten percent of the U.S corn crop was instantly wiped out last week during what’s described as an inland hurricane.”

‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

“As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder”.

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.”

Corn Train Wreck, Continues

“The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.”

… And This, Just Out

As if to drive that last bullet item home, we have:

Turkey Shortage This Fall? | “Bird Flu”

The ‘Right Side’ of The Trade

Being on the right side of the trade means by definition (nearly) everyone else, is on the wrong side.

The last report said that both silver and gold are at The Danger Point®; The location where risk is least for positioning either long or short (not advice not a recommendation).

Based on prior analysis, the expectation is for a continued decline in the precious metals.

Silver Trading ‘Vehicles’

There are many ways to work the silver market.

Several trading vehicles are silver futures (mini futures), silver ETFs, options on ETFs, leveraged bull and bear ETFs and lastly, the physical metal itself.

As of this date (9/18/22), quotes for a typical bag of ‘junk silver’ are below:

SD Bullion

$100 Face Value Bag: $2,006.44

Apmex

$100 Face Value Bag: $2,064.92

Kitco

$100 Face Value Bag: “Out of stock”

This is not an endorsement. The purpose here is to have ‘place-holder’ quote(s) going forward.

Summary

The post is already lengthy.

Next up on the ‘Silver Collapse’, we’ll discuss the other trading vehicles; futures, options, ETFs and leveraged ETFs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Recession First … Depression Next

The Last Place To Be … Real Estate

The most illiquid of all ‘assets’: Real Estate

Two quarters of negative GDP (even with cooked books) equals recession.

Next up, full-blown depression.

Some would argue (like J.B. and Dan) that we’re already in a depression … we skipped the recession part altogether.

Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.

Anyone who thinks the Fed’s going to ‘pivot’ because the numbers are weak, does not understand (or won’t admit to) the real purpose of the entity; but I digress.

The Strategy

Way back in December of 2020, this post was released which discussed ‘Genesis 41’, specifically.

It was an intuitive assessment; we’re in a phase where corn and grain (i.e., the food supply) are potentially more important than ‘stacking‘ silver or gold.

Over the ensuing year and a half, how correct, that has proven to be.

Then, nine-months ago, was this post, presenting the ‘elephant’; a massive population decline whose repercussions would last the lifetimes of anyone reading.

Now, we have this. A report that confirms the elephant.

It’s all starting to hit the mainstream, although the language is still being couched to not cause undue panic. Good luck with that.

So, what’s next?

The Danger Point: Real Estate

While mainstream press and money managers alike struggle to figure out the obvious, we have price action itself telling us the next likely direction of the market.

During an economic downturn there are many places not to be such as semiconductors, airlines and other low margin businesses, restaurants and so on.

However, the most illiquid of all, is real estate. It does not matter how bad one wants to sell, if there is no buyer, there is no sale.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

Last week, real estate IYR, closed right at the Fibonacci 23.6% retrace as shown.

Getting closer in on the daily, it’s marked up to show the risk from a shorting perspective (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily Chart

In this case, the risk on a short position is defined as the distance from last Friday’s high (IYR: 93.96) to that same week’s high of IYR: 95.0

Let’s add, Friday’s action saw IYR, retrace a Fibonacci 76.4% (the most available) of the entire move for the week.

The Summary

Amazon (AMZN), ProLogis (PLD), and Real Estate IYR, are joined at the hip.

Now the economy’s imploding, massive warehouse space is not needed.

Ditto that for employees as well.

ProLogis is already down – 31.2%, from its all-time highs set just this past April.

We’ve already shown PLD, has a nasty habit of going straight down during a market route.

Last time, PLD, crashed over – 84%, in just two months.

It’s likely to be worse, this time around.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Downside Reversal

Wait … What?

A major gold (miner) reversal?

Is that possible?

The last update on the subject highlighted a multi-decade Fibonacci time correlation.

Going all the way back to the 2001 lows for gold, there’s a correlation of 21-years, 89-weeks and 55-days as it relates to the Junior Mining Index, GDXJ.

This past Monday, 55-Days from the January 28th, low, GDXJ, posted a reversal.

The chart below, is an updated version of the one presented on Thursday, the 14th.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The bearish MACD has completed with a momentum tick to the downside. Price action reversed exactly at Fibonacci 55-Days.

Getting closer-in, the chart below shows we’re at minor support.

It’s early in today’s session about an hour after the open.

Price action’s already pushing down on the support level, posting a new daily low.

If GDXJ continues lower and decisively penetrates support, the expectation is for some kind of upward test in the next session(s).

For the Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, we’re at the danger point.

Obvious stop levels for a short position would be yesterday’s high or Monday’s high (not advice not a recommendation).

Summary

With so many convinced gold and the miners must move higher as a result of ‘inflation’, a significant, sustained reversal would be completely unexpected.

Of course, what’s not being discussed (except in alternate media) is the intentional destruction of the food supply and the supply chain.

That’s at least a significant contributor to the rising prices.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn Train Wreck, Continues

One Way Or Another …

The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.

The latest in this ‘planned’ series of events, can be found here and here.

More information on the first link, is here. The initial paragraph says it all.

That second link calls the news a ‘Black Swan’ event.

Really?

It’s been known for years and reported by those who are brave (moving forward despite ridicule, threats, bank account closures), and who had insight, times like these were coming.

As a result, (i.e., since the Derecho) the commodities, specifically corn, have risen dramatically.

Teucrium tracking fund, CORN, Weekly

Looking and the chart, several items of note.

First: Volume picked up markedly in the fund, before the Derecho of 2020. Almost like someone knew something was about to happen … which it did.

Wyckoff said it best a century ago … those in the know, will have their actions show up on the tape.

Second: We’re currently in Fibonacci Month 21, since the Derecho. Does that mean we’ll have another market event?

Let’s see how the fertilizer news affects the futures market at the next open.

However, more specifically as posted in this update, we’re looking for some type of ‘administration’ announcement that temporally crashes the price of corn.

Third: Getting back to the chart of CORN, the right side is showing signs of potential distribution.

We’ve had the largest weekly volume, ever, during the week of March 4th.

After that, volume has remained elevated … a possible changing of hands and distribution.

Summary

Markets like to test wide high-volume print areas. There’s always a potential for that type of test in any market.

For CORN above, the high-volume area is around 23.00 – 23.50; an approximate drop of -21%, from current levels.

If we get some type of ‘export restriction’ announcement, a (temporary) 20-plus percent drop in CORN, is not unreasonable.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

‘Nothing New Under The Sun’

Remember the ‘Silver Short-Squeeze‘?

How the little guy was finally going to ‘put it to the man’; forcing the SLV, ETF, to admit they don’t have enough physical silver to cover?

How did that work out?

Same as it always has … it was a non-event.

Now, we have a supposed paradigm shift the ‘world’ has yet to fully process.

Paradigm, Not

The ‘paradigm’ link above, promulgates the intended or mistaken notion, there are two sides to world events.

Sorry Charlie, operations at world government level(s) are working in how shall we say, ‘lockstep’?

Nothing is a surprise.

So it is with gold. At least it is at this juncture while always keeping in mind, anything can happen.

Gold, GLD, Weekly Close

The message of the weekly close, is straightforward.

We’re at the danger point. The location where it won’t take much to move price in either direction.

If we really are in a ‘new paradigm’, by definition, gold (GLD) must move to new highs.

If other governments world-wide are shifting to gold-backed currencies, by definition, demand will increase and move prices higher.

Higher by not just a one-day blip of 10 – 20 points or even a hundred … but thousands.

It could happen.

In the longer time frame, that may indeed be the case. However, at this point, we have something else afoot.

The Famine, Cometh

Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.

Here are just a few recent links concerning the food supply; here, here, here and here.

That last one … what a great way to cover the outcome of this link.

It’s a slow-motion train-wreck that’s obvious to anyone that can see.

Summary

Just like there was no ‘new economy’ during the Dot-Com bubble, there’s no ‘new paradigm’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The focus remains on what the price action, the market, is saying about itself.

At this juncture, GLD, is at the danger point.

The presence of huge volume during the week of March 11th, suggests a changing of hands from strong to weak.

That in turn, points probability to weak upside (if any) and more likely sideways, or down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Corn Take A Hit ?

Oil First, Then Corn?

The ‘administration’, if you can call it that, is messing around in the food and financial markets as planned.

Well, almost.

Oil seems to be the focus at this point; virtue signaling using the SPR as the candidate du jour.

Could corn be the next target for ‘help’ such as halting all (or enough) exports to tank the price?

Remember the objective here, is to destroy production.

Anyone with two spike proteins rubbing together, should be able to see that plan (time stamp 5:35) hiding in plain sight.

We’re in full propaganda mode; hypnotizing the masses to think someone thousands of miles away is the bad guy.

Why not use that ruse to toy with the corn market as is being done with oil.

‘It’ll never happen’ … right, just like oil futures could never go negative.

If it does happen or something similar, that’s the opportunity.

CORN, Weekly Chart

The last update had the potential for a retrace and spring set-up, at the 17- 18, area on the chart.

Corn has moved higher with no major price hit, yet.

As said, it might never happen.

If it does, and soon, that support area (at this juncture) is near a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace as shown below.

Looking at the chart, it’s also clear, CORN is at significant, long-term, resistance.

Two Ways To Trade

One is shown above, via CORN. The other is the futures market itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

CORN tracking fund provides ‘exposure’ as their documentation says. However, it does not provide ‘leverage’.

That’s what the futures market does.

Summary

If going the futures route, downside risk needs to be removed as much as possible.

One way for that to happen is an ‘announcement’, similar to the Carter grain embargo, likely to cause a huge (temporary) price collapse.

Until then … we wait.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Reversal … Wait, What ?

Um, … Weren’t We Going To The Moon ?

One hour, and fifteen minutes after this post was released, gold and the miners topped-out.

Depending on the close for today, gold futures prices may post a weekly reversal bar.

If it happens, that’s an important nuance.

The prior reversal from all-time highs … back in early August of 2020, did not happen on weekly reversal bar or even a daily bar.

What does that mean or what could it mean?

Unlike last time where gold (GLD), hovered around its all-time highs for a couple of weeks, this time, it looks like it can’t even do that.

We’re at the danger point.

For the gold tracking fund GLD, the price to watch is Monday’s open at 184.45. Closing below that level, indicates trouble for the bulls.

Gold (GLD), Daily Chart

Twelve months of daily price action shows the build-up, to the blow-off.

Below, we have a ‘measured move’ target completed.

Then, we have a volume climax.

Changing of hands from strong to weak.

Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.

Contrary View

This analysis isn’t contrary just to be contrary.

We’re looking for market truth. Meaning, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Once that truth is found or at least probabilities identified, then it’s incorporated into a strategic plan.

Go-Forward Strategy

At this point, it’s more than obvious, food and the food supply, is literally going to be the choke-point.

As nations world-wide, scramble to secure reliable food sources, anything can happen. They can even resort to selling-off their gold reserves en-masse, to pay for the insane commodity prices.

Don’t think that can happen?

Well, oil futures couldn’t go negative either, right? Nickel couldn’t surge to record highs on the largest single-day jump ever, right?

London Metal Exchange (LME) would never cancel trades and fudge their numbers, right?

What couldn’t happen then, is likely to happen now.

There’s a chance gold will not post a weekly reversal at the end of this session (currently, 12:53 p.m., EST). If so, it holds open the probability for an upward test or series of tests in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279