The Tea Leaves of CORN

Wyckoff … ‘Voodoo Science’

That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.

Well, judge for yourself.

The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.

If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.

Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.

Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.

The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.

By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.

So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.

CORN, Weekly

From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.

Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.

The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.

Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.

There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).

This market appears to be ripe for chaos.

Hitting The Mainstream

Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.

Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.

Summary

The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.

At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn Train Wreck, Continues

One Way Or Another …

The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.

The latest in this ‘planned’ series of events, can be found here and here.

More information on the first link, is here. The initial paragraph says it all.

That second link calls the news a ‘Black Swan’ event.

Really?

It’s been known for years and reported by those who are brave (moving forward despite ridicule, threats, bank account closures), and who had insight, times like these were coming.

As a result, (i.e., since the Derecho) the commodities, specifically corn, have risen dramatically.

Teucrium tracking fund, CORN, Weekly

Looking and the chart, several items of note.

First: Volume picked up markedly in the fund, before the Derecho of 2020. Almost like someone knew something was about to happen … which it did.

Wyckoff said it best a century ago … those in the know, will have their actions show up on the tape.

Second: We’re currently in Fibonacci Month 21, since the Derecho. Does that mean we’ll have another market event?

Let’s see how the fertilizer news affects the futures market at the next open.

However, more specifically as posted in this update, we’re looking for some type of ‘administration’ announcement that temporally crashes the price of corn.

Third: Getting back to the chart of CORN, the right side is showing signs of potential distribution.

We’ve had the largest weekly volume, ever, during the week of March 4th.

After that, volume has remained elevated … a possible changing of hands and distribution.

Summary

Markets like to test wide high-volume print areas. There’s always a potential for that type of test in any market.

For CORN above, the high-volume area is around 23.00 – 23.50; an approximate drop of -21%, from current levels.

If we get some type of ‘export restriction’ announcement, a (temporary) 20-plus percent drop in CORN, is not unreasonable.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

‘Nothing New Under The Sun’

Remember the ‘Silver Short-Squeeze‘?

How the little guy was finally going to ‘put it to the man’; forcing the SLV, ETF, to admit they don’t have enough physical silver to cover?

How did that work out?

Same as it always has … it was a non-event.

Now, we have a supposed paradigm shift the ‘world’ has yet to fully process.

Paradigm, Not

The ‘paradigm’ link above, promulgates the intended or mistaken notion, there are two sides to world events.

Sorry Charlie, operations at world government level(s) are working in how shall we say, ‘lockstep’?

Nothing is a surprise.

So it is with gold. At least it is at this juncture while always keeping in mind, anything can happen.

Gold, GLD, Weekly Close

The message of the weekly close, is straightforward.

We’re at the danger point. The location where it won’t take much to move price in either direction.

If we really are in a ‘new paradigm’, by definition, gold (GLD) must move to new highs.

If other governments world-wide are shifting to gold-backed currencies, by definition, demand will increase and move prices higher.

Higher by not just a one-day blip of 10 – 20 points or even a hundred … but thousands.

It could happen.

In the longer time frame, that may indeed be the case. However, at this point, we have something else afoot.

The Famine, Cometh

Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.

Here are just a few recent links concerning the food supply; here, here, here and here.

That last one … what a great way to cover the outcome of this link.

It’s a slow-motion train-wreck that’s obvious to anyone that can see.

Summary

Just like there was no ‘new economy’ during the Dot-Com bubble, there’s no ‘new paradigm’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The focus remains on what the price action, the market, is saying about itself.

At this juncture, GLD, is at the danger point.

The presence of huge volume during the week of March 11th, suggests a changing of hands from strong to weak.

That in turn, points probability to weak upside (if any) and more likely sideways, or down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Corn Take A Hit ?

Oil First, Then Corn?

The ‘administration’, if you can call it that, is messing around in the food and financial markets as planned.

Well, almost.

Oil seems to be the focus at this point; virtue signaling using the SPR as the candidate du jour.

Could corn be the next target for ‘help’ such as halting all (or enough) exports to tank the price?

Remember the objective here, is to destroy production.

Anyone with two spike proteins rubbing together, should be able to see that plan (time stamp 5:35) hiding in plain sight.

We’re in full propaganda mode; hypnotizing the masses to think someone thousands of miles away is the bad guy.

Why not use that ruse to toy with the corn market as is being done with oil.

‘It’ll never happen’ … right, just like oil futures could never go negative.

If it does happen or something similar, that’s the opportunity.

CORN, Weekly Chart

The last update had the potential for a retrace and spring set-up, at the 17- 18, area on the chart.

Corn has moved higher with no major price hit, yet.

As said, it might never happen.

If it does, and soon, that support area (at this juncture) is near a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace as shown below.

Looking at the chart, it’s also clear, CORN is at significant, long-term, resistance.

Two Ways To Trade

One is shown above, via CORN. The other is the futures market itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

CORN tracking fund provides ‘exposure’ as their documentation says. However, it does not provide ‘leverage’.

That’s what the futures market does.

Summary

If going the futures route, downside risk needs to be removed as much as possible.

One way for that to happen is an ‘announcement’, similar to the Carter grain embargo, likely to cause a huge (temporary) price collapse.

Until then … we wait.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Natural Gas First: Who’s Next ?

Is it Corn?

So, it begins.

This link to an article where lawmakers (using that term loosely) are attempting to limit the export of natural gas.

We’ve already discussed the likelihood of some type of corn or grain embargo as prices continue higher.

Now, we have a similar (limit export) event but in the energy sector.

Recall, the statement from that prior (corn) post:

“What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.”

And this, from the same post:

“Of course, if that happens, corn is likely to crash (like it did last time) if only temporarily.”

So, let’s take a look at what happened to natural gas (UNG), when our lawmaking geniuses proposed to limit exports.

Daily Chart Natural Gas, UNG:

So, when this type of announcement comes out, the market takes a major hit … just like it’s forecast to do if we get something similar in corn (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, if the overall long-term objective, is to wipe-out the food supply, wouldn’t you want some kind of dry run to make sure markets are going to respond as expected?

So, let’s try natural gas first, shall we?

Remember that with corn, it will (if it happens) be different.

Because of the elevated fertilizer prices, a forced lowering of the corn market may be all that’s needed to make sure very little-to-no corn gets planted … and Voila!

For a reminder on just what exactly we’re dealing with here, please reference this link.

Moving on to other markets, we have some housekeeping in the gold mining sector.

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

As stated in the pre-market update yesterday, the finger was on the sell trigger.

After the first hour of trade, it was obvious higher prices were in the offing.

Not willing to wait through a correction to a higher retrace level, the short position was closed-out (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below summarizes the entire round-trip. It should be somewhat self-explanatory.

A hypothetical $10,000 was used as the starting amount. Any additions to the position used margin.

The end result as shown, approximately, +21%, gain.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Four Generations’

The Average Life Of A Fiat Currency

What if the ‘imminent collapse’ of the dollar is overblown by about 50 – years?

According to this just out, on private gold-filled currency, the article states average life of a fiat currency, is four generations. It goes on to say there are exceptions like the British Pound, continuing on even after hundreds of years.

The Black Swan

In Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’, he says it’s an event that nobody expects. It has long lasting repercussions and permanent change.

However, what most if not nearly everybody ignores or leaves out, is his alternate definition. That is:

A Black Swan can also be a future event that’s widely accepted as fact, that does not happen !!!

Is that where we are with the U.S. Dollar?

Even though the dollar has not collapsed and in fact, has rallied as we’ll see below, the ‘collapse’ talk continues unabated.

It’s easy to talk about dollar collapse.

It’s what gets the clicks. No matter that an actual collapse may be years if not decades away.

As of this post, how many ‘monopoly money’ YouTube videos can be found? Seems like it’s the same number or more than, ‘gold to skyrocket higher’.

Well, so far, gold has not skyrocketed higher.

On top of that, this site’s even provided an exclusive correlation that gold’s moving inversely to corn.

See ‘Insight Note at the end of this post.

Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, it’s never been the same.

Back to the dollar.

No doubt, the dollar was whacked over the past trading week. Let’s take a look at what the UUP, price action is saying about itself.

Dollar, UUP, Weekly Chart

The unmarked chart shows the dollar oscillating, testing support for six-months at the beginning of 2021.

Then, in mid-June ’21, UUP pivoted decisively higher (gold, GLD, pushed lower) and never came back to those levels.

Of course, this past week The Usual Suspects were out talking about the dollar and ‘monopoly money’.

Since the ‘gold skyrocketing higher’ forecast failed spectacularly, along with it being the investor’s fault, we then had the ‘clueless‘ and now, it’s ‘monopoly money’.

The chart below shows last week’s bloodbath has served to bring UUP, down to an established trend-line.

It’s important to note, with all that (down) volume, the most since early 2020, UUP was not able (thus far) to break through the trend (blue line).

That leaves the dollar at or near, the danger point.

Continued, sustained selling, risks breaking the uptrend.

If the opposite takes place and UUP starts to rally, last week may have been an inflection point (to the upside).

Gold (GLD) and the dollar appear to still be inversely correlated.

Summary:

Ever since removal of the link to gold in 1971, the dollar has the potential to collapse at any moment.

However, in this case, we at least have some historical precedent that on average, fiat currencies tend to last four generations before becoming worthless.

Wyckoff sates in his writings over and again, ‘somebody always knows something’.

If there’s a collapse afoot, he tells us to look at what the market is saying about itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Insight Note:

It’s been a strange coincidence over the past year or so, ideas presented on this site make their way to certain YouTube sites either in the titles, or within their content.

The timing of this phenomenon, that within a day or two, ‘post it first here, see it on YouTube there’, has occurred more times than one would consider as just ‘coincidence’.

Admittedly, the insights (making their way to certain YouTubers) have not been exclusive … that is, until now.

Recognition of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation, first posted here, is unique to this site.

As far as is known, this correlation has not been presented on any other financial site or YouTube channel or any other medium.

It may be an important data-point and map into this site’s long-time premise; it’s the corn and the grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

For more detail, search for Genesis 41.

When ideas from others are incorporated into the analysis presented on this site, full acknowledgement of the source is cited.

As Dr. Elder said in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’:

“I have zero respect for thieves”

He’s talking about the theft of his book title: “Trading For A Living”. He goes on to say, (paraphrasing)

‘Do you really want to use market analysis or input from someone that can’t think for themselves?’

Authorization:

Therefore, this footnote is authorizing the further use of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation by others in the industry if they so choose with the following caveat:

If one of the sites monitored (or some other media) uses this exclusive insight, and does so without referencing the source, it puts this author in the unenviable (but not unfamiliar) position of calling out the thief by name … not unlike what Stew Peters is doing (to the hoax/genocide perpetrators) on his broadcasts.

This market environment’s providing a fantastic public service:

It’s separating out the hucksters, the shysters and the otherwise incompetent from those who are, or who are striving to provide a service or useful insight.

The general investing public may find out soon enough, they’re on their own. Maybe unbeknownst to them, they’ve always been on their own.

End

Corn … The Famine Set-Up

Waiting For Mr. Potato

It’s hitting the mainstream.

Famine ahead; more specifically, a crisis in corn.

This article just out from ZeroHedge, has the upcoming crop in an almost guaranteed rout before it even gets planted.

Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, corn has been thought (on this site) to be the potential catalyst for market and economic collapse.

The first time that idea was presented was on August 20th, 2020, in this post.

It’s important to note that way back, 17-months ago, it was already understood to be a ‘controlled demolition’.

Crazy conspiracy back then. Looks like a fact, now.

Which brings us to the charts.

CORN: Weekly Chart

As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart: Teucrium tracking fund CORN:

It looks like price action is about to break to the upside.

The chart below is marked with some key levels: Support and 38%, and 50% retrace:

For long-time visitors to this site, you can almost write the script for what comes next.

What can make corn drop far enough to get itself below established support and into the ‘spring set-up’ area?

Doing so, may present a medium, to long-term, trade opportunity.

Enter, The Potato

It’s probably not “if”, but “when”.

What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.

More detail on the Carter grain embargo at this link … scroll down to No. 12

Of course, if that happens, corn is likely to crash (like it did last time) if only temporarily.

More Is Less

A corn embargo means more corn for us, right?

Probably, wrong.

Remember, fertilizer prices are sky-high.

Elevated corn prices (like now) might just cover the cost for the farmers … maybe.

A corn crash in the commodities would likely mean even less corn gets planted … maybe none at all.

Enter, The ‘Bought And Paid For’

It may be that easy (as above), or get complicated because a major consumer of U.S. exported corn, is China.

Exports to China over the last year have literally gone off the scale. Add to that, China is the number two holder of U.S. Debt.

So, one can already see where this may be going.

After the initial fake panic where the politicians realize there’s a crisis (that part being real), which they themselves created, they’ll likely pontificate about halting exports for just long enough, to have farmers throw in the towel with no spring planting.

After all of that, and let’s not forget special investigative news coverage about ‘how all this happened’; blame it on climate change and then keep everything the same.

Exports continue (to China) as much as possible and the U.S. citizens starve … literally.

By the way, go to time stamp 24:04, at this link and look at the clouds in the upper right. For those awake, it’s clear; right angle, cross-hatch pattern.

Right angles are not a natural phenomenon. Whatever climate change there is, is the one being created.

When Corn Takes The Dive

If or when corn takes a hit, price action itself will define the correct trade action.

So, let’s be ready and not surprised, if we see corn in chaos.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Front Running The News

‘Out In Front, By A Year’

A pattern begins to emerge.

That is, the strategies and research presented on this site are leading actual news events by about twelve months.

Example No. 1: The Dollar Rally

The dollar rally potential (when first recognized) was presented in this post over a year ago.

Since then, about 10 – 11 months later, ZeroHedge picked it up only after it had become a full-blown reversal.

The dollar has continued to rally and is currently (after breaking support), in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

Example No. 2: The Food Supply & ‘Inflation’

One of the earliest posts discussing the intentional destruction of the food supply, is linked here.

From that update, we had:

“The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.”

Those statements looked hyperbolic at the time.

Obviously, at this point, it’s becoming common knowledge; at least for anyone that’s listening.

Example No. 3: The ‘Speck Effect’

In what may have seemed like a brutal rant, has now become fact.

This rendition of ‘The Night Before Christmas’, posted over a year ago, had no links to support the intuitive assessment of what was to come.

That post has now been updated with the facts.

Warning Note:

Obviously, not everyone injected, is a coward.

Children are rightly terrified. Let’s be realistic.

However, the idiot parents and enabling Doctors and Pharmacists are (eventually) likely, as Dr. Vernon Coleman puts it, to be arrested and tried/convicted for either murder or attempted murder.

Summary

There are other research examples like gold and the gold miners but the three above, cover the picture fairly well.

From the data presented, it’s apparent at least two things are happening simultaneously.

No. 1: Strategic Analysis

World, market, and local (within the U.S.) events are researched and analyzed for potential impact.

No. 2: Market (Wyckoff) Analysis

Those events from No.1, are then linked to market action if any. Potential opportunities are identified.

The Path Forward:

This update is a very brief description of the site’s go-forward objectives.

What’s here, is a long-term (documented) track record of situational awareness; coupled with reading price action which in turn, is used as a case for market positioning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Time Tunnel … GDX

Rendezvous With The Future?

Are gold and the miners destined to collapse?

Are the miners on some choreographed mission to take out themselves, the gold bulls, and ‘stackers’ in one fell swoop?

At the bottom (if there is a bottom) will Newmont, be the sole-survivor or will some other mining entity emerge as the next leader?

Year 2022: When It All Hits

As Bjorn Bull-Hansen has suggested in this post, we’re potentially just months (maybe weeks) away from a mass-awakening.

That is, there’s no, or very little food.

What food there is, seems to get mysteriously wiped-out by some never-before-seen weather event.

It turns out that precious metals and the grains, i.e., wheat, soybean, and corn are at this juncture, inversely correlated.

Gold & Grains: Inverse Correlation

What kind of nonsense is this?

I thought we were supposed to be in a hyper-inflation event. I mean, the financial press is aghast about it. The YouTuber’s have jumped on and provided their own non-thinking “me too” assessment.

How can it possibly be any different?

The official narrative has been sanctioned by the press and YouTuber’s alike. It’s a consensus!!!

Let’s put it this way, if your (or my) favorite YouTuber is not being harassed, shut down or otherwise ‘cancelled’, are they really offering any useful information?

So, what gives?

How can gold, precious metals and the miners be inversely correlated with grains and/or corn?

Well, ok. Let’s take a look.

Below is an un-marked daily chart of gold proxy, GLD.

Can you pick out the ‘Derecho of 2020?

Let’s put in a big arrow showing when that crop-destroying inland hurricane (just before harvest … how convenient) showed up:

Below is a daily chart of tracking fund CORN; showing the correlation.

The markets in corn and gold never looked back.

Now we have this report from ice age farmer, just out. Trucking shipments between U.S. and Canada could be reduced by 15% or more.

As a result, food shipments are likely to be impacted starting this month.

Sustainable, Self-Implosion

If the negative correlation between gold and the grains wasn’t enough, we also have the controlled demolition of ‘sustainability‘ being put in place as well.

Tony Heller was part of the YouTube purge a few years back. He wound up being one of the first major hitters moving to NewTube.

Sporting no fewer than five science degrees … one of them being Master of Electrical Engineering from Rice University, he has systematically dismantled the propaganda and cult of climate change.

As with our second link above (repeated here) the only climate change of note, is the one being sprayed in. 🙂

So, most if not all major corporations are implementing plans, that by definition (unless reversed) will ultimately result in their own collapse.

After all, if you’re implementing plans and actions to address something that’s not there, what are you doing about any real tangible problems in the company?

Back to the topic at hand.

Senior Miners, GDX.

As stated in the first paragraphs above, GDX seems to be on some kind of time-tunnel mission.

Yesterday, it was shown how GDX is in a huge trading channel … with Friday’s price action potentially confirming the right side.

Next up, scheduled for tomorrow are specific and repeating Fibonacci time correlations between GDX inflection points and channel widths.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279