Category Archives: NVDA

Nvidia Breakdown

February 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust

Is This It?

Is the A.I. story, over?

As Ox Talks says here, the never-ending, upward move on any kind of news, may finally be at an end (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the chart, we see after all-time highs, price action drifted sideways for months.

The deep retrace before the false breakout, gave a clue that supply was building.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Breakdown

February 25, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-07 2 Comments

Weak Retrace

Yesterday, Texas Instruments broke decisively lower.

Today, it’s attempting to retrace and test that break.

At this juncture, a weak 23.6%, is all TXN can produce (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, NVDA posts earnings today, after the bell.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s Downside Channel

December 1, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

If, The Bubble Has Burst …

The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).

With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.

However, springs can fail.

If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Euphoria to Anxiety

November 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors

Grinding Lower

It’s been a Fibonacci 21-trading days since Nvidia’s all-time high.

As of today in the pre-market, we’re down -16.5% from those highs.

Of course, anything can happen and NVDA could recover.

However, as presented in this post, if you’ve ‘sold-out’, then what’s next?

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

Lower lows, lower highs; the definition of a downtrend (not advice not a recommendation).

The downtrend can end at any time.

For that to be apparent (at this juncture), NVDA will need to close above the high of this past Monday, at 182.55.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia GPUs … ‘Sold Out’

November 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Contrary Indicator

The earnings release ‘beat’ expectations, link here.

Then, there’s this, link here. Let’s not forget this, link here.

Big sigh.

When looking at the pre-market (as of 7:45 a.m., EST), Nvidia is trading at 50% retrace, and resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Once you have ‘sold-out’, then, what’s next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … in Reverse

November 16, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unique Characteristics

Each market has its own behavior.

At significant reversals since the all-time high on July 31st, Carvana has posted a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

The last update, link here, said this:

“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”

For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.

That analysis is here and here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279