Category Archives: SOXS-24-15

Nvidia’s ‘Power-Play’ … Part II

September 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Wide Swaths of Instability

The last report on Nvidia, link here, nailed-it.

It said that demand had evaporated as seen by Force Index (thrust energy).

Nvidia went on to plunge over 15% before yesterday’s (what must have been a) short squeeze.

Coupled with that, was short trade (SOXS-24-15) in the Semiconductor Index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, pre-market action (being short) for SOXX, did not look right; that position was exited just after the open.

Net profit for SOXS-24-15, was about +23.25%.

The whole scenario shows the importance of having the price action itself dictate the trading action.

The squeeze ‘excuse’ was the CEO of Nvidia giving a speech, then going off to sign women’s breasts … I’m not making this up.

All of which brings us to the chart.

We’re keeping the same Fibonacci 8-Day timeframe as the previous update.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

There’s a lot going in with this chart.

First: Price action has become wide and unstable.

Second: The completed 8-Day, bar posted the deepest downside thrust energy ever.

Positioning

Once again, everyone has their own method and style.

With that, understanding where we could be in this market environment, i.e., the throws of reversal, another (tentative) short was opened in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on this trade (SOXS-24-16) is very tight … to be set near the (SOXS) lows of the session.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Chaos & Order

September 10, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Rule of Alternation

The SOXX reversal from the July 11th high, to the Monday morning August 5th (panic) low, was chaos.

Wide price gaps, huge intra-day percentage swings.

Then, there was a rebound to the August 22, high when the next (potential) leg down started.

Note the difference in SOXX behavior thus far; a steady decline that’s orderly.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

So far, the SOXX is continuing its next leg lower in an orderly fashion.

There’s no telling on how long this will last.

Possibly, after the Fed announcement next week, one could expect a ‘change of character’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Boom & Bust, of A.I.

September 9, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Mises Institute, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

How Low Can It Go?

Since the A.I. money’s already been made on the upside, it could be time for the bears to set the hook on the shakeout, driving the Semiconductor sector farther down.

This just out from the Mises Institute; author Justin Murray argues, A.I. is essentially an expensive hype, that’s run its course.

With that, we’re not going to belabor whether A.I., is a bubble, a scam, a grift, or not.

No, we’ll let the price action itself make the case. 🙂

It’s hard to argue with the reality of the chart

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

If the trading channel remains in effect, we can see the downside potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

The arrow shows the entry location of the current, active short: SOXS-24-15.

Since that initial entry and with nearly each price rebound, the short size has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stops Are Tight

It’s important to note, as of this post (11:38 a.m., EST), the SOXX has not (yet) made a new daily low.

In the markets anything can happen. We could always get an upside reversal.

However, from a seasonality standpoint, September is typically the worst (downside) month of the year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Downside Targets

September 6, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

The Bears Take Control

Just like the image at left, Nvidia looks like it’s ‘strapped in’, for the ride down (not advice, not a recommendation).

The upside doesn’t last forever and neither does the downside … unless of course, you go bankrupt. 🙂

With that, let’s see where Nvidia may be going.

Note: Recall, the potential for a top, was identified two weeks ahead of time, then confirmed.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

We’ll cut straight to the chase and show how price action is ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci projections (thus far).

With price action in the SOXX, confirming yesterday’s trendline ‘artistic license‘ post, at this point, it appears the downside for the sector is well underway (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Drop

September 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX 1 Comment

Hardest Part … Waiting

Back in the day, Robert Prechter Jr., said it himself (paraphrasing):

‘You can reap a windfall, just by monitoring a trendline’

Of course, the hard part is identifying the trendline … if there even is one.

Implied with that, already being in position to take advantage of that trendline.

Building The Trade

Positioning short in the SOXX (via SOXS) has been a process of iteration; from SOXS-24-12, until now, SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of those trades have been documented on this site.

Note: Enter the trade number (or, copy-paste) into the search window and then click on the sidebar to get chronology of all posts related to that trade.

With the SOXX, opening down, yet again, one has to ask; is there a trendline and if so, where is it?

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

I’m taking artistic license to draw where I perceive is the current right-side trendline.

Also note, this update is being released with about 90-minutes left in the session.

The closing price is yet unknown.

Going forward, price action itself will either confirm or negate the right side.

Positioning

As shown on the chart, the current (active) short trade, via SOXS, was opened last Friday at the ‘False Breakout’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

With price action continuing lower, it would be nice for this position to become a boring series of actions; moving the stop until the trend break and/or exit.

All the while, keep in mind, we don’t know what our ‘October Surprise’ is going to be … yet.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

September 3rd, 1929

September 3, 2024 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Holiday Turns, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Top of The Market

Market Crash, 1929

Market reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Is that where we are now?

Semiconductors (SOXX), and it’s chief cook and bottle washer, Artificial Intelligence (NVDA), may have already decided the next direction … down.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

It’s just after the open and this is where we are.

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart, we have a sell-short indicator (not advice, not a recommendation) right along with a hard stop location (as shown).

From yesterday’s update, those that watched the presentation by Robert Prechter Jr., were challenged with the idea, we’re in the largest bubble ever or at least since the 1720s South Sea Bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

In the sidebar, we can already see a short position was opened during last Friday’s session: SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Everyone has their own style and for me, I detest ‘chasing’ the market.

I’d rather make several attempts, get stopped out, then enter again, than watch the opportunity take off because I was too afraid to pull the trigger.

It’s only 20-minutes after the open and we can see the SOXX, is down hard.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Power Goes Out on Nvidia

September 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Natives’ Have Disappeared

Just like the kid frantically waving their hand in class (and never called on), Nivida price action may be doing the same.

As proposed in previous updates, we’re looking for signs that NVDA and the SOXX, are in ‘distribution’.

Is it ready, if not already, beginning a long and sustained decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going to a Fibonacci 8-Day chart, we have the following.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

Price action has hit resistance in the 125 – 130, area.

The scary part is in the Force Index (middle panel).

The prior two price action thrusts had numerous (positive) ‘8-Day’ Force Index segments after that initial thrust.

That is, until this last move up.

After the first 8-Day Force Index segment, there are no more … it’s gone!

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279