Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

‘Big Short’ Burry, Closes Fund

November 14, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-16, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Signs of A (The) Top

Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.

The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).

Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.

NVDA, CVNA & Biotech

With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)

Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.

Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.

So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?

The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.

Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.

Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Next (short) Target

November 11, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Follow The Action

Carvana’s moving higher into the next potential short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update had CVNA, testing resistance, with potential downside reversal.

It didn’t happen.

As seen from that chart, any time we’re just below support, ready for breakdown, we’re also in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

It’s the type of stuff that drives (real) scientists and engineers ’round the bend’ as the Brits would say. 🙂

Why Focus on Carvana?

Possibly the best answer, can be taken from the comments section of this update:

 “There’s such a huge gap between the performance of CarMax and Carvana. And the short interest in Carvana has dropped a lot as of late.”

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

We have the ‘big picture’, a terminating wedge spanning over two-years along with a breakdown.

Now, it’s the ‘test’ phase with one, and possibly, two.

The level highlighted (insert), is the close of November 3rd, at 332.33 (you can’t make this stuff up).

A (test) close above that level, puts CVNA in another up-thrust position, with potential for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

October 7, 2025 By in Biotech, BIS, BIS-25-01, IBB, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Where The Risk Is Least

Biotech tracking fund IBB, has posted itself into an interesting position.

Last week, it launched higher over +7% and penetrated long established resistance; this week, it has essentially stopped dead.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

If what we have is the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, it’s happening on a massive scale.

For a short position, the broker being used indicates HTB (Hard To Borrow); there are potential fees associated with selling short.

With that said, the 2X leveraged Inverse fund is BIS. However, it too has problems. It’s not liquid; typically, 14K – 20K shares a day.

Nonetheless, short established via BIS (BIS-25-01) with stop at the week’s low of 11.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Top & Test

September 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

The Big One?

If it really is the ‘big one’, we won’t know until it’s over.

What is known, the SOXX posted an all-time high yesterday.

Today, it posted a new daily low and then immediately began a retrace higher (to test).

That’s where we are now. The test has (so far) posted all the way up to a 61.8%, retrace.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

We’re in close on the action with the 30-minute chart.

Of course, while all this is going on, the major distraction (this time around) is the ‘shutdown‘.

Separately, the Dow (DIA) posted a new daily low. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready

September 23, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CDE, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Repeating Pattern

During the last multi-year, market melt-down from ’07 – ’09, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) crashed over -90%, in a relatively ‘well-behaved’ collapse.

‘Well-behaved’; straight down, sideways, then straight down again.

Looking at the current price action on a closing basis, we see the ominous (potential) pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, Daily Close

Other Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-ups are noted.

However, this time around, we may be in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The next earnings release is late October; there’s time to assess action (if/when short) before any Kabuki theater (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Psychotic’ Market

September 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Pivot Point

The first 17:43-minutes at this link, describes the market’s mental condition and that of its unwitting participants.

Even though the language used is different (contains profanity), it’s essentially the same thing echoed by Bert Dohmen at this update.

They’re both saying a ‘break’ is coming.

This time around however, when it happens, it won’t be anything like we’ve ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trades Only (so far)

Question:

When’s the best time to refine short trade skills?

Answer:

When you don’t have to. 🙂

We’re coming up on two-years of short-selling as presented on this site.

The real (sustained) breakdown has yet to happen. All the while, short expertise is being honed.

With that, let’s look at the latest (potential) short-trade candidate.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

We’ve had seven consecutive higher closes.

Was that it, or will Monday, be a Fibonacci eight?

The last time there were as many consecutive higher closes, was from 2/10, to 2/20, this year.

That time, it was eight higher closes, kicking off a -36.5%, decline in less than eight weeks.

The ‘Pattern’

As shown, we have the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

VIX Compressed … Record Debt

August 28, 2025 By in NVDA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Waiting for The Break

The question (always) is:

‘How long can this last?’

From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.

Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re just a few minutes before the open.

We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.

Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Feeling Puny

August 26, 2025 By in David Weis, Financial Sector, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-06 1 Comment

At The Edge

The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.

Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.

Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279