Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Biotech Reversal … The Big One ?

October 5, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO

Seventh Time A Charm

‘Get right and sit tight’ … Livermore

Well, it’s the ‘get right’ part that’s the challenge.

As for Biotech SPBIO, it’s no secret it’s been on again, off again, then back on again.

So, it is. Based on current price acton, yesterday was a head-fake into the 38% retrace.

This morning’s session attempted to move higher but was rejected within the first 3-minutes.

Once again, the short trade via LABD, has been re-established (not advice, not a recommendation).

We have LABD-22-07; entered at 21.88, with a stop at the session low of 20.88.

At this juncture (10:50 a.m., EST), Inverse Fund LABD, is pushing higher.

The hourly chart of SPBIO, shows the 38% retrace and reversal.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly

Expanded version.

As of this post (10:50 a.m., EST) price action has just filled the gap from yesterday’s session. Some amount of SPBIO, retrace higher (below this morning’s highs) is reasonable.

Summary

The groundwork has already been laid over the past few months and even as far back as one year, why this sector may be set for a stupendous decline.

Of course, we don’t know if ‘this is it’, until it’s all over.

For now, the LABD position is in the green with a hard stop at the session low of 20.88 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sanity, Amidst Chaos

October 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO

Biotech About To Go ‘Up-Thrust’

With about three-minutes to go before the close, the stop was hit at LABD: 20.90.

Short position LABD-22-06, is closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘timing‘ analysis was overridden by the market about mid-session; there’s obviously something at work on a longer timeframe.

We’ll look at what that might be with the 4-Hour chart of biotech SPBIO.

SPBIO, 4-Hour Candle

The chart shows price action pushing past the 38% level just before the close.

Unless there’s a major gap lower at tomorrow’s open, the stage is set for SPBIO, to push on higher to the 50%, retrace.

However, another set-up could be in the works.

We’re going back to our usual trick of taking the above chart an inverting it to show what inverse fund LABD would look like with no tracking errors.

SPBIO, 4-Hour Candle (Inverted)

Now we see what may be happening.

A decisive push below support, puts the inverted chart (i.e., LABD) in ‘spring’ position.

Conversely, SPBIO, would be in ‘up-thrust’ condition at the same time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Timing The Market

October 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

Less Time Pushing Higher

The danger of this situation can’t be over emphasized.

Not only do market levels and depth of penetration need to be watched but also the time; time spent pushing higher or lower.

Biotech SPBIO, indeed moved higher and penetrated our previously stated 6,384.50 level; here’s the important part: As of now (11:34 a.m., EST), it’s struggling to hold that level.

Looking at leveraged inverse fund LABD, on a 30-minute basis, the market itself is showing, each successive thrust lower (higher for SPBIO), spends less and less time at the new level.

Like a drowning swimmer coming up for less air each time.

The market (SPBIO) may get itself together and somehow continue higher.

However, at this point, we’ve got a hard stop; this morning’s LABD low, of 20.90 (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD: 30-minutes

Today’s close is likely to be important.

A failure to push lower for LABD, may indicate “we’re done” and now ready for a decisive reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Between Sucess … and … Failure

October 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

‘Inside Days’ For Biotech

The market will attempt to hypnotize all participants.

That’s what’s happening now.

This, just out from ZeroHedge; buying ‘puts’ at the bottom and selling out or timing-out at the highs.

Typical bear market behavior

Our chosen sector for going short, biotech (SPBIO), is not immune to hypnotic action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday was an ‘inside day’, staying within the confines of the prior day’s action.

We’re still at The Danger Point®; it can go either way.

In the pre-market (8:55 a.m., EST), biotech along with the overall market is set to open higher.

How much higher, is the key as we’ll see below.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The daily chart includes our ‘trick’ previously discussed of using LABD volume to show supply/demand forces.

As price action rose to test the top of the range, volume decreased significantly.

Commitment to the upside is weak (at this point).

The zoom version below shows more detail.

From the LABD pre-market action, the best that can be determined, we’re still within the range of Friday’s (9/30/22), bar.

As shown, the level to watch is the SPBIO high of 6,384.50.

A decisive penetration of this high indicates potential retrace to 50%, at least.

In that case, the short in LABD (LABD-22-06), will be exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Fractal Symmetry … & … Biotech

October 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO

Repeating & Infinitely Complex

Broccoli

Every market has its own characteristics; patterns that repeat.

Biotech (SPBIO) is no different.

Based on its own repeating fractal characteristics, probabilities continue to point to the downside; but first, the ‘reset’.

Out Again, In Again

Everyone has their own style, risk, and pain tolerance.

What’s presented on these posts is NOT financial advice.

It is however, how one professional is approaching, managing, and positioning in what may go down in history as the largest financial, societal, and political collapse ever.

Let’s not lose sight of that ‘macro’ condition.

It’s difficult to grasp the enormity. The ‘pundits’ are already looking for a ‘bottom‘; a bottom that in reality, is probably years if not decades away.

This past Friday, saw a complete exit of the short position LABD-22-05 & TDA-LABD-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, once SPBIO, price action showed itself to be failing its up-move and subsequently reversing to the downside, the short was re-established: LABD-22-06.

In effect, the entire short trade was ‘reset’.

At the close, LABD-22-06, was well in the green.

By the way, After The Close … was released just before 6:00 p.m. EST, yesterday. That gave anyone who wanted, a two-hour window to position in the after-hours market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the fractals.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

We’ll go straight to the marked-up weekly.

The Fibonacci retrace tool shows SPBIO, dipped down to 61.8%, before rebounding higher; a deep retrace, indicating overall upside weakness.

The zoom version below shows the detail of price action rebounding off the 61.8%, then going straight to 38.2% before backing-off.

Here’s The Fractal Part (below)

Getting closer-in on this past week’s action, we’ll use an hourly chart.

It shows the closing low on Monday, the rebound from Tuesday through Wednesday, the retrace on Thursday and the Up-Thrust on Friday.

SPBIO, Hourly

And with zoom.

Once again, during the retrace, price action went to the 61.8%, level just like it did on the weekly.

Characteristics repeating on multiple time frames.

Deep retrace typically indicates overall weakness.

Test, Fail, or Not

This coming Monday, anything can happen.

Price action can come back to the up-thrust and then reverse lower: Test.

It can come up and penetrate the up-thrust, moving decisively higher: Fail

It can gap-lower, move lower, never look back: Not.

The Danger Point®

That’s where we are now.

If price action moves decisively higher and penetrates Friday’s high, it then precipitates an exit of the LABD position.

The other two scenarios, indicate maintaining the position; adding to the size as the market allows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

September 30, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

Biotech Fails To Move Higher

Most important of all in trading, are the failed moves.

Failed moves offer the potential for low-risk entry.

What originally appeared to be a strong launch higher that may have taken SPBIO to a 50% retrace, failed at 38%.

The sector closed up for the day but far below its session high.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action closed well below the resistance area.

Zoom version below shows slight new daily high (mini-up-thrust) before retracing lower.

The technical details of what is going in will be covered over the weekend.

However, from a positioning standpoint, the short was re-established (via LABD) as it was obvious the move higher was failing (not advice, not a recommendation).

The new short position is labeled LABD-22-06, with an initial entry of LABD, 22.12.

More details to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Update

September 30, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, TDA-LABD-22-02

Short & Sweet

Markets are in a rebound (somewhat) higher which includes the biotech sector SPBIO.

All positions have been exited in anticipation of a retrace to the 50% area shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

The daily chart of SPBIO, notes the most likely location at this point for a corrective move.

The trendlines are presented on the chart to show we’re below 50-Day and 200-Day averages … indicating probabilities remain to the downside.

Note the ‘compression’ of those averages … another clue we’re in a retrace and not a complete reversal.

The blue (retrace) line has been extended … showing that’s it’s also an axis line about which SPBIO is oscillating.

Summary

On the sidelines for now … waiting for another entry opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bear Market Bounce

September 29, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02

And Then … It’s Gone

How do you know it’s a bear market?

Sharp up moves like yesterday, only last one day … if that much.

We’re talking specifically about the bond market and the BOE announcement … the effects of which have already faded.

It feels like the 2008, meltdown only 10-times larger.

Remember, there’s no money left to save it (the market) this time.

Yesterday’s update discussed the potential for biotech SPBIO, to rally … which it did.

However, when looking at the daily close chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI) below, we see that price action stopped right at the confluence of two trend-lines.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Next, we’ll look at the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

It was a stiff whack downward; then again, price action is confirming a trend … and potential channel.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The lower trendline does not look like much.

However as noted, it’s rising at approximately + 5,900%, on an annualized basis.

Summary

It’s 15-minutes before the open and LABD, is up about +3.87%, in the pre-market.

For today, the lower trendline is the one to watch.

A decisive break (and close) below this line signifies the current move is over and there’s something else at work.

Positioning

Yesterday, the LABD-22-05, position was reduced by about 8.5%, to maintain margin requirements (not advice, not a recommendation).

As has been an on-going plan for this trade, position size (in LABD) will be increased as the market allows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Decision Point: Biotech

September 28, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 1929, Bloomberg, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

To Bounce, Or Not

Final stages of the bear market?

That’s what the ‘analyst’ at this link has to say.

If you know your market history, ‘opinions’ like that were pushed out all the way down to the bottom after the crash of 1929.

As for me, I’m going with the 78-year-old money manager that was quoted saying (paraphrasing):

‘It’s the biggest bear market of my life.’

Back to the analyst above, another opinion could be (looking at price action), we’re not in the ‘final stages’ of anything … except maybe the beginning.

Before we leave the topic, IYR real estate closed at 103.84, when the ‘old-timer’ spoke. Yesterday’s close was 81.43, down -22%, from that level and down – 30.3%, from all-time highs … and counting.

The ‘final stages’ of this decline is (potentially) years, if not decades away.

Biotech Decision Point

With about twenty-minutes before the open, biotech SPBIO, is set higher with leveraged inverse (pre-market) LABD, down approximately – 1.6-pts. (-6.3%).

We’re at a decision point for the sector.

Looking at the chart of inverse LABD below, a trend (and potential trading channel) is clear.

This morning’s gap-lower open is set to test that trend.

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

If biotech remains in its downtrend that started at the August 11th, high of 7,399.86, expectations are for some kind of upside LABD, reversal within the first hour of trade.

If not, price action then opens the door for a move above established resistance at SPBIO, between 7,400 and 7,700.

As unbelievable as that would be, it could still happen.

Summary

The first hour of trade will be watched closely.

Price action itself will define if SPBIO, has fished its down move or if we’re just confirming the trend already established.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech Breakdown …

September 25, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02

Massive Short Volume, Proves Correct

Short-side volume was the key.

The August 13th, update linked here, identified unprecedented volume posting on the short side.

It’s also interesting to note in the very same report, there’s a link to ‘bears capitulate’.

If there was actually some value to the financial press, this would be it; help provide contrary indicators.

So, here we are just over a month later and biotech SPBIO, appears to be in free fall.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly Close

The prior update had this so say about positioning (not advice, not a recommendation):

“Figuratively speaking, everything’s been dropped to focus exclusively on this sector. It’s obvious, what’s going on at this juncture is unprecedented.”

From that August 13th update, the main account for my firm has increased the size of its short position (LABD-22-05), by approximately 34% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

Unprecedented short-volume, points expectations to some kind of unprecedented bad news.

When the market goes south, bad news comes out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279