Category Archives: 2007 – 2008

Simon Property Group

April 22, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Real Estate, SPG Leave a comment

The Pattern, Repeats

During the past two financial wipe-outs, Simon Property Group imploded.

From SPG’s highs in July 2016, to 2020 lows, SPG cratered -85.9%.

Before that, during the ’07 – ’09 meltdown, SPG followed suit with a swan dive of -80.4%, top-to-bottom.

Now, SPG is posting a repeating pattern.

Simon Property Group SPG, Daily

At this juncture, there are three possibilities:

Continuation lower, Upward test, then continuation lower, or Continuation higher.

Since price action looks quiet, no big fanfare of the (potential) reversal, an upward test of some type is probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Crash of ’08, and Now

April 11, 2026 By in 1987, 1998, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bubba Trading, David Lin, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, SLV Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Possibilities for The Present

Is it the same as ’08, but worse?

For old-timers who were there during the crash of ’08, and ’00, and ’98, all the way back to ’87, the pattern of ’08, was different.

During the ’08 crisis, you could see (and feel) in real time, how the burden was transferred by decree, to the public.

Along with that, was:

‘If this thing somehow manages to pull out, the next time (and there will be a next time) there’s no saving it’.

Re-Visiting, ’08

Data’s accumulating, building the case, we’re back to the ’08 playbook (not advice, not a recommendation).

2008 All Over Again- Jamie Dimon Says Defaults Are Coming, link here.

They Rebuilt the 2008 Crash Machine — And Put It In Your Retirement Account, link here.

‘I Expect Something Similar To 2008’ Warns Trader | Todd Horwitz, link here.

Memory Lane

Just a reminder of what it was like back then, this link.

Flash Crash ’10

Since we’re building a case, let’s throw in this, link here.

‘all the way down … 79s are tradinggggggg…’

Silver Then, Silver Now

So, how did silver behave during that blow-up in ’08. Did ‘everybody’ flock to safety?

The short answer is no. Silver got hammered; down nearly 60%, right along with the rest.

Only afterwards, did it launch into a bull move. All of which, brings us to today.

Silver Tracking ETF, SLV, Monthly

Looking at the chart, one can immediately understand what’s being suggested (not advice, not a recommendation).

A decline of 60% from the January 29th, high, puts SLV in the vicinity of 43 – 44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time, Was ’29

March 14, 2026 By in 1929, 2007 - 2008, Alice Cheung, GLW, GLW-26-01, GLW-26-02, GLW-26-03, GLW-26-04, GLW-26-05, GLW-26-06, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, S&P 500, SPY, USO, YouTube Black Swan Tags: , ,

Hundred-Year Extremes

Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.

It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.

In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.

However, the damage was done.

The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.

Another Extreme

Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.

Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.

Now, on to the trade du jour.

Corning GLW, Weekly

As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.

Adjusting Behavior

The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.

As said many times on this site:

“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”

Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.

Next Steps

Anything can happen.

For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Private Credit Blow-Up

March 7, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Julia La Roche

Positioning

From the Julia La Roch Show link here.

Time stamps are below:

4:00: Insurance companies buying private credit

5:15: ‘Valuation lag’

7:55: Fraud & The cockroach theory

12:00: Lehman Brothers

12:38: No promise of support from the U.S. Government

13:08: Blackrock scrambling for cash

13:55: Positioning

14:40: Financials still overvalued

19:20: Level of risk

27:20: Teapot Dome Scandal

28:50: Trump administration to end in a financial crisis

29:25: Different than 2008

30:00: Commercial bailout?

31:00: Insurance companies & annuities

35:00: Gold standard

36:30: Bank sell-off

36:57: Rate cut

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another ‘Biggest, Ever’

January 13, 2026 By in 1929, 1987, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008

Equity Risk

Adding to yesterday’s chart, here’s another one, link here.

Let’s also include this chart.

A few months ago, equity risk was zero, link here.

Today, as the chart in the second link above shows, it’s gone negative.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce

November 1, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Health Care, UNH, XLV

Crash, Retrace, Reversal

With all eyes fixated and hypnotized by the A.I. bubble, behind the scenes, other markets have retraced and reversed.

They look ready to continue the next (major) leg … down.

One of those is UnitedHealth and the Healthcare Sector XLV (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on UNH, was back during the earnings implosion.

Two months later, UNH went on to post a (slight) new low, changing the retrace projections.

As is typical for this site, we’re going to look at UNH from a strategic, longer-term perspective, the monthly chart.

UnitedHealth UNH, Monthly

During the last melt-down in ’07 – ’08, UNH lost -75.60%.

For October just ended, we can see (zoom area), UNH retraced to 38.2%, rejected it, closing lower for the month.

Before everyone decides it’s a ‘slam-dunk’ lower, for UNH, in the markets, anything can happen. Amazon’s (AMZN) overnight launch (on earnings) comes to mind.

Next up, we’ll look at the Health Care sector itself and tracking fund XLV.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66

October 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, S&P, S&P 500, WFC 2 Comments

Chaos Everywhere

While everyone’s chasing after the S&P top, maybe Wells Fargo has already given us the signal.

Back in the day (3/9/09), the S&P bottomed at, or near, 666.7

Revisionist History

It’s important to note, as time passes, finding any reporting of that low (666) is becoming increasing more difficult. Links here and here have two conflicting closes.

The ‘old-timers’ know and that’s what matters.

The Reversal

Wells Fargo posted its all-time high (86.66) ten-days ago, on September 23rd.

Today was a sight upside reversal, suggesting a (marginal) push higher.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279