Category Archives: XBI-24-01

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … One More ‘Blip’?

December 1, 2024 By in Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI-24-01 Tags: 1 Comment

Setting Up, For The Downside

The next trade (lower) could be in silver itself, or it could be in the Junior Miners, GDXJ, and/or SILJ, the sectors (ETFs) most susceptible (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last time silver had a major downswing was in early-to-late 2022; tracking fund SLV, declined about -35%, top-to-bottom.

During the same period, Junior Miners GDXJ, declined over -50%, so take your pick.

Silver SLV, closed out last week penetrating downside support and then moving (inching) back higher.

We should all know what that means. 🙂

Silver SLV, Weekly

Silver penetrates support and then retraces; Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.

Perhaps more interesting from a set-up standpoint, is what GDXJ, and SILJ, will be doing if and when that happens.

Positioning: SLV & Miners

The mining sector has been ‘out-of-favor’ since this update years ago.

Since that time and looking at the charts, the most dynamic (fastest action) trade opportunities, were to the downside.

There are no open positions in this sector at this time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning: Biotech, XBI-24-01

Separately, as stated in this update, the short trade in biotech (via XBI) was brief.

It was stopped out with a loss of 0.15-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279