Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Tops-Out … (again)

January 3, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, DXD, DXD-25-01, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

This Time … Maybe

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

All previous updates on Tesla (TSLA) have been technical, indicating some level of curiosity.

This time, is different.

Currently positioned short TSLA, early in this session via inverse fund TSLS (not advice, not a recommendation)

Telsa 1X Inverse Fund, TSLS, Daily

The ‘support’ area shown is actually resistance on the non-inverted chart of TSLA.

As of this post (12:51 p.m., EST), low for inverse fund TSLS is 8.14; if held for the day, it will be the hard stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment Warning(s)

Sentiment, Volume, Price; typical model for reversal.

In the case of Tesla, we may have all three (not advice, not a recommendation).

Position(s)

One gets the sense the beginning of this year, has the market sorting itself out.

A brief summary of trade activity for today (not advice, not a recommendation):

DXD-25-01, closed with -1.56%, loss.

TSLS-25-01, opened as detailed above

DUST-25-01, opened … depending on price action, details to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump Predicts ‘Depression’

January 1, 2025 By in Appalachia's Homestead, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Jerimiah Babe, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Tags: , ,

So, Here We Are

Looks like it’s official with a statement of the obvious, link here.

This site’s first mention of ‘depression’ likelihood, was here, over three years ago.

From that, we have this on The Great Depression:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

Of course, others have been sounding the alarm.

First mention of Jerrimiah Babe, four years ago, link here. Appalachia’s Homestead, three-years ago, link here.

Brass Tacks

So, this is where it gets real.

Starting tomorrow, January 2nd, we may see what the New Year holds.

Will we get the ‘normal’ January effect bounce or are we going to decline straight-away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Results: 2024

For the year just-ended, Three Ten Trading, LLC executed a total of 453-trades.

Every single one, except for Nat Gas, UNG were to the short side.

For the year, the S&P 500, gained approximately 25%.

The corporate account (un-audited) for the same period, posted gains well into triple-digits.

It’s important to note, this gain was achieved going short (except as noted) in an overall rising market.

What happens if or when, that market trend turns lower?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Silver, Below ‘Spot’

December 30, 2024 By in Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s go all the way back (nearly four years ago) to this post, and the following:

“Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.”

Fast forward to now and this link, time stamp: 6:35.

How close is that to the post from way back when?

Strategy, First

The About section presents the priorities of this site.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus; with three market masters, that were masters of each.

The insight, years ago, was that we’re in a situation not unlike that of Genesis 41. It’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

With updates like this just out, it’s becoming clear, food is the focus (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Update

The last update on silver (SLV) was back in early October, link here.

Silver’s down over -16%, since then.

It’s even worse for the bulls, including the Rod Stweart reference:

‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Taps The Trend

December 29, 2024 By in CVNA, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter

What Happens Next?

The last update on Carvana, link here, identified the potential for downside reversal.

That’s what we got 🙂

Now, as we’ll see in the chart below, CVNA is right at the trendline.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

We’re at the trend, but there’s a slight possibility price action will rebound (off the trendline) to the area noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s add this insight from Greg Hunter and Ed Dowd, concerning the economy, link here.

After watching the interview, judge for yourself whether or not we have recovery higher first, or we head lower, first.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279