Dollar Rally, Gold Rout
Markets Remain Inversely Correlated
First, let’s start with a review of the dollar reversal.
Back in early May, this report pointed at the possibility for a bullish set-up in the dollar.
That type of head’s up gives one time to investigate the correlations.
Correlations like, ‘is gold still inversely correlated to the dollar (and bonds)?’
Over the weeks as the set-up unfolds, confirmation or negation can be added by observing price action.
By the time we get the dollar penetrating support levels, we have gold at interim highs.
In fact on June 9th, the day the above ‘penetration’ report was posted, gold (GLD) had already reached its peak and was in a reversal.
Five days later (before the major down-move), this report was published on gold.
Therefore, at this juncture, we’re still inversely correlated.
So, what does that mean?
The updates on the dollar have proposed, since the bullish divergence (now turned rally) is on a longer, weekly time frame, the ensuing move could have the potential to carry the index UUP, to the top of the trading range shown here.
Then, what happens to gold?
If the negative correlation remains intact, gold gets whacked.
The weekly chart of GLD (above) has the index closing right at the Fibonacci 38.2%, projected level.
Wide bars tend to get tested. There could be some kind of rally in the coming week but it’s not required.
The Fibonacci projections highlighted as the orange bars, go all the way down to 161.8%. That’s equivalent to GLD at ~ 118.65, or the futures market somewhere around $1,300 – $1,350.
With the Dow 30, (DIA) penetrating and closing below the 336, support levels on Friday, we have a Dow Theory Sell Signal (not advice, not a recommendation).
The markets appear to be rolling over.
The last market reversal in February – March, of last year, had GLD dropping over – 14.5%, in two weeks.
Fast forward to now; GLD, is already down over – 15.2%, from its August 2020, highs.