Front Running The News

‘Out In Front, By A Year’

A pattern begins to emerge.

That is, the strategies and research presented on this site are leading actual news events by about twelve months.

Example No. 1: The Dollar Rally

The dollar rally potential (when first recognized) was presented in this post over a year ago.

Since then, about 10 – 11 months later, ZeroHedge picked it up only after it had become a full-blown reversal.

The dollar has continued to rally and is currently (after breaking support), in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

Example No. 2: The Food Supply & ‘Inflation’

One of the earliest posts discussing the intentional destruction of the food supply, is linked here.

From that update, we had:

“The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.”

Those statements looked hyperbolic at the time.

Obviously, at this point, it’s becoming common knowledge; at least for anyone that’s listening.

Example No. 3: The ‘Speck Effect’

In what may have seemed like a brutal rant, has now become fact.

This rendition of ‘The Night Before Christmas’, posted over a year ago, had no links to support the intuitive assessment of what was to come.

That post has now been updated with the facts.

Warning Note:

Obviously, not everyone injected, is a coward.

Children are rightly terrified. Let’s be realistic.

However, the idiot parents and enabling Doctors and Pharmacists are (eventually) likely, as Dr. Vernon Coleman puts it, to be arrested and tried/convicted for either murder or attempted murder.

Summary

There are other research examples like gold and the gold miners but the three above, cover the picture fairly well.

From the data presented, it’s apparent at least two things are happening simultaneously.

No. 1: Strategic Analysis

World, market, and local (within the U.S.) events are researched and analyzed for potential impact.

No. 2: Market (Wyckoff) Analysis

Those events from No.1, are then linked to market action if any. Potential opportunities are identified.

The Path Forward:

This update is a very brief description of the site’s go-forward objectives.

What’s here, is a long-term (documented) track record of situational awareness; coupled with reading price action which in turn, is used as a case for market positioning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Inflation … Hot or Not ?

Monetary Does Not Equal Asset

If there ever was a CPI report to completely break the ‘inflation’ narrative, this was it.

Several articles, here, here, and here, all saying essentially the same thing … skyrocketing ‘inflation’.

If that really was true, why is the 5,000-year-old hedge against inflation (gold) not responding … and even worse, heading lower?

That’s because, it’s all rigged, man !! (cue, Tommy Chong).

Well, it has always been rigged.

Both Wyckoff and Livermore talked about that ‘rigging’ way back in 1921, when Wyckoff interviewed Livermore about his trading methods. Later, in 1922, a series of articles on Livermore was published in Wyckoff’s ‘Magazine of Wall Street’ (a forerunner to Barron’s).

The point is, we’re not interested in who is doing the rigging. That’s what the press tries to find out (a waste of time). The real question is, what are those ‘rigging’ trying to accomplish?

Answer that, and you may have a potential trade set-up.

We’ve got supply chain, controlled-demolition with corresponding asset price inflation; the kicker is, gold and the dollar, say we’re in some kind of monetary deflation.

Senior Miners, GDX Confirming Trend

Price action in the gold market and the miners confirm that (deflation) assessment … for now.

Zoom-in on trend line contacts.

Summary

Based on the articles linked above, if there ever was a data-set release that would launch gold (and the miners) higher, today would be the day … right?

Both Wyckoff and Livermore did not concern themselves with what ‘should’ be happening. They were focused on what ‘is’ happening.

Gold and the miners are (and have been) moving lower.

As yesterday’s post said, we’ll remain short (not advice, not a recommendation) until the market itself says to exit.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lions & Tigers & Omicron

Oh, My !!!

You have to wonder; will this nonsense be the excuse for a market collapse?

Looks like the gold miners (GDX) are not waiting around to find out.

Yesterday’s ‘gut-check’ counter trend move, was summed up with the following quote:

Such a move, is typically what happens just before a market gets underway in earnest.”

Today, the Senior Miners, GDX, reversed and closed down a solid, – 3.05%.

However, the main topic for the day is the dollar and specifically, the UUP tacking fund.

We’re just a few days shy, where a year ago, this site identified the dollar was in position (potential does not equal guarantee) for a sustained upside reversal.

Dollar, UUP

The weekly chart of UUP shows where we are.

The magenta line is resistance and the blue line is support.

The next chart highlights the current action.

If the rally is to continue and if this market action was happening at some other (non-Omicron) time, you’d expect an amount of sideways oscillation before more upside; maybe several weeks or so.

It could happen that way … or, behind Door No. 2, we might have some kind of ‘event’ launching the dollar over the resistance area.

Farther down on the list, is downside reversal.

However, at this point, gold (GLD) and the miners, are saying it’s the lower probability choice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Inflation, Off The Chart ?

Or … Massive Supply Restriction

Use the miss-information and propaganda to your advantage.

The following items are just a partial list of recent inflation, so-called ‘news’.

$3,000 Gold Imminent

Gold & Dollar Soar, CPI Surge

Consumer Prices Soaring …

Gold & Crypto Surge

Transitory” Debate Is Over

That last one … is that like “The science is settled”?

To be fair, there is some truth in the articles. Prices are indeed rising. All types of costs are going up like food, gasoline and on.

Supply Restriction:

Here’s a strange bit of information from an unlikely source.

It turns out that copper (mining) supplies are being restricted in Minnesota. Go to time stamp 2:52, at this link and listen to the next 30-seconds.

Sure, it’s a data point of one but then again, what about all the talk of shutting down sources of oil production?

On it goes. This is supply restriction, not inflation.

It depends on what the definition of ‘inflation’ is.

Here we have one of the usual suspects parroting the now-accepted (but likely incorrect) definition of inflation. Go to time stamp 1:23.

I’m sticking with Robert Prechter Jr.’s definition of inflation and that is: Expansion of credit that causes increased spending that in turn causes demand to rise and then prices rise in turn.

Do we have expansion of credit now … or the destruction (or, soon to be) of credit? That’s called deflation.

Dollar … Still Not Dead

The dollar of course, is the wild-card.

Everybody’s expecting a collapse but darned if that’s just not happening. Actually, the opposite is taking place.

Now, all of a sudden it’s a “Contrarian Trade”. You can’t make this stuff up.

We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of this post.

It postulated there was potential for a significant, medium-to-long term reversal in the dollar.

Getting The Picture

In a way, the dollar post and subsequent ZeroHedge one-year-later recognition of the obvious, define what this site’s all about.

As stated in the ‘About’ section, not every analysis works out. To borrow a quote from David Weis, ‘Sometimes I’m 100% wrong’.

Presented here are analysis, actions, course changes, attempting to maneuver through the largest economic and population collapse in world history.

The main focus is not to increase followership … although that is happening.

As the follower numbers increase, it’s a good sign that more are becoming aware of how manipulated and controlled is the entire narrative.

One way to separate from the effect of the falsehoods, is to become proficient at reading price action. As David Weis used to say, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

Which brings us to the current juncture. Gold

Gold, At A Crossroads ?

The current assessment of gold (i.e. bearish or reversal potential) is similar to the dollar from a year ago.

Different from the dollar, are the momentum (MACD, etc.) indicators … which are currently pointing higher.

In the dollar, there was a bullish weekly MACD divergence helping us along.

Not so with gold (GLD).

What we do have, and what the linked list above provides, is a look into a type of mass hysteria.

The ‘pegging the meter‘ article that came out late Friday caused only a blip higher in GLD and GDX.

If we’re at max persistent inflation already, is there any more upside left?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Bulls & Bears, Fight It Out

… And, In This Corner …

The fight is on.

Pre-market action in miners GDX, shows a slightly higher open with inverse fund DUST below yesterday’s low.

Is the short set-up busted?

In the markets, anything can happen but we don’t know who’s really in control … yet.

Even as the dollar powers higher, gold bulls could overpower deflationary conditions pushing gold and the mining sector up as well.

To do that, they’re going to need to overcome some significant resistance obstacles.

Let’s take a look at just a couple.

Senior Miners GDX

The un-marked chart:

The mark-up:

The mark-up shows the first two layers of resistance. The blue line is the Up-thrust (potential short) condition.

The dashed black line is not so easily discernable. It was formed way back in late July and early August.

The next two charts zoom into those areas of interest; providing evidence, getting above these levels may require a sustained effort by the bulls:

Summary:

The ‘inflation’ news is already out.

Price action in today’s session may let us know if we’re in a drawn out fight lasting day to weeks; or will the bulls reach exhaustion during the session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar … Before The Open

What To Watch

Spring (Reversal) Position

Not every bullish set-up works.

However with the dollar, continuing sentiment is so negative along with bonds, the dollar has potential to do the unexpected; that is, go higher.

Yesterday, UUP pushed below support (and 23.6% retrace) levels.

In so doing, price action’s now in ‘spring’ (reversal) position.

Pre-market action shows UUP, trading higher; right at support that may now be resistance … maybe.

That’s where to watch.

‘No one expects the Spanish Inquisition’ … right?

The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.

Dollar (UUP) Analysis:

The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:

The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.

Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.

A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.

Of course, no one ‘expects’ this to happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Stage Is Set

Dollar’s Absent From The Show

To get the gold bulls in a hypnotic trance, thinking $3,000/oz. is just around the corner, the appropriate press releases need to be created.

As if on cue, reported by Jerimiah Babe, big names are coming out to say ‘hyperinflation’s’ a sure thing.

If it’s not happening now (as we speak) it’s bound to happen very soon.

In fact, just look at the prices (time stamp 1:30). Those price increases are proof.

Never mind the hundred or so ships off CA, or even the containers just happening to ‘slide off’ into the sea.

But wait, what about the fire?

No manufactured (um, sorry ‘supply chain’) crisis would be complete without a fire.

However, there’s a problem with all this hypnotizing the masses to hyperinflation.

That problem is … the dollar’s not playing along.

Dollar, UUP Analysis:

In fact, the dollar is showing significant strength.

It’s right at Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace (very shallow) and appears ready to move higher.

The weekly chart of UUP, is below and includes the Fibonacci levels.

The next chart expands the last few weeks to show contact with the 23.6%, line and what looks like a nascent move up:

If UUP manages to make a new weekly high above last week’s 25.24, level, we have confirmation it’s attempting to continue the reversal and up-trend.

That reversal started way back at the beginning of this year.

This is what was said back then when the dollar looked poised for imminent collapse.

If gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated, the dollar appears ready for an upside breakout; obviously, a breakout higher would then put down pressure on gold.

Gold (GLD) Reversal:

Five weeks ago, the potential for a significant gold (GLD) reversal was discussed at this link.

That idea was updated last Friday at this link.

Then, over the weekend we’ve discovered one other analyst coming up with their own version.

At this juncture, GLD continues to ratchet higher to the 171 – 175 target area.

That move’s happening along with the requisite press generated hysteria … helping lead the bulls to a potential last stand.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dollar Ruse

What if it’s all a lie?

It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.

What if (speculated in yesterday’s post), it’s all a lie?

It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.

The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.

Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.

Which brings us to the dollar.

Dollar Destruction: Just Another Lie

Reminder: Way back in late December of 2020, was the first bullish update on the dollar.

The next chart shows UUP, may be in a trend and just about to contact overhead resistance.

We’ll investigate further how UUP behaves if and when it gets into the resistance area.

One thing about the dollar that’s obvious from the chart, it’s not going down.

At this juncture, there’s no dollar destruction.

The dollar and gold are still inversely correlated.

That means continued downward pressure on the metals and upward pressure on the dollar.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Destruction? Not Yet

Before The Open

‘Dollar Destruction’ To Be Postponed

Hyper-Inflation Not In The Charts

Who looks at the actual chart anyway … so old-school.

However, what that school is telling us, the dollar’s built a solid base for a sustained rally.

Then we have this: Uneducated Economist gives us links in his report on why dollar demand could increase substantially.

If dollars are going up, gold is going down.

At this juncture, there’s still an inverse correlation.

Position Update:

On a separate but related note, the FDA announcement from yesterday was not taken into account with the biotech plan. An error if you will.

The level of malfeasance as detailed in this link was not thought to be possible.

The Project Stimulus account exited the short biotech trade with a small gain as shown below.

More analysis to come on a potential long-term biotech reversal set-up not unlike the dollar.

For now, we’re out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) About to ‘Free Fall’?

What A ‘Surprise’, If GDX Breaks Down Into A Collapse

Gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated.

The dollar developed a bullish set-up starting around May, of this year.

Since that time, its been in rally.

The last update on the dollar was this one, August 4th. Indeed, the dollar has continued its move higher.

Since we have negative correlation, gold and the miners have moved lower.

Each sector is now at a critical juncture:

A resistance area in the case of UUP and support (blue line) in the case of GDX.

The market has alternated (weekly GDX, above) from choppy overlapping moves, to smooth downward thrusts.

If GDX breaks substantially lower, get ready for cries of ‘manipulation’ and ‘it’s all rigged’.

Possibly more important, such a downdraft may cause an instant change in market sentiment; from ‘risk on’, to ‘risk off’.

In that case, a market’s that’s well positioned to head decisively lower, the fastest, is biotech, SPBIO.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.