Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In our example above, the commentor said their family survived in part, because they had “100kg of salt”.
That amount equates to about 220 lbs.
Converting 1oz gold for (roughly) 18-oz. salt, at today’s gold prices, is about $392,000 ‘worth’ of salt.
When they came out other side, the salt may have been gone, but they had the gold. 🙂
Now, moving on to the chart.
Gold (GLD), Weekly
Gold is at a critical juncture.
We’re either in a potential ‘throw-over’ on the wedge formation (with reversal) or about to pressure higher into all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
We see a rising (terminating) wedge, along with a decline in volume (thrust).
We’re at The Danger Point®
Gold’s price action does not need much of a push to go either way.
Then, The Dollar
Recall, from the dollar update (link here), there’s a possibility for it to decline from current levels; potentially setting up a Wyckoff spring condition.
A dollar decline would naturally provide a likely correlation for gold rising into new all-time highs.
If either one happens, there’s probably going to be panic.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we even get started, let’s take a look at the last time there was this much dollar ‘collapse’ hysteria.
The update at this link, shows the analysis of what was likely for the dollar during the previous round of hysterics.
That was over two-years ago and in itself, highlights the ‘strategic’ nature of the analysis presented on this site.
The UUP (dollar index) chart is re-printed below and shows the location of the ‘reversal’ update.
Dollar UUP, Weekly
That was then; so, let’s move on to what could happen at this point in time.
The chart below shows three potential scenarios based on current price action and location.
No. 1
The dollar rallies from here; moving on to test the highs.
No. 2
The dollar continues lower, tests or penetrates the prior lows, then rallies in a Wyckoff spring to the highs and potentially higher.
No. 3
We really do get a collapse.
The dollar breaks the support area, comes back to test the underside and then heads lower.
Hysteria In … Hysteria Out
Of the above three scenarios, which one is going to create the most media hysteria?
A better way to ask the question, which scenario would be the most profitable for those entities that ‘control’ (manipulate) this market?
If the dollar is still in an uptrend and this is just a pull-back, then Scenario No. 2, would likely be the most profitable.
Played Like A Fiddle
Remember, the general public is being played like a fiddle.
The recent and on-going mass exodus from the small banks to the larger ones right into the potential CBDC trap, is a good case in point (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, it could be as well for the dollar in Scenario No. 2
If the dollar heads lower and manages to penetrate support, there’s likely to be media pandemonium.
That would go right along with YouTube grifters losing their minds … all the while, getting those important ‘clicks’.
If it happens, that would be a fantastic, potential set-up for a short-covering rally.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
During 2022, we’ve had one short squeeze after another.
For 2023, it could be forced liquidation in the relentless squeeze for cash.
One corporate example of the squeeze is the announcement from CarMax; they’ve suspended their stock buybacks.
This ‘buy-back halt’, theme, needs to be added to the market strategy for the coming year.
We can put that on the list right along with skipped dividends, power outages, market outages, internet cyber-attack and supply chain disruptions.
A comment below, posted in yesterday’s update from Jerrimiah Babe, opines the typical consumer’s going to carry on unabated, until the very last minute.
“I don’t believe most people will stop spending until all access to credit is exhausted. Whether it be cards, after-pay, family, theft most will continue to keep up appearances. I honestly think most could be 2 months behind on their mortgage or rent and still be spending on crap. There’s no financial responsibility or discipline anymore.”
How that may translate to the mainstream is, they continue to report ‘the consumer is strong’ until instantly, overnight, they’re not.
Possible timing for that event may be late January, or mid-February (not advice, not a recommendation).
With all that in mind, the last post identified Netflix and Target, as potential candidates for significant downside opportunity.
‘Significant’, meaning a 50% to 90% decline from current levels (not advice, not a recommendation).
Target TGT, Yearly
The year is just about over so let’s start with a very long-term view.
Two things have happened over the past three-years.
Price action has met a measured move out of the wedge as shown; then, a massive downward thrust.
It’s important to note, this year’s down-thrust, dwarfs the previous one during the -64.7%, decline of ’07 – ’09.
There’s a band of support that’s at least nine-years wide, in the vicinity of 50 – 75.
We’ll discuss that in another update.
Netflix NFLX, Yearly
Technically, Netflix is worse than target. That is, it has the potential to decline farther and faster.
NFLX, has support as well but comparatively minor in the area of 50.
It does not become significant until the wedge (blue lines) in the vicinity of 5 – 10.
With Netflix’s ‘product’ being completely discretionary, it’s ultimate downside potential, from a fundamental standpoint, surpasses that of Target.
Summary
Time permitting, shorter timeframes will be presented.
However, since the primary focus of this site, is first on ‘strategy’ (think dollar rally), we’re interested in the larger timeframes.
That in turn, provides background to drill down further for any trade decisions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How is it possible to have silver stocks sold out here and here, yet silver bears have trapped the bulls.
As we’ll show below, this morning’s action in SLV, has confirmed the reversal; a Wyckoff up-thrust, pointing silver’s probability to lower levels.
For starters, let’s recap on how this (trading) game is played.
That is, the public i.e., the masses, need to be led to and fro so they are continuously on the wrong side of the trade.
That’s it.
So it is with precious metals and specifically silver.
The media came out recently, effectively telling everyone ‘Now is the time to buy gold’.
Where were these guys in 2001, when gold bottomed around $271/oz.
No, they show up at the end of the move … not the start.
Public Buys Hype, Not Facts
So the public has bought into the hype and run the silver coffers dry. Everyone excepts an immediate currency collapse and certainly anything can happen.
The original (bullish reversal) analysis is now supported by the facts; it’s been nearly two-years since that post and the dollar (UUP) is still headed higher.
So, let’s find out where silver is likely to go. For that, we go to the weekly chart.
It’s a repeating pattern found across the markets.
Price action gets itself into a spring condition by penetrating support which subsequently sets up the reversal; the up-thrust.
Next, we’ll use the Fibonacci Projection Tool, showing likely areas for downside destination.
A full 1 : 1 projection gets us right back to where we started the whole ‘short-squeeze’.
If SLV, gets back down to the 10.50 – 11.0, level, one can only imagine what type of hype will be in vogue.
However, at those levels, it’s reasonable to expect the local bullion dealer will be begging for sales … they might even offer their product at, or near, spot. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the weeks and months that followed, dollar updates proposed that because we’re looking at the longer weekly timeframe, ‘any rally is likely to go farther and last longer than anyone expects.’
So now, here we are.
ZeroHedge just acknowledged the obvious, with this report.
At the time of the original dollar analysis, it was (still is) popular to talk about the ‘imminent dollar collapse’.
That (dollar) post was released in the face of overwhelming opposition to any upside.
All of which, brings us to gold and silver.
Gold’s ‘Changing of Hands’
With the passing days and weeks, it looks like the insight of gold (GLD) changing hands (here and here) is proving correct.
It’s not a popular view and it’s sure not getting any ‘clicks’.
However, as we’ll see below, there’s potential for gold and silver to head to much lower levels if not just temporarily.
Gold (GLD), Weekly Bar
The wedge breakdown with measured move.
It’s clear, the 130 area, is an obvious support level.
The sticky part, previously discussed here, what if somehow, gold heads lower after the measured move?
We may have something that looks like this:
If that happens, think of the confusion that would result.
From an ‘oligarch’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense.
We’ll not elaborate on that in an open (unsecured) forum.
However, let’s just say, we should keep in mind, it’s the corn and grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver (SLV) projections are similar; potential targets at SLV 13 -14, then, if lower to single digits, around SLV 9.0 – 9.5
Summary
First it was, ‘The dollar’s going to collapse’, it’s ‘Imminent‘ (years ago).
Then, when that did not work out, it was the ‘Silver short-squeeze’ and we’re going to ‘Put it to the man!
Then, when that did not work out, it was ‘Gold’s going to $3,000/oz. in months, not years!’
Then, when that did not work out, it’s now ‘The Fed’s going to seize all your money.’
Ah ha! … We may have some truth but not in the way that’s obvious.
If the typical middle-class individual is maxed-out with debt, having overpaid for depreciating ‘assets’ such as cars and housing, there really isn’t much left in the banking accounts, right?
Retirement accounts … now, that’s different.
Covered many times (scroll to No. 3) on this site is just how easy it is (will be) to confiscate the IRA.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As far as is known, no other site has identified, gold (GLD) has “changed hands” with the next probable direction, as sideways or down.
That is, until now.
Sometimes, it literally takes years to find anything useful from mainstream financial media. However, you really can’t blame them; it’s not their job to reveal the truth.
By chance, every once in a while, someone makes a mistake and bits of truth, escape.
That may be where we are with the following Kitco NEWS interview, linked here.
It’s worth a half-hour to watch the entire exchange but for us, the real business starts at time stamp: 19:05.
The Overall Gold, Premise:
If the dollar moves sharply higher and the markets move lower (or crash), gold’s response may be a wash-out to $1,300/oz., or lower.
“Changing of Hands” as identified on this site, was mostly intuitive. We won’t know for sure if it was the (real) inflection point until gold resolves itself.
Now, we have another view from a separate party (above), that at least recognizes gold’s downside potential.
With that said, let’s look at gold (GLD), Quarterly
Gold (GLD), Quarterly Chart
There are only two trading days left in the quarter; it’s reasonable to think we’ll get something similar to the un-marked chart below.
The next chart shows the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) along with an attempt to move higher (the test) that was rejected; prices continued lower.
The next chart is the one no gold bull wants to see; downside projection(s).
Using a standard Fibonacci tool, we have the above projections.
If there’s a major unwind of gold positions, price could decline to the GLD, 133-area, corresponding roughly to physical gold @ $1,300/oz.
Uncharted & Unprecedented
The caveat: We’re not in any time that’s happened before (other than maybe the collapse of the Roman Empire).
It’s uncharted territory.
We should expect market events to reach never before seen extremes. That would include the potential for a severe draw-down in gold.
The World, Then
If gold gets to the $1,300/oz level, it would easily be considered a buying opportunity.
What if gold keeps going lower, moving below $1,000/oz?
The second projection, targets approximately $950/oz.
What, then?
What if the $1,300 level, was bought by those with means, using both hands … including massive margin (if it’s still available).
What happens if there’s another leg down; then margin calls?
Can’t happen one might say.
Well, oil going negative for the first time in history couldn’t happen either … until it did.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A military invasion of Ukraine, nuclear power plant (supposedly) bombed, set on fire, power outages and potential food rationing, yet gold’s still below all-time highs?
Not only that as we’ll see below, the actual price has traced out what’s so far, a counter-trend (a-b-c) move; that is, the main trend is down … not up.
I like gold as much as the next guy but we’re seeing again and again, that’s not the crux of the immediate (world-wide) plan on a go forward basis.
Dollar & Gold: Game Of ‘Chicken’
Like a game of chicken, both the dollar and gold rallying strongly together; waiting to see who’s going to reverse first.
What do you think?
With as much control as certain entities have over both the dollar and gold … who’s likely to turn lower first?
If it’s gold, then at this juncture (below), it’s in a good position for reversal.
Weekly Gold (GLD) Close
The yellow vertical lines above, are of equal length.
GLD could push slightly higher and still maintain the ‘corrective’ a-b-c, structure.
As labeled, price action fits the ‘rule of alternation‘. The structure of the ‘a’ wave is brief and sharp. The structure of the ‘c’ wave is overlapping and longer duration.
The Danger Point:
Gold (GLD) is there now.
Continued upward pressure would change the ‘reversal’ assessment, to potential breakout … much higher prices ahead.
However, as J.B., points out in this latest video (time stamp 9:25) saying, he’s never seen so much traffic on the roads … as if gasoline’s at 99-cents.
One answer could be, this is the herd:
Completely unprepared and running around to find another herd as equally unprepared.
Panic buying of precious metals because everybody else is doing it, could be the reason behind gold’s current juncture.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Gold (GLD) has pushed past prior resistance and is now hovering at the 177.00 – 177.50 level.
International tensions are the usual excuse for the metal’s move but has it really done anything out of its recent norm?
This is a good time to see what the gold market is saying about itself.
Gold (GLD) Daily Chart
We’re going to use a somewhat compressed version of GLD. The reason for that will become apparent.
Starting with the un-marked daily chart below:
First is the obvious Wyckoff up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.
Price action has pushed past resistance and is now hovering at the 177.50, area … as if unsure what to do next.
GLD can come back and test on its way higher; it can come back, test and fail into a downside reversal.
The next chart is where it gets depressing for the bulls.
Price action in GLD, shows the current rally’s distance, is no different than it’s been for at least the past year.
We’ve highlighted the most recent move in blue and then moved that same line back to prior moves of nearly the exact same distance (magenta lines).
So, gold’s not doing anything out of the norm (so far) that it hasn’t done already.
Note how the entire twelve months shows price action as choppy and over-lapping.
This type of deep retracement action is characteristic of a countertrend move … that is, gold moving higher in choppy action is actually counter to its main trend … down.
Summary
With the dollar moving higher and the continued possibility of gold/dollar inverse correlation, somebody’s likely to reverse … soon.
The dollar’s been in a year-plus long upside reversal. The weight’s on the gold bulls to prove the dollar/gold inverse correlation is disconnecting.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 