Are We Close?
While the Senior and Junior Miners GDX, GDXJ printed higher for the week ended last Friday, the silver miners SIL and SILJ did not.
SIL price action is hanging just above resistance on momentum (MACD), that’s posting a bearish divergence.
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A Tale of Two Fibonacci’s
As the tagline says, we had two Fibonacci levels posted by CAT on Friday.
The chart shows a print low on the 17th, to Friday’s high, was 38.2% retrace of the move from all-time highs.
The insert shows the close version of the same chart. On a close basis, CAT retraced 23.6%.
Caterpillar CAT, Daily
Note the action of the past two trading days were ‘inside’ the down bar posted on the 17th.
With the trend break from the prior update, then posting a retrace of two Fibonacci levels simultaneously, plus the large high-volume bar (on the 17th), suggests the upside test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
The week ended with multiple records set, link here.
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Similar to Caterpillar
Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.
The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.
Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.
CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close
Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.
It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.
Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Trend Break … Then Test
There’s more than one way to position for the A.I. and ‘datacenter’ implosion.
As Ed Dowd stated in a recent interview, (paraphrasing):
‘Once the unwind starts, it’s going to happen fast.’
With the CAT trend break, we may be there, at the ‘unwind’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Caterpillar CAT, Daily
If CAT manages to close higher for the day, it will be Fibonacci Day 5, from the all-time highs.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Penetrates Support, Spring Condition
Nat-Gas UNG dropped nearly -30% from the December 5th, 17.00 high, to yesterday’s low of 11.92.
Today was a bounce and by the close, UNG was up +4.46%
Note that yesterday’s low was a Fibonacci eight-days from the December 5th, high.
It was also below support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Natural Gas UNG, Daily
After the up-thrust high, UNG essentially went straight down without even a hint of any upside test.
It’s not often UNG, posts an eight-day decline of -30% or more. The last such streak was back in November of 2022; from 11/22, to 12/5, of that year.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Hovering, Just Above Resistance
Silver miners SIL, are at highs not seen in over a decade.
We already know, silver SLV, is at a Fibonacci projection and possible pivot, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s no stretch to say the media is screaming about silver ‘breaking its shackles’.
Oh, that’s just great.
If true, and with silver being such a thin market, then those ‘shackles’ may have kept the market organized, preventing massive, high volatility, low liquidity swings over the years.
I guess no one thought about that possibility. 🙂
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Early Session, Inside Bar
It’s been a streak of Fibonacci 13-higher closes in a row, until last Friday.
Friday was ‘outside-down’. Today, we’re trading inside that bar (so far).
At this juncture (early session) CVNA is posting slightly below the minor resistance points (the closes) shown in the chart
Carvana CVNA, Daily
The condition is very subtle and there’s been no real sign of supply … just a potential softening of demand.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Wide, High-Volume Bar
AutoZone’s down -21.48% from all-time highs with -13.78% of that, in just December, alone.
Price action posted a wide, high-volume bar on earnings, that ‘missed’.
What we’re looking for now, is a test of that wide bar; then, to see if AZO rolls over into a (sustained) decline, or if that was the end of the current down move (not advice, not a recommendation).
AutoZone AZO, Daily
At this point, there’s been no follow-through after hitting support which suggests there could be a ‘spring’ attempt.
On a weekly basis (not shown), the downthrust energy Force Index, was the second highest ever, for AZO.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?
More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.
Why does Fibonacci work?
Why does price action alternate?
Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?
The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.
If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.
Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.
Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?
With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.
Silver SLV, Daily Close
Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.
A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.
We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.
For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.
That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).
As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.
Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’
Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?
From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.
Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.
In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.
That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver SV, Daily
From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).
As always, the trendline could hold.
SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 