Amgen (AMGN) was covered in the last update as having a wedge breakout to the downside.
Price action then promptly reversed back into the wedge, giving the equity a new lease on life.
At least, that’s the way it looked at the time.
If we pull out to one time frame higher … the weekly, and look at AMGN, the reversal set-up and possible channel(s) are clear.
The terminating, rising wedge is there. However, we can see several trend-line symmetries.
Taking the solid blue trend-line (right side) and bringing it backward (dashed lines), sometimes referred to as “reverse trend-line”, there’s symmetry in the AMGN set-up.
We may be witnessing the strategic reversal of AMGN which has already developed a massive trading channel.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s a Fibonacci eight days from the low of September 4th, to the top on the 16th.
That time correlation, along with the channel hits, help to provide validity to the set-up.
Our short position in the sector has not changed appreciably. There was a slight backing off yesterday, by reducing the size about one-percent.
However, during today’s action as IBB was making intraday highs (BIS making lows), the short position was increased, via BIS.
In any event, we have a hard stop at the day’s high, IBB 134.85, which is approximately 31.46, on BIS: Not financial advice, not a recommendation.
As of this post, 7:00 p.m., EST, the S&P 500 futures are trading down about -0.50%, giving the inference that downside action will continue at the next session.
Silver futures have dropped another 4.5% – 5%. Price action’s heading straight down. Nearest chart support for the SIZ20 (December) contract is around 20.00.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Now that AMGN is breaking lower, let’s take a look at how far down it could go.
The chart shows the terminating wedge pattern. Depending on where the wedge entry is measured, slightly different projections will result.
A fairly conservative estimate is shown.
If we do not get some kind of recovery back into the wedge itself, a measured move projects to the 185-area.
A potential downside breakout was highlighted yesterday. The press as typical, appears surprised by the markets opening lower, continuing lower.
Doing what they do (fabricate a ‘reason’), AMGN’s decline seems to be a political problem … even though its been in a topping formation for years with ever slowing upward trend.
No matter, it’s all about healthcare uncertainty. Tomorrow it may be all about something else.
Wyckoff said over a century ago, the financial press was essentially useless at best and intentionally deceptive at worst.
A hundred years later, not much has changed.
Wyckoff analysis is one of the best kept secrets on Wall St. We’ve been using it to spot market opportunities since 2008. Find out more about Wyckoff analysis here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This is how it looks just before an up-side breakout. Of course we’re dealing with probabilities and the pattern could morph into something else.
However, at this juncture it looks about to move … higher.
The problem is and you may have already noticed, the chart does not look quite right. Why is price action at the bottom and volume at the top?
It’s inverted … turned up-side down.
We’re looking at Amgen (AMGN), inverted.
Inverting the chart is an old trading technique that’s used to remove analysis bias in one direction or other.
If a chart looks like a buy (or sell) no matter which way you turn it, there’s a problem … a significant trader’s bias that blinds one to the potential.
Amgen is the largest component in the biotech (IBB) sector. The coming week, may support or negate the breakout potential.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Right at the danger point, biotech’s (IBB) upward energy evaporates.
The 2-Day chart below shows a series of thrust energy units.
Going from 57-Million, all the way down to less than 1-Million (0.85-M), in six trading days.
An expandable version of the chart above (with additional technical data) is here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just before the all-time high in biotech (IBB), several screen shots of price-bar action were obtained.
Pasting it all together in an old-time flip-book format, we see the daily action of IBB over the past two months.
There’s no bonafide indicator that a top was imminent other than increased daily volume at the pivot.
That increased volume was a subtle clue more volume was not resulting in upward movement.
The next day, price action stalled and reversed.
The result is obvious but below the radar. IBB has not declined significantly enough, fast enough to draw outright attention.
This is precisely (not advice, not a recommendation) the area where Three Ten Trading established its short position.
In fact, as detailed in this update, the entire short position was exited and then re-established during this two-month long reversal.
The short position (via BIS) is now well in the green but ready to be exited at the first sign of trouble … all the while expecting further IBB downside ahead.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Keep the population continuously distracted: Wear your mask, be afraid, take the blue pill and follow orders; Sounds a lot like a certain European country in the early 1930s.
We’re in a long-term game plan(demic) of unprecedented wealth-transfer.
Part of this transfer is to keep the ‘market’ rising higher, while underneath, the foundation crumbles.
Those in the know, cash-out.
The vast majority of equities do not participate in the up-trend until the end. That end, is when the top ten, the top seven, the top five all the way to the top one, which at this point is Apple (AAPL), can’t go any higher.
In classical terms, the market ‘thins out’.
At this juncture and barring any surprise to the up-side, we see biotech (IBB) reached its all time high weeks, even months ago in late July.
There has been a steady, but halting progression lower until the past week.
If the 23.6%, retrace holds, it’s an indicator of substantial weakness in the sector.
Looking to what might be ahead, the weekly chart notations show a potential Head & Shoulders pattern in its very early stages.
A larger, more expandable version of the chart is here.
Fibonacci price projections (dashed lines) have been included to direct us to where price action may stabilize temporarily.
Those projections are based off the high-to-low and then rebound to the 23.6% retrace.
As always, anything can happen.
IBB could launch higher at the open on Monday and negate or severely damage the set-up. However, if it does not and continues lower, the H&S pattern remains in play.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 