Amgen Reversal

12:59 p.m., EST:

Expectation for sustained AMGN, reversal.

Note: The Weekly Close chart of AMGN above, is ‘inverted’. Wyckoff analysis references are inverted as well:

Up-thrust, now becomes ‘spring’.

Sign of Supply now becomes ‘Sign of Demand’, etc.

The chart has been expanded with more detail below:

We’ve had the penetration (and close) below support. Then a reversal which indicated sign of demand.

Price action then came back to the support level for a ‘test’ and then reversed again.

Now, AMGN is at the point where the set-up is complete:

Penetrate, Close, Demand, Test, Reversal.

We’re in a high probability set-up for continued AMGN, downside.

At this point, AMGN is the No. 2, market cap equity in the IBB, biotech sector; a good proxy for biotech overall.

In a separate but similar market, SPBIO, today’s action continues to follow the forecast updated in yesterday’s report.

In that market, leveraged inverse fund LABD continues to push higher and is currently up +1.40%, for the day.

No major LABD breakout (breakdown for SPBIO), yet.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Senior Miners (GDX), Testing

11:27 a.m. EST:

With price action similar to the Amgen reversal, senior mining index GDX, is testing resistance.

As if taking a cue from yesterday’s report on gold heading lower, today we have gold and the miners deciding to head higher.

All is not what it seems however.

The GDX chart above, shows we’re already in up-thrust condition. There has been a sign of supply (selling overwhelming the buying) and now we’re heading up into a test.

Going back to this report on Amgen, it’s a near exact replica of price action; except it’s (apparently) taking place quicker.

Note the bottom of the ‘Sign of Supply’ is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the high posted on April 21st.

That would naturally lend itself to expect testing action to complete on Fibonacci Day 13, which is this coming Friday.

Remember, that as soon as everyone’s got it figured out (Fibonacci time frame) it changes to something else. So, if no one is really paying attention and still in the hyper-inflation bull camp, they’ll look at this action as a bull move; missing the reversal (when or if it comes).

Tests can fail as well. GDX could push through the resistance and negate the up-thrust.

As stated many times before, the gold market’s too crowded with too many rabid bulls.

This may be a good test and reversal set-up but we’ll stick with shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the way … biotech’s doing very well on the short side today … 🙂

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen, Hit Hard

11:57 a.m. EST:

It’s mid-session; Amgen (AMGN) is down 7.6%, after a poor earnings report.

The last update on AMGN, linked here, had this to say:

AMGN peaked three days later.

The chart below shows it was a Fibonacci 34-days from the 3/4/21 low, to the 4/21/21, high.

On the fundamental side, we have this explanation for the breakdown.

Missing from the earnings report, not only is customer traffic less this past quarter, it’s going to get (if our research is accurate) a whole lot less as customers literally die-off en masse.

Moving on to biotech SPBIO and 3X inverse, LABD:

As shown in a prior update, LABD has repeating trendline characteristics.

Hourly chart of LABD, below:

We’re still very early at the right side of price action to identify a trend.

However, it’s good to know what LABD ‘likes’ and expect that behavior again.

The daily chart is updated with the Fibonacci 34-day time-frame discussed previously. We’re still within acceptable time error for a potential channel.

If LABD does not reverse significantly higher from here, that potential channel will likely be negated.

Summary:

Linked here, is an article just out on ZeroHedge. It discusses the ‘complacency’ of the market and how it’s ready for a long lasting reversal.

Buried within the report (and claiming ‘fair use’ to quote) we have this nugget:

Some feature of COVID-19 will likely be the stock market’s undoing”

Ya think?

If there’re any in the mainstream press awake, you’ll have to read between the lines to get their message.

‘Some feature’ may just be a euphemism for mass genocide.

We’ll see.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen: Fakeout-Breakout?

11:56 a.m. EST:

Amgen’s sotorasib news could be its all time high.

Immediately following that announcement, AMGN went into a 20% decline (‘sign of supply’).

In Wyckoff terms, we can look at the action from late January to now as a massive ‘up-thrust’ (false breakout).

That up-thrust is now being tested … with another breakout attempt.

If that’s the case and the test fails with price action retreating from here, then AMGN’s set-up for a significant downward reversal.

Significant in that we’re not (ever) coming back to these levels.

That statement might seem hyperbolic and it very well could be.

However, when one looks at reports like this, insiders are bailing out; leaving “retail” holding the bag as usual.

Fundamentals:

Although not directly related to AMGN, we have yet another horror show in the biotech arena.

The wheels are falling off the ‘speck’ false narrative; tragically so.

The following is taken from the comment section of the video post:

From the guy who filmed :

“Less than 5 minutes from getting God knows what injected inside them the two people to my left starting having seizures. First the gentlemen in the red car was watching in shock as the driver next to him was having a seizure. Little did he know he would have one right after him. I called the medics to help him. They have a procedure where after you get the shot you have to wait in the car for 15 min and if something goes wrong to honk your horn and someone will show up. Well these folks to my left just passed out into seizures with no warning.

You would think it’s just a matter of time before this reaches some kind of tipping point; where enough of the herd realizes all at once, the lie.

Positioning:

The last post has us breaking the rules. Was that the right thing to do?

This morning’s price action has the answer: Yes.

The Project Stimulus table has been updated to include the new (hard) stop level. With LABD currently up a good 5.50%, and looking to move higher, it’s not likely the stop will be hit.

There is one caveat: As of this post, IBB has not printed a new daily low. That leaves the (slight) possibility open for a move higher.

Several attempts have been made to short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). It looks like the current attempt is underway.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

AMGN, Gap Filled

Price action pushed past yesterday’s analysis to fill a price gap from February.

What’s next is the question.

The answer may be in the pre-market, where AMGN is down -1.25% and inverse fund LABD is up +4.7%

If biotech IBB pushes below yesterday’s low of 154.45, we’ve got tentative confirmation the reversal (which tested its highs yesterday) is going to continue.

We remain short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) with a hard stop @ 17.80

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

As Promised, Amgen

AMGN’s at a confluence of Fibonacci projections.

Yesterday’s update hinted that AMGN was in a special situation. This is a brief detail of conditions.

First, let’s understand that momentum indicators, MACD on monthly, weekly and daily, all point higher.

If we’re at the downside reversal, the inflection, we’re documenting in real time how it’s taking place.

On the chart, two Fibonacci tools are in use; a retrace tool and a projection tool.

The retrace is from the all time high posted on 1/28/21, to the most recent low on 3/4/21.

The projection tool has been placed on the recent upward action from that low and estimating where the a-b-c (corrective) waves are terminating.

The market itself determines what levels are important. This is one of the main Wyckoff tenets presented by him over a century ago.

It’s clear price action is hesitating at the confluence of a 38% retrace and 100% projection (‘a’ and ‘c’ waves equal) on the chart.

Since AMGN is the largest cap in the IBB, ETF, its behavior has an outsized effect.

A downside reversal from this point, the 38% retrace level, would indicate significant weakness for AMGN.

We also have today as Fibonacci Day 34, from the all time high.

The retrace high may have been yesterday or we may get it today … right around 2:00 p.m. EST, at the Fed announcement.

Update: As this was being written, AMGN just posted a new retrace high.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech 50% Retrace

Biotech pulls back 50% and the bulls look tired.

Update 12:23 p.m. EST, noted below in red

The 15-minute chart of inverse fund LABD shows how successive moves lower (higher for IBB) have covered less distance.

It’s very early in the session and price action at this moment is fighting it out at LABD 18.00, area.

We’ve maintained our short position (not advice, not a recommendation) but have the sense, if there’s not a reversal at this point, IBB could be working up for new all time highs.

This is the danger point.

Current LABD low for the early session is 17.91 … a good place for a stop.

LABD pushed down to 17.80, early in the session before reversing.

It has just passed 18.28, a new hourly high. AMGN to be covered later, at important inflection point (down).

Short position via LABD maintained (not advice, not a recommendation), hard stop at 17.80

With markets at record prices, Fed announcement tomorrow, no more stimulus (likely), forbearance to end, possibility of the ‘speck’ blowing wide open, one gets the sense this may be an important reversal.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen (AMGN) Breaking Lower

Amgen’s the largest cap in the biotech sector ETF, IBB.

Loss of momentum (magenta arrow) is clear.

Upside energy (weekly) MACD has been dissipating for over a year.

So, this is no transient direction change. Zooming into the daily chart shows hesitation at the trend line.

Then last Friday, a significant move away from that trend.

When there’s a trend break, typically there’ll be a test of that break.

In this case, such a test would cause price action to move higher; testing the underside of the trend.

Because there’s been so much congestion at the trend line, we may not get the upside move.

It may have already self-tested. From here, price action could just make its way down to the measured move target ~ 164 – 165.

Positioning:

We’re short this market via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) and have moved the stop to 18.17, based on yesterday’s action.

Summary:

If AMGN decides to test the trend underside, it’s likely to stop out LABD.

If price continues to decline (unabated) to target levels, we’ll probably exit at pre-identified IBB, target ~ 138 – 140 (approx: 35 – 38, LABD).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen: Head & Shoulders

Like Newmont is to GDX, so is Amgen to IBB. 

It’s the heavy hitter. If we decipher what’s going on with it, then we can trade biotech for (potential) profit.

The chart shows price action began to retrace off the lows for the week.  In doing so, it created a possible neckline.

The 38% retrace area, marked with the dashed line, also shows it’s a juncture between weekly bars; the circled area.

That’s a trading tip … watch the circle.

If price action gets to 38% and stalls, it shows weakness. 

Our interest is to look for shorting opportunities.  Specifically, via the 2X Inverse Biotech, BIS. 

For years now, except for energy (nat-gas) and commodities (corn, wheat, et al), markets are being worked from the short side.

Steven Van Metre presents an excellent case for a deflationary impulse first before there’s any inflation.

The ‘macro’ as he calls it, provides a backdrop for what’s really going on. 

For now, the action (not advice, not a recommendation) is to watch AMGN play out.  If the trading is choppy, overlapping and laboring into the 38% level, then we have our answer.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Lying In Wait

That’s exactly what’s happening with biotech (IBB) and more specifically Amgen (AMGN).

Just like with Newmont and GDX from the previous update, Amgen’s the heavy hitter for the biotech sector.

What we see on the daily chart below and expandable version here, is that AMGN’s at the danger point.

Price action penetrated well established support and then stopped dead (so far).

If that’s the case, we’re looking for price action to rebound and move toward the 242 – 244 area; a 50% retrace from current levels.

If that point is reached, depending on the behavior of price action itself, the expectation is for a long-term reversal.

There have been several trades using BIS and LABD with the overall result being about break-even to slightly down.

More important than outright profit is the trading insight (over several months) into the sector itself.  That insight can only come from active positions. 

No amount of ‘paper trading’ or external analysis will provide a visceral feel for the market.

Summary: 

We’re waiting for price action in AMGN and the overall IBB, to counter-trend upward as we head into November.

If there’s an obvious reversal at that time (not advice, not a recommendation) the risk on a short position may be at its lowest.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.