Category Archives: CVNA

‘Big Short’ Burry, Closes Fund

November 14, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-16, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Signs of A (The) Top

Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.

The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).

Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.

NVDA, CVNA & Biotech

With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)

Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.

Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.

So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?

The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.

Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.

Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … pre-market

November 12, 2025 By in CVNA, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Nearing Fibonacci Retrace

With about 15-minutes before the regular open, CVNA has moved slightly higher from yesterday and is nearing Fibonacci retrace levels.

Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.

The preferred scenario is a session close within the ‘Up-Thrust Zone’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, this link is one of the most recent, describing the precarious overall condition of the market.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Next (short) Target

November 11, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Follow The Action

Carvana’s moving higher into the next potential short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update had CVNA, testing resistance, with potential downside reversal.

It didn’t happen.

As seen from that chart, any time we’re just below support, ready for breakdown, we’re also in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

It’s the type of stuff that drives (real) scientists and engineers ’round the bend’ as the Brits would say. 🙂

Why Focus on Carvana?

Possibly the best answer, can be taken from the comments section of this update:

 “There’s such a huge gap between the performance of CarMax and Carvana. And the short interest in Carvana has dropped a lot as of late.”

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

We have the ‘big picture’, a terminating wedge spanning over two-years along with a breakdown.

Now, it’s the ‘test’ phase with one, and possibly, two.

The level highlighted (insert), is the close of November 3rd, at 332.33 (you can’t make this stuff up).

A (test) close above that level, puts CVNA in another up-thrust position, with potential for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tests the Breakdown

November 9, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-15-15, KMX, Positions 1 Comment

Did The ‘Shorts’ Give Up?

Just as Carvana appears poised for a significant move lower, short interest has actually decreased, substantially.

According to data at this link, short interest has declined over -15%, from the previous month to just 5.6% of shares outstanding.

After relentless buoyancy for years, the shorts may have given up just as CVNA, could be poised for the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, rival CarMax has completely imploded (fired the CEO); down -79.25% as of last Friday’s close.

While we’re at it, the all-time high for CVNA, was July 31st, at 413.33, just another ‘coincidence’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

As of last Friday, we’re at the axis line of support and resistance.

Volume declined when compared to the previous session, suggesting there’s not much commitment to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading Results

Meanwhile, using the volatility, Carvana is being traded to the short-side.

There’s no ‘positioning’ as yet (the desired action), but nonetheless, swings are being used for respectable profit.

The last completed trade, CVNA-25-15, went short at 308.48, last Thursday; covered the next day at 289.25, for a modest gain of 6.7%.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Edge of The Wedge’

November 6, 2025 By in CVNA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Measured Move

Carvana’s right at the edge of a (terminating) wedge that’s been years in the making.

Let’s not worry though; here’s a ‘fanciful’ report that says it’s a buying opportunity, link here.

If there’s one takeaway from using Wyckoff analysis, it’s to ‘ignore the news’, and let the market itself tell us the next likely direction.

So, let’s do that.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Well, there it is. The wedge

A measured move (not shown) puts the potential location of a wedge breakdown at approximately the 90.00 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Falls in Hole

September 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-24-14, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-07, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Trading Below Support

Carvana spent three days hovering above support.

Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.

Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.

Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.

The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.

Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.

However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.

More on that later.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 10, 2025 By in BA, CVNA, CVNA-25-09, MMM, Positions

Carvana: Test, or Breakdown

Several equites appear to be at transition points.

Boeing was covered yesterday. Similar to Boeing, is Three M.

Both appear ready to post higher into resistance at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Another potential transition is Carvana, CVNA.

The last (short) trade, CVNA-25-09, was closed on 8/7/25, with a +6.53%, profit.

At this point, shown below, we’re either going to attempt an upside test or … just go ahead and break to the downside.

The least likely probability is for extended sideways action.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279