Category Archives: CVNA

At The Crossroads … Carvana

November 27, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-17 2 Comments

Where Risk, is Least

Carvana’s at the crossroads; The Danger Point®

Yesterday’s close, is a potential (significant) pivot-point.

A break higher, and CVNA has avoided the ‘terminating wedge’ (here), follows the trendline, on to potential new highs.

A break down, and we start a possible (swift) move, to much lower levels.

For a short position, this is where the (upside) risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

In addition to the months-long terminating wedge (link above), we also have a smaller wedge.

Depending on how one draws the upper wedge line, yesterday’s action could be considered a ‘throw-over’ of the formation, typically an ending move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, In The Lane

November 17, 2025 By in CVNA

Trading Channel

With the major indices lower today, Carvana (CVNA) managed to close higher.

Price action has remained within the trading channel shown, since September 17th.

The rest of the markets look like they’re rolling over. So, it might be a stretch to expect CVNA, to close above the 332.33, level discussed here.

Not only close higher but do it tomorrow, on ‘Day 8’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … in Reverse

November 16, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unique Characteristics

Each market has its own behavior.

At significant reversals since the all-time high on July 31st, Carvana has posted a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

The last update, link here, said this:

“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”

For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.

That analysis is here and here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Big Short’ Burry, Closes Fund

November 14, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-16, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Signs of A (The) Top

Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.

The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).

Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.

NVDA, CVNA & Biotech

With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)

Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.

Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.

So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?

The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.

Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.

Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … pre-market

November 12, 2025 By in CVNA, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Nearing Fibonacci Retrace

With about 15-minutes before the regular open, CVNA has moved slightly higher from yesterday and is nearing Fibonacci retrace levels.

Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.

The preferred scenario is a session close within the ‘Up-Thrust Zone’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, this link is one of the most recent, describing the precarious overall condition of the market.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Next (short) Target

November 11, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Follow The Action

Carvana’s moving higher into the next potential short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update had CVNA, testing resistance, with potential downside reversal.

It didn’t happen.

As seen from that chart, any time we’re just below support, ready for breakdown, we’re also in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

It’s the type of stuff that drives (real) scientists and engineers ’round the bend’ as the Brits would say. 🙂

Why Focus on Carvana?

Possibly the best answer, can be taken from the comments section of this update:

 “There’s such a huge gap between the performance of CarMax and Carvana. And the short interest in Carvana has dropped a lot as of late.”

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

We have the ‘big picture’, a terminating wedge spanning over two-years along with a breakdown.

Now, it’s the ‘test’ phase with one, and possibly, two.

The level highlighted (insert), is the close of November 3rd, at 332.33 (you can’t make this stuff up).

A (test) close above that level, puts CVNA in another up-thrust position, with potential for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tests the Breakdown

November 9, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-15-15, KMX, Positions 1 Comment

Did The ‘Shorts’ Give Up?

Just as Carvana appears poised for a significant move lower, short interest has actually decreased, substantially.

According to data at this link, short interest has declined over -15%, from the previous month to just 5.6% of shares outstanding.

After relentless buoyancy for years, the shorts may have given up just as CVNA, could be poised for the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, rival CarMax has completely imploded (fired the CEO); down -79.25% as of last Friday’s close.

While we’re at it, the all-time high for CVNA, was July 31st, at 413.33, just another ‘coincidence’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

As of last Friday, we’re at the axis line of support and resistance.

Volume declined when compared to the previous session, suggesting there’s not much commitment to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading Results

Meanwhile, using the volatility, Carvana is being traded to the short-side.

There’s no ‘positioning’ as yet (the desired action), but nonetheless, swings are being used for respectable profit.

The last completed trade, CVNA-25-15, went short at 308.48, last Thursday; covered the next day at 289.25, for a modest gain of 6.7%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Edge of The Wedge’

November 6, 2025 By in CVNA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Measured Move

Carvana’s right at the edge of a (terminating) wedge that’s been years in the making.

Let’s not worry though; here’s a ‘fanciful’ report that says it’s a buying opportunity, link here.

If there’s one takeaway from using Wyckoff analysis, it’s to ‘ignore the news’, and let the market itself tell us the next likely direction.

So, let’s do that.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Well, there it is. The wedge

A measured move (not shown) puts the potential location of a wedge breakdown at approximately the 90.00 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279