Category Archives: DRV-25-01

When The Analysis is ‘Wrong’

February 8, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-25-01, DRV-25-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff Tags: ,

‘In Slow’ … ‘Out Fast’ (Dr. Elder)

The last update on ProLogis, PLD, proved to be (somewhat) incorrect.

There was no definitive assessment on direction, but from the sidebar, one could see an open short position in sector index IYR, as DRV-25-01.

That short was closed nearly immediately at the next session as PLD, ratcheted higher along with IYR.

Since we’re at ‘-04’, increment on DRV, there have been four attempts to position short with DRV-25-04, currently open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain/loss (all positions) is near break-even, at -0.38%

All of which brings us to ProLogis … again.

ProLogis, PLD, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

The last earnings release for PLD, resulted in a wide bar on heavy volume.

Nearly instantly, and from a Wyckoff standpoint, we should know what that means … or what is probable:

The wide bar, volume, are likely to be ‘tested’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next update, we’ll discuss the Up-Thrust (reversal) condition for PLD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Odds in Your Favor

January 18, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Contact Points

The last update showed the possible (downside) reversal set-up for real estate sector, IYR.

This update shows the largest cap equity in that sector (source, TC2000), ProLogis, PLD, and its current position.

ProLogis, PLD, Weekly

We’ve had essentially sideways action for over two years; trading between (approx.) 90 – 130.

In the past three months, price action has established what looks to be a downtrend and possibly a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the relatively heavy (upside) volume from last week, the green bar.

In Wyckoff terms, that volume is potential ‘effort vs. reward’, or exhaustion if PLD, continues lower from here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279