Category Archives: IBB

Corn Goes Vertical

December 31, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, IBB, Positions 13 Comments

Ever since the inland hurricane, the ‘Derecho’ of August 10th, it’s never been the same for corn.

Now, it’s going vertical.

The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.  Control the food, control the population. Simple.

It seems the ‘preppers’ tend to focus on stockpiling silver and gold.

If your’re getting ready for what’s coming, from a historical perspective, that’s not the place to start.

Going way back …. thousands of years, during the famine in Egypt of Joseph’s time, we have this:

“And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number”

“And the famine was over all the face of the Earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold unto the Egyptians: and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.”

“And all countries came unto Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Gen 41:  Vs.  49, 56, 57, KJV

They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver.  Then they paid with their livestock.  Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.

As corn is going vertical, the bond market is signaling its move as well.

Just now, today, TLT is rotating higher.

Yesterday, Steven Van Metre showed a chart (time stamp 10:00) of the speculators beginning to back off their historic short position.

They’ve figured out they’re trapped. Now, they’re trying to sneak out the door without being completely impaled on a sharp bond spike.

The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, all appear to be holding near their highs.

Biotech (IBB), as reported yesterday, is different.

Something major is brewing below the surface with the biotech deception.  Price action itself is showing it’s the place to be for the short-side.

Further info on biotech’s downside is here and here.

Positions remain unchanged (as of 3:02 p.m. EST).  Stops have been moved; not advice, not a recommendation.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Class Action

December 30, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions 1 Comment

Markets press on, new highs. However, biotech (IBB) is losing luster.

It could be just a temporary blip on the road upward.

Or, there could be something else afoot not known to the general public … and possibly not even known to professional speculators and market traders.

The video link below is to an alternate (independent) platform. One among many popping up in response to ‘adjustments’ being made by YouTube.

The video at this link is nearly an hour long.  It’s one of those things that upon viewing the entire presentation, one can never be the same.

 Viewer beware.  For those with short attentions, fast forward to Time Stamp 22:50, for the meat.

Wyckoff stated a century ago ‘the reason for a move is always revealed after the fact’; we might find if IBB reverses from here and does not look back, the link above may ultimately become the ‘reason’ for such a move.

Imagine if this presentation becomes widespread knowledge … where will biotech be then?

Of course, price action is always the final arbiter.  Positions (and stops) remain unchanged.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Crowded Trades

December 29, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, IBB, LABD, Positions

Gold miner (GDX) bulls and bears have been fighting in a crowded trade since late November.

This morning’s GDX retrace up (and now down) from yesterday is a case in point. 

In such a choppy environment, inverse funds lose market value (downside bias) quickly and trades need to be avoided.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, biotech (IBB) has formed a top, reversed, and posted a new weekly low today.

An hourly trend-line has been formed as well (not shown). 

If it holds as (or if) IBB declines past current support (~152 area), that hourly trend is moving lower at just over -96%, annualized.

Maintaining negative trend, with declining momentum on both daily and weekly timeframes is what we’re looking for.

The objective (not advice, not a recommendation) is to move stops (shown below) and maintain the trade until stopped out or trend break.

As of this post (1:03 p.m. EST), the current price of LABD and BIS are listed in the ‘Close’ column. 

The “R-G/L” is from Dr. Van Tharp’s concept of Risk Gain/Loss.

Example:  If $1,000 of capital was “risked” (entry-to-stop) on the LABD, position, that position is now up by 6.83-R, or $6,830.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Massive Market Distortions

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD

It’s hard to describe how stretched the market really is; how ‘the euphoria is so maximized’, as quoted by David Quintieri of the Money GPS.

His latest report, delves into published articles that contain one market stretched quote after another. 

Perhaps, the most frightening is: ”This does not feel like the top”.

You can find that report at this link.  The quotes listed above and more, start around the 1:40, time stamp.

In the markets as of this post (2:08 p.m. EST), biotech (IBB) continues to erode throughout the session. 

The firm has made one LABD (3X, Inverse) and two BIS (2X, Inverse) entries this session so far. Not advice, not a recommendation.

Note the stop progression on BIS entries.

Positions are below; not advice, not a recommendation:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Chart Nuances

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD

It’s been a while since biotech (IBB) was on the radar.

We’re going to look at the thirty-minute chart of 2X Inverse fund BIS, to show the change in character.

The first two oval areas after each up move in BIS (IBB down), was fully retraced. Not only that, the retrace occurred on the same day.

Not so with the last oval, today.

BIS has a changed character.  The thirty-minute bar was not retraced; telling us we’re at the danger point where the risk is least.

Both the weekly and daily MACD indicators show momentum has shifted; stalled (on weekly) and has turned lower on the daily.

As far as shorting the biotech sector, any takers?  It’s not like the other crowded trades; Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and on.

As this post is being written BIS is edging back slightly to the entry point @ BIS, 22.23.

In so doing, there may be an hourly trend line forming.  If that happens, updates will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Trade Actions, Early Session

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUG, IBB, LABD, Positions

A brief list of changes:

Exit as planned on DUST. Stop was hit

Trader’s discretionary exit on DUG:  Gain ~ 4.80%

Entered short IBB via LABD (3X inverse) and BIS (2X inverse). Not advice, not a recommendation.

The biotech sector has lost momentum. 

Weekly MACD has diverged and is now flat. Additional analysis to come.

Position table is shown below:

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

XOP: Thrust Energy Down 60%

December 14, 2020 By in DUG, IBB, XOP 2 Comments

When compared to two weeks ago, Force Index (thrust energy) to the upside in XOP, has declined over 60%.

The pre-market shows that XOP may open higher.  If so, it will be into dissipating bullish demand combined with confluence of resistance discussed in the last report.

The first hour of trade may let us know if XOP has run its upward course.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

The anticipation is for a reversal … soon. If not, then it’s time to wait (as is being done with Biotech, IBB) until price action confirms the change.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Massive Volume: DUG

December 9, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUG, IBB, XOP

Inverse Oil ETF, DUG volume went off the scale today; the highest in at least four years.

The short-squeeze top in the sector, using XOP as the proxy was identified before today’s open in this report.

At that time, there was nothing significant about either XOP, or the inverse DUG other than being at opposite price extremes.

Today’s action changed that view. 

Apparently the juncture was significant enough; Today’s transaction volume in DUG, amounted to approximately $23-million.

That’s a huge number. Typical action is around $4-million.

Oil is inversely related to the dollar at this point.  The dollar proxy, UUP reached a new trend low last week but seems to have found support the past three sessions.

Being short the oil and gas sector via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) is essentially a leveraged bet on a dollar rally.

In other markets, after weeks of analysis and planning, biotech had its reversal but we’re not in it (on the short side) having exited yesterday.

Not to worry; the massive volume inflow to DUG suggests that we’re on the right track with who (or what) is going to be most vulnerable to a market reversal.

Biotech (IBB) price action may retrace upwards to test. If and when it does, we’ll re-evaluate.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Volume Surge: Inverse Oil (DUG)

December 9, 2020 By in BIS, DUG, IBB, XOP

Huge volume is moving into inverse oil fund DUG. 

Potentially the highest daily volume since 2016.

Indicates changing of hands.

Separately, (as of 1:18 p.m. EST), looks like everything is reversing.

Missed the IBB reversal by one day.  Price action is down hard.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep in The Heart of Texas

December 9, 2020 By in BIS, DUG, IBB, Positions, XOP 1 Comment

The stars at night are big and bright …

But all is not as it seems of course. 

It’s great that Texas has brought suit for ‘illegal’ voting. 

However, with eyes wide open, there could be more going on than just contesting an international vote-rigging scheme that has entrenched corruption on a grand scale.

The oligarch controlled medial of course puts their spin on it and plies its evil trade.

Despite the way it looks, lawsuit and all, this could really be the first salvo on U.S. Balkanization.  Plenty of information exists on the topic; here’s one source.

Texas of course would have to establish ground rules or structure for such action …. If that was to happen at the current pace of events … five years?  Maybe faster.

A complete collapse and mass unemployment (with civil unrest … oh wait) would of course help things along from a public acceptance perspective.

Outlandish you say … complete insanity.  Really? 

How outlandish is an entire population running around with a piece of toilet paper across their face … afraid of something (the speck) that’s not even there. Even the CDC admits ‘no isolates [of the virus] are currently available [because it does not exist]’.

Go ahead … take a trip to your local graveyard.  Where are the bodies? 

By now, a real world-wide pandemic would have municipalities passing special measures (and taxes) to annex additional land to keep up with the dead.  Back-hoe operators would be in short supply and a booming business.

Not happening; because it’s not there.  The real story is here.

So, what about the markets?

Yesterday, the short positions in biotech were closed out as we got a higher open (not expected) instead of lower; even though bid/ask right up to the opening bell indicated a lower open..

IBB has now pushed past the 150-target area.  There are no more forecasts for this sector. We’re at the target and no reversal … yet.

Moving on and giving credit where it’s due, Steven Van Metre, is the situation in oil.

With a huge economic slowdown (another collapse) coming, demand for oil is likely to vaporize yet again.  Recall when the futures market went negative just eight months ago?

Oil prices may have been bid up on expected demand from a “re-opened” economy.  That’s the current narrative.

What’s really going on looks like a short-squeeze that may have played itself out.  The Weekly chart of XOP (oil/gas production ETF) shows upside progress has stopped dead.

Positions:

Based on the weekly price action of XOP shown below, we’re short oil and gas via DUG; a position established late yesterday.

At this juncture there’s no hard stop (not advice, not a recommendation) but we’ll wait during the fist hour of the coming session to see how the hourly bar posts.

Last week’s high in XOP was 61.06.  If price action pushes beyond that by any appreciable amount, we’ll exit inverse DUG.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.