Category Archives: IBB

Before The Open: Biotech

December 8, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions

Bid/Ask spreads on Biotech (IBB) indicate a lower open.

From last night’s update, this was the expectation if we’re in the early stages of reversal.

Empirical observation over many months shows IBB, tends to move counter-trend for the first 90-minutes of trade … then resumes its original direction.

If that holds true for today (and we’re in a reversal), expect IBB to open lower and then attempt a move higher during the first hour and a half; right up to about 10:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. EST.

Note:  That’s empirical observation; typical market action for IBB. 

However, each day is different and price action itself has the final say.

Both accounts being managed already have significant positions (BIS & LABD) with a BIS stop @ 24.64 and LABD stop @ 27.63 in the market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Following Livermore’s approach (get in big … and do it early) the plan is to monitor price action for another opportunity. 

If somehow there’s a higher open for IBB, then we’ll wait for a lower daily low (to increase position) or be stopped out … whichever comes first.

It’s still quiet in the markets.  No one expects a major reversal.  Retail is all in (although insiders are selling en masse).

There are fundamental reasons why biotech may be about to crack (big time) but those reasons are for another report.  Here’s a preview.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

After The Close

December 8, 2020 By in BIS, IBB, LABD 1 Comment

Culmination of probabilities; That’s what appears in Biotech, IBB

First: The 150 target identified in this post has subsequent price action reaching a 149.31, high … could be close enough

Second:  The daily chart has a small terminating wedge pattern created over the last five sessions.  A wedge is usually the last stop before reversal.

Third:  The amount of upward energy (Force Index) available to push prices higher has evaporated.  Today’s session, while closing marginally higher, had near zero energy.

Fourth:  Today’s price bar was a reversal; A higher open, higher high, followed by lower low and lower close.

Fifth:  The last reversal bar was five trading sessions ago.  That bar was negated by subsequent price action; leading up to today.

Markets alternate.  What happened the last time (negation of reversal) is not likely to happen this time.

Sixth … sort of.  The gold market and the miners (GDX) could have received a ‘safe-haven’ bid in advance of an overall market decline.  Did today’s rally in gold just signal the market top?

As of this post (8:02 p.m. EST) the overnight session (S&P) is trading lower -8.50-pts or -0.23%.  So, we’ll see.

With the above five items listed and the probable sixth, expectations are for a lower open on tomorrow’s IBB session, then adding weight to the reversal. 

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech (IBB) Late Session

December 7, 2020 By in BIS, IBB, LABD

If IBB is able to finish below resistance at 148, it will post a daily reversal bar.

Original upside target was the 150-area.  Looks like at this juncture, 149.31 may be all there is.

Hourly chart of IBB with notes, below.

Positioned short (not advice, not a recommendation), via BIS and LABD (separate accounts).

Stop:  BIS 24.64, LABD 27.63

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What’s Working … What’s Not

December 5, 2020 By in BIS, DUST, GDX, IBB, Positions 1 Comment

The final arbiter is price action itself.  We can analyze all we want but if the position does not cooperate, it’s time to leave.

Similar to closing nat-gas positions on November 3rd, as detailed here, it’s time to move on from Biotech; let it play out without us.

Biotech’s not working on the short side. So, we’ll come back when it is.

It’s important to note, after leaving UNG, it’s -21.2%, lower than November 3rd.

What’s working (for shorting), is gold and the miners (GDX) via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation). The GDX chart below shows the resistance level which is also the 23.6%, retrace.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare. 

If that level is not challenged and GDX continues lower, the shallow retrace (to the upside) indicates significant weakness.

Recap:  Markets (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) at all time highs.  The 30-yr Bond and Dollar, at short level extremes; the most in history.

Gold and GDX appear to be out in front, leading the way lower.

Managed Accounts

Number                     Detail             Position        Stop

6XXX-XXXX            Short GDX     DUST             21.81

5XXX-XXXX            Short GDX     DUST             21.81

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Before The Open

December 4, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, DIA, Holiday Turns, IBB, SPY

In the pre-market (8:52 a.m. EST) action continues to grind higher.  Both the Dow and S&P have posted new highs thus negating the Holiday Turns scenario … but not by much.

Important to note is each market continues to post on the underside of a long-term trend-line.  The Dow chart (DIA) is farther down this post.

Also added to the chart is the dashed trend-line underneath the recent price action.  A wedge is being formed; typically last stop before reversal.

In other markets, looks like Biotech may continue higher but along with the others, action appears labored.

The short position could be stopped out at the open. 

This area of price action is where cost of being wrong is least.  We’re at The Danger Point.

Update: 9:04 a.m. EST: Both AMGN and MRNA have now posted lower in pre-market.

Stopped out does not mean there’s no opportunity.  The bearish MACD divergence is still there.

If IBB continues higher, the original ‘150’ target is back in play.

The market extremes are still there:  Bonds and the Dollar are short the most in history.  Stretched all around.

It’s not unreasonable to expect several attempts to position short.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: By the Book

December 3, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions

If during a reversal, price action comes back on contracting volume, the reversal has been tested.

Biotech, IBB has done just that.  It’s a near textbook example. 

Today was upward action. An exact Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace of the three-day move with volume contracting over 41% from the prior session. 

Under such conditions, there’s high probability of an immediate resumption of the reversal trend.

We’ll see if biotech (IBB) resumes the downward reversal at the next session; Tomorrow, Friday.

Market positions remain unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) and shown below

Managed Accounts

Detail              Position         Stop

Short GDX     DUST             20.44

Short IBB       BIS                  25.46

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold: Reversal Now?

December 2, 2020 By in BIS, DUST, GDX, GLD, IBB

If the trend is in-effect as shown, GLD could reverse tomorrow or in the overnight session.

The senior miners (GDX) stalled during today’s session.  Price action is still at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace level.

To help clarify the firm’s positions, the following detail is provided as a courtesy only.

Several accounts are being managed.  Currently there are two open positions in separate accounts (not advice, not a recommendation):

Managed Accounts

Detail              Position         Stop

Short GDX     DUST             20.44

Short IBB       BIS                  25.46

Everyone has their own style.  Ours adheres to tenets laid down by three market masters from the early 1900s.  Detail on those criteria can be found here.

One of the reasons for choosing Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb, is that no evidence exists these individuals were part of any full scale corruption or being the lap-dog for the globalist elite.

That statement is the complete opposite of what we have today. At this stage, the corruption and lap-doggery should be obvious to all.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

After The Close: Biotech

December 1, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB

Attempted breakout that failed … thus far.   That was today’s action for Biotech (IBB).

The (weekly MACD) divergence set-up has been in the works for awhile.  The first time weekly MACD was discussed was this report nearly two months ago.

With the Dow reaching an apparent top last Tuesday and with other markets (S&P, NASDAQ) following suit today, there’s potential we’re at a pivot point.

Note that Biotech’s all time closing high remains IBB 145.80, reached back on July 20th, this year.

Volume for today’s session increased 43% over yesterday. However this session only pushed 0.23%, higher; opposed to a 1.23%, gain on Monday. 

Upward progress slowed significantly in the face of higher volume.  The bulls are tired.

While external world chaos rages, here, here and here, we’re focused on price action and taking advantage of low risk opportunities.

The response was to go short via BIS (not advice, not a recommendation) at BIS 25.61, with a stop set at BIS 25.46.

Note on stops and trading:

Every speculator has their style.  We’re perfectly comfortable getting stopped out and re-entering several times on what is considered a viable set-up.

The current position may be stopped out at the next session.  Depending on the price action at the time, the bearish divergence on the weekly may still be in effect and allow for a re-entry into the trade.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Short: Initial Entry

December 1, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB

At this juncture, 1:12 p.m. EST, IBB has retreated from the all time highs.

A close below resistance at this session would be significant

Just 1.99-points shy of the target: Initial short via BIS @ 25.60 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Upside Breakout

November 27, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB 1 Comment

Wedge patterns are the end of the line.  They typically come after a sustained move whether it’s up or down.

IBB has been oscillating and coiling for weeks.

The last trade in this sector was a short position (via BIS), opened October 14th, then closed the next day for a gain slightly higher than 4%.

Back then, the thinking was IBB is to make new highs just before the election (in turn posting a bearish MACD on the weekly) and then reverse.

It didn’t happen.

This is the way of the markets.  Setups begin to form, come to fruition or fade away. 

Contrary to what the advertisements say (to lure the uninitiated), you don’t “work five minutes a day” and achieve phenomenal success.

It’s just another lie … at this point we should all be used to that. 

If IBB continues higher in a measured move to the 150-area, it will push past resistance and post all time highs in the process. 

It could set up for a bearish MACD divergence as well.

If and when this happens, depending on price action, we might see another low-risk area for a short position.

Stay Tuned.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.