Category Archives: Nasdaq

Real Estate … The Set-Up

October 21, 2022 By in Biotech, Dow 30, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Nasdaq, Positions, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SPBIO 1 Comment

Looking For The ‘Reversal’ To Fail

The $2-Trillion Op-Ex today, provided upward bias for the overall markets.

Not expected, was biotech SPBIO, to be part of that move.

After today and possibly because of this announcement, we’re out of the sector until price action demands attention.

While the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ were up significantly for the day, obviously absent, was real estate (IYR).

Days like today help narrow the focus. Who is not participating in the up move?

While the other indices are up multiple percentage points, IYR, finished the day up only +0.69%.

Real Estate (IYR) Weekly

The prior linked YouTube post from Scott Walters is not the premise for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is, however, a reminder that what’s going on, is at a level no one has seen before.

Unless IYR, somehow gets out of the channel, it’s declining at -84%, annualized.

The set-up for this short trade (DRV-22-05) is based on a weak retrace (to 38.2%) on the daily with the anticipation, today’s reversal bar will ‘fail’ at the next session.

Real Estate, (IYR) Daily

The expectation for the next session is straightforward; lower open or gap-lower open and posting a new daily low.

The chart of IYR below, shows what we’re looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, a new daily high at the next session negates the set-up and warrants a trade exit.

A new daily low and we’ve got a ‘failure’ of the reversal bar; DRV-22-05, is liklely to be increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P, Retrace … And Then?

September 25, 2021 By in DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 2 Comments

S&P 500 (SPY) At 61.8%, Retrace

Actually, all three of the major indices, the S&P, The Dow, the NASDAQ have each retraced to (at or near) a Fibonacci 61.8%, level.

The daily SPY is shown above.

Taking away the Fibonacci retrace levels, then adding notations gives us the following:

It appears we could be at the right side of a Head & Shoulders top.

Price action rolling over from here, then bouncing around the neckline (before breakdown) would let us know, we’re in a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Changing Hands: Bonds

February 28, 2021 By in Bonds, Dow 30, Nasdaq, S&P 500, TLT, Van Metre

The financial press is rolling out the usual suspects; bonds yields are going stratospheric and hyperinflation’s just around the corner.

A more likely view, one that’s actually based on reality, the price action itself, bonds just changed hands; from weak to strong.

Those selling or going short bonds (weak hands) at this juncture are potentially left holding the bag in a big way.

Taking a trip back in time to Livermore’s day (Reminiscences), he stated time and again, the large speculators could not enter or exit their positions at will.

They needed to have some kind of ‘event’ with heavy volume so that it would mask their moves.

It looks like we just had such an event.

The weekly chart of TLT, shows two major volume spikes. One where bonds reversed lower and now … a potential reversal to the upside.

We’re dealing with probabilities and over two-hundred years of market activity (since the Buttonwood tree).

Huge volume spikes have significance. They typically signal a pivot or the start of one.

Using that reasoning, we may have seen confirmation of rotation not only in bonds but the markets themselves; The S&P, Dow, Nasdaq are pivoting lower, with bonds and the dollar reversing higher.

Summary:

The futures market opens in a few hours. It’s typically a light-volume affair for bonds.

At times, Steven Van Meter presents in his updates how bonds have been typically slammed lower in the overnight.

That type of action has been going on for months. We’ll be looking to see if there’s a change of character.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.