December Crash of 1899

123-Year Anniversary, Coming Up

It’s happened, before …

Even so, unless you knew it (and the exact date), finding information is difficult to near impossible.

A once free access to the New York Times article from December 19th, 1899, is now subscription based, link here.

Another link here, shows that December 19th, is not available for browsing.

Going to the site-map for that date, the crash is not at the top as one would expect.

It’s much farther down, buried in the list.

‘The worst day-panic, The Street has ever known’

Of course, in the NYT article, J.P. Morgan himself, is ‘credited’ with saving the market from further decline.

You have to laugh.

It’s just like an Arizona mid-term election. 🙂

Lastly, using the way-back machine, here’s an article from the Seattle Times, written in December 1999. It compares the situation (then) to a century earlier.

On Track For Another?

Obviously, that can’t be known until if/when, it happens.

However, we can look at the most watched market, the S&P, and see what it says.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily

We’re leaving in the moving averages to show, at least from the 200-Day perspective, the downtrend is still intact.

Other items to note:

The market is still sub-dividing lower, lower highs, lower lows. Price action’s retraced to a Fibonacci 38% (shown below), and is also in Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) position.

We’ll get closer-in with the details.

Moving averages have been removed for clarity.

The blue line is the resistance and up-thrust area. Price action clearly above and apparently, hesitating.

Dashed grey line is the Fibonacci 38% retrace from all-time highs (1/4/22), to the most recent lows set on 10/13/22.

Zooming back out, is the scariest part of this chart.

There’s no doubt; we’ve had at least two repeating trendlines. A third could make it a trading channel.

Summary

As of this post (11:28 a.m., EST), SPY has yet to post a new daily low (below SPY, 394.49). If or when it does, that’s just one more addition to the bearish scenario.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

The focus is on biotech; uniquely positioned as the weakest of all the major indices (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398, 17.565, 17.65, 18.1594***: Stop @ 16.29***

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279