Category Archives: NVDA

Nvidia Melt-Down … The Day After

January 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘Real Opportunities Are Rare’ … Gerald M. Loeb

Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’

To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:

“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.

That may tell us all we need to know.

But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.

However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?

Short answer is, no.

So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?

With that, let’s take a look at the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).

Loeb & Focus

Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton

He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.

With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.

Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nivida … ‘Shock-n-Awe’

January 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff

SOXX, Off-The-Cliff

Just two days ago, was this (emphasis added):

“The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX.”

Four days before that, was this:

” … what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.”

In effect, Wyckoff analysis gave us a ‘head’s up’ nearly a week ago, the SOXX may be about to reverse.

That was plenty of time to decide whether to position short or stand-aside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, this morning the (tech) market’s in a panic.

Over-the-weekend news about threats to Nvidia’s lock on A.I., with this and this resulted in futures opening lower Sunday night.

Then it got worse, link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily (line/close)

Let’s start first, with the last update.

Now, updated as of 10:53 a.m., EST.

On the daily bar-chart (not shown), we have a massive gap-lower open.

Will that gap be filled or is this a real breakaway and the start of a long-sustained bubble deflating decline?

That of course, is unknown.

What is known and presented on this site, Wyckoff analysis, with its century old technique, spotted the potential for reversal well ahead of the actual fact (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Note

As the sidebar shows, since the beginning of this year, there have been several attempts to position short in the SOXX via leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Trades SOXS-25-01 (not discussed), and SOXS-25-02, were first, then closed, with trade SOXS-25-03, opened last Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Melt Up … Blow Up … What?

November 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Confusion Abounds

So, what’s it going to be?

Hyperinflationary melt-up? A massive crash? Trump-bump to new era of prosperity?

From a strategic standpoint, taking the pulse of analysis presented in the mainstream, on YouTube, et al., it’s a mass of confusion and differing opinions.

When all else fails, when in doubt, just spit out the ‘inflation’ rout. 🙂

A Different Approach

This site’s focused on truth and truth, attracts few followers.

One of those truths is Nvidia’s latest earnings release.

That release may have indicated, the A.I. bubble, the bubble of all bubbles, has popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s take a look at the sector and see what it’s telling us.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

This prior update said we’re waiting for the break.

Well, we got it and now, an apparent test at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the October 15th, highs.

We’ll know soon enough, if the above work and the prior updates have identified the A.I. bubble top correctly.

Using the price action model of bubbles past, a trend break under the above conditions may signal an imminent, sustained, decline not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !!!

November 21, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

… And, Another One Down …

‘Another one bites the dust.’

Nvidia price action posts ‘out-side-down’.

There was plenty of after-market, and pre-market shenanigans concerning the ‘earnings‘ release.

The result? A.I. will still save the world, just a little slower than previously thought (not advice, not a recommendation).

But wait… do I still get to sign women’s breasts?

While price action in NVDA, is obvious, outside down (at mid-session), what’s not so obvious, is the sector itself.

What’s the SOXX, telling us?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the repeating pattern, ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As a bonus chart, we also have a potential trading channel.

Of course, the right-side line is a data-point of one. It’s not confirmed.

That is the way of the markets.

One needs to see (and manage) the potential before it becomes obvious.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Breakaway Gaps’ … Downside

November 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

A.I. Bubble Implosion, Update

Before we start, it’s important to note as far as the mainstream’s concerned, all is well, Nvidia continues to ‘dominate’, link here.

In that link, there’s no serious discussion on what price action is actually doing.

For that, we have this update. 🙂

Since the last post on the SOXX, it has broken the trendline to the downside.

If we model this bubble against bubbles past, specifically the 2000s internet bubble, then the SOXX has started its long, potentially sustained, decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen; Nvidia has yet to report earnings (scheduled for after-the-bell, today).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The blue arrows are breakaway gaps, indicating bearish conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), the SOXX is attempting to ‘spring’ upward off the penetration of the new daily lows.

This is normal market behavior; it’s what happens after the close that will potentially be most important.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Ruled by Fibonacci

November 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Pivots at Fibonacci Counts

Using the ‘Way-Back‘ machine, going to this post, we see NVDA, is being influenced by Fibonacci; more specifically, the weekly counts.

The week before last may have put in the (final) top in for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

That week was also Fibonacci ‘Week 21’, from the pivot high of ‘Week 89’, detailed in the link above.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

Note that upward thrust energy is declining.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top Tick & Top

November 4, 2024 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression 2.0, INTC, NVDA

Contrary Indicators

Intel (INTC) added to the Dow Jones on November 1st, 1999.

Intel (to be) removed from the Dow Jones on November 7th, 2024.

Replacing Intel, we have (surprise), Nvidia, who could have guessed. 🙂

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Buffett’s selling; not like it’s 1999, but more like it’s 1929.

Sentiment Indicators

Adding Nvidia, removing Intel, could be contrary indicators and potential (near) top-tick for NVDA (not advice, not a recommendation).

Buffett, an indicator of his own, marking the (potential) market top itself with his massive selling (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Keeps on Slippin’

October 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Downward Pressure

Insiders have sold out; the train has left the station.

Big caps, NVDA, and TSM, appear to have reached (and reversed from) all-time highs, simultaneously but separately.

NVDA, with an Up-Thrust, TSM, with an exhaustion spike (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen, there could be a reversal.

For now however, downward pressure appears to be increasing.

Taiwan Semi opened below yesterday’s low and Nvidia posted a new daily low within seconds after its open.

Let’s look at Nvidia and see how Fibonacci time sequences are affecting price action.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

At this juncture, we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action posted above resistance (blue line) and retreated.

Note the ‘Week 89’, first discussed here, and here.

Then, we have yesterday’s action at both Fibonacci count 89 (minus two days) and 55 (plus one day).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Higher … SOXX Lower

October 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX

Struggling At The Top

Nvidia is posting both positive and negative early in the session.

Already shown in prior posts, NVDA has been correlating well with Fibonacci time counts.

Taking a look at today’s struggle, we’re within the margin of error for Fibonacci Day 89, from the last all-time high, June 20th, this year.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re at ‘Day 89’, minus two days.

Meanwhile, the rest of the sector (SOXX), continues to verify a nascent trendline lower, last update here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279