Category Archives: NVDA

Nvidia … BOOM !!!

November 21, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

… And, Another One Down …

‘Another one bites the dust.’

Nvidia price action posts ‘out-side-down’.

There was plenty of after-market, and pre-market shenanigans concerning the ‘earnings‘ release.

The result? A.I. will still save the world, just a little slower than previously thought (not advice, not a recommendation).

But wait… do I still get to sign women’s breasts?

While price action in NVDA, is obvious, outside down (at mid-session), what’s not so obvious, is the sector itself.

What’s the SOXX, telling us?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the repeating pattern, ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As a bonus chart, we also have a potential trading channel.

Of course, the right-side line is a data-point of one. It’s not confirmed.

That is the way of the markets.

One needs to see (and manage) the potential before it becomes obvious.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Breakaway Gaps’ … Downside

November 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

A.I. Bubble Implosion, Update

Before we start, it’s important to note as far as the mainstream’s concerned, all is well, Nvidia continues to ‘dominate’, link here.

In that link, there’s no serious discussion on what price action is actually doing.

For that, we have this update. 🙂

Since the last post on the SOXX, it has broken the trendline to the downside.

If we model this bubble against bubbles past, specifically the 2000s internet bubble, then the SOXX has started its long, potentially sustained, decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen; Nvidia has yet to report earnings (scheduled for after-the-bell, today).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The blue arrows are breakaway gaps, indicating bearish conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), the SOXX is attempting to ‘spring’ upward off the penetration of the new daily lows.

This is normal market behavior; it’s what happens after the close that will potentially be most important.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Ruled by Fibonacci

November 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Pivots at Fibonacci Counts

Using the ‘Way-Back‘ machine, going to this post, we see NVDA, is being influenced by Fibonacci; more specifically, the weekly counts.

The week before last may have put in the (final) top in for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

That week was also Fibonacci ‘Week 21’, from the pivot high of ‘Week 89’, detailed in the link above.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

Note that upward thrust energy is declining.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top Tick & Top

November 4, 2024 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression 2.0, INTC, NVDA

Contrary Indicators

Intel (INTC) added to the Dow Jones on November 1st, 1999.

Intel (to be) removed from the Dow Jones on November 7th, 2024.

Replacing Intel, we have (surprise), Nvidia, who could have guessed. 🙂

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Buffett’s selling; not like it’s 1999, but more like it’s 1929.

Sentiment Indicators

Adding Nvidia, removing Intel, could be contrary indicators and potential (near) top-tick for NVDA (not advice, not a recommendation).

Buffett, an indicator of his own, marking the (potential) market top itself with his massive selling (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Keeps on Slippin’

October 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Downward Pressure

Insiders have sold out; the train has left the station.

Big caps, NVDA, and TSM, appear to have reached (and reversed from) all-time highs, simultaneously but separately.

NVDA, with an Up-Thrust, TSM, with an exhaustion spike (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen, there could be a reversal.

For now however, downward pressure appears to be increasing.

Taiwan Semi opened below yesterday’s low and Nvidia posted a new daily low within seconds after its open.

Let’s look at Nvidia and see how Fibonacci time sequences are affecting price action.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

At this juncture, we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action posted above resistance (blue line) and retreated.

Note the ‘Week 89’, first discussed here, and here.

Then, we have yesterday’s action at both Fibonacci count 89 (minus two days) and 55 (plus one day).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Higher … SOXX Lower

October 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX

Struggling At The Top

Nvidia is posting both positive and negative early in the session.

Already shown in prior posts, NVDA has been correlating well with Fibonacci time counts.

Taking a look at today’s struggle, we’re within the margin of error for Fibonacci Day 89, from the last all-time high, June 20th, this year.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re at ‘Day 89’, minus two days.

Meanwhile, the rest of the sector (SOXX), continues to verify a nascent trendline lower, last update here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX & Channel

October 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM 1 Comment

Nascent Move

Is downside potential in the SOXX, just a throw of the dice or was last week’s action significant?

Taiwan Semi (TSM) posted what could be an exhaustion top.

Former leader Nvidia (NVDA), now potential laggard, only ticking up 0.13-pts, to new high before hesitating, pulling back.

Suppliers of processing equipment, the nuts-and-bolts of semiconductor production, have imploded.

It all looks significant, even from a cursory standpoint.

As kabuki theater rages on at the highs, SOXX itself, is down over -14%, from its July top.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

“What do you see?”

Is this the (hidden) channel?

Tuesday the 15th, posted down hard; then, traded in the lower half of the range for the rest of the week.

Positioning

Obviously, with all of the above, lower action is the expectation going forward.

However, if the SOXX, decides to reverse higher, exit of short position, SOXS-24-18, is likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi Industry at Risk?

October 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Potential Bottleneck

‘Surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’; Jesse Livermore

The potential all-time high (reversal) for Nvidia along with the A.I. bubble, was identified here and here.

If that analysis holds (it is, so far), we’re either in sideways congestion or outright reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Funny Thing Happened

If its reversal, that’s when funny things start to happen.

Like the only ultra-pure quartz mining operation in the world; used for semiconductors, possibly knocked off-line.

That kind of funny.

This article, link here, details potential risk to the semi-industry.

It doesn’t look like the semis’ are waiting around to find out.

The SOXX, just opened lower, currently trading lower (as of 9:42 a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If yesterday was the (up-thrust) test, it was on contracting volume when compared to September 26th’s, resistance penetration.

With this post coming out just before the open on the 27th, the implication was, a short position was about to be opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Entry in SOXS, was at 18.87, early in the session on the 27th; hard stop @ 18.60, the day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled SOXS-24-17.

Speculator’s Notes

The objective here is not necessarily to be ‘right’, but to minimize the risk.

With a ‘risk’ (distance between entry and stop) of just 0.27-points, a sizeable position can be opened.

Example. A ‘risk’ of $1,000 means position size is around 3,700 shares of SOXS.

At yesterday’s closing price (20.25), the position of 3,700 shares, would now be up a modest but decent $5,100.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News/Bad News … Micron

September 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Massive Volume & Gap

From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.

What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?

When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.

Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.

Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.

Micron Technology MU, Daily

We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).

It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:

Back then, was this:

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.

Implications

The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.

Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.

What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279