Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.
Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).
Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.
Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly
GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.
Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’; Jesse Livermore
The potential all-time high (reversal) for Nvidia along with the A.I. bubble, was identified here and here.
If that analysis holds (it is, so far), we’re either in sideways congestion or outright reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
A Funny Thing Happened
If its reversal, that’s when funny things start to happen.
Like the only ultra-pure quartz mining operation in the world; used for semiconductors, possibly knocked off-line.
That kind of funny.
This article, link here, details potential risk to the semi-industry.
It doesn’t look like the semis’ are waiting around to find out.
The SOXX, just opened lower, currently trading lower (as of 9:42 a.m., EST).
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
If yesterday was the (up-thrust) test, it was on contracting volume when compared to September 26th’s, resistance penetration.
With this post coming out just before the open on the 27th, the implication was, a short position was about to be opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning
Entry in SOXS, was at 18.87, early in the session on the 27th; hard stop @ 18.60, the day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).
Trade labeled SOXS-24-17.
Speculator’s Notes
The objective here is not necessarily to be ‘right’, but to minimize the risk.
With a ‘risk’ (distance between entry and stop) of just 0.27-points, a sizeable position can be opened.
Example. A ‘risk’ of $1,000 means position size is around 3,700 shares of SOXS.
At yesterday’s closing price (20.25), the position of 3,700 shares, would now be up a modest but decent $5,100.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.
What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?
When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.
Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.
Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.
Micron Technology MU, Daily
We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).
It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:
Back then, was this:
“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”
It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.
Implications
The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.
Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.
What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If you know something’s coming, then you can keep your head when it actually happens.
Nothing seems to bring out the (dollar collapse) pundits more than precious metals and specifically silver; we can throw in Nvidia as well, but that’s another story.
Strategically, Wyckoff analysis all the way back to April, of this year has proven correct.
That is, silver is not launching into some kind of hyperinflation breakout; it would have already done so.
No, silver is either preparing for a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).
We have one datapoint after another, the consumer is strapped; corporations, industries using silver are collapsing, going bankrupt; bullion dealers themselves have said silver demand has evaporated and on it goes.
With that, let’s look at what silver (SLV) is telling us.
Silver SLV Tracking ETF, Weekly
As of this post (10:45 a.m., EST), silver (SLV) is nearing yesterday’s high of 29.44
We’ve got a weekly bearish divergence that will be in effect if there’s a breakout and downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Of course, the question is, what happens if/when we get a breakout?
One thing is almost for sure, the ‘dollar collapse’ pundits, YouTubers et al., will be out in force. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The market gives us clues, we just need to know where to look.
Even before last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, bonds were already heading lower (rates higher), reversing the day before.
Tuesday through Friday had successive lower closes in long bonds, TLT.
All of that, to wind up the week ‘outside down’, or posting a ‘key reversal’.
Those don’t happen often.
Long Bonds TLT, Weekly
The last outside-down weekly bar (in an uptrend) was over two years ago.
Bond prices declined 32%, before recovering.
In what seems to be a recurring theme, Force Index (like XBI, NVDA) is telling us there’s little-to-no-energy left to move prices higher (rates lower).
Of course, anything can happen, and reversals can themselves be reversed.
However, if bonds continue lower, it’s probably time to get the popcorn ready to see how the media paints the picture.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 