Moderna, goes Parabolic

8:07 a.m, EST

Trending @ 5,000,000 %, Annualized !!!

The MRNA daily chart shows price action trending higher at roughly 5-million percent on annualized basis.

This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.

Obviously, you can’t keep 5-million percent going for long.

Moderna has now taken over Amgen (AMGN) as the largest cap in the IBB, biotech (ETF) index.

Amgen’s been trading since June 17, 1983. Moderna started just a little over two and a half years ago.

But let’s take a look at what’s really happening … what’s really going on behind the apparent good fortune of MRNA.

At one hour 22-miuntes and change, this link provides the most succinct account (to date) of the situation at hand.

Names, dates, places, patent numbers … it’s all there.

Pre-market trading in MRNA, shows a flat to slightly higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Set-Up

Summary:

Technical conditions have come together in biotech (SPBIO), indicating we’re at the danger point.

At this juncture, risk is least for short positioning.

Price action can go either way. However, the cost of being wrong (stop being hit) has been minimized.

Supporting Data:

This past week saw the biotech index retrace to a Fibonacci 23.6%, level and stall. Yesterday’s action was in a narrow range; potentially testing for more upside.

That (upside) didn’t happen.

Such a shallow retrace is rare. More typical is at least a 38.2%, level being tested before price reverses and heads lower.

If the index heads lower from here, that shallow retrace points to significant (major) weakness.

The daily of SPBIO is below with the 23.6% shown:

We’re going the compress the time-scale and invert the chart. Note the Fibonacci time correlation between price spikes:

Taking those 34-days and having the market itself define what’s important, it’s possible we have a trading channel as shown:

Prior updates have also shown SPBIO got into up-thrust (reversal) condition as it tested the retrace level.

Yesterday’s action (narrow range, no new daily high) was consistent with that assessment.

Additional Fundamentals:

A significant, immense, fundamental bearish case has already been built for biotech.

As Reiner Fuellmich put it, he’s working to bring ‘crimes against humanity’ lawsuits to those who are complicit in the largest scam and potential genocide in world history.

If the numbers can be believed (even if they’re wrong, they’re huge) nearly 1-Billion people have been injected.

Of course, not everyone in the sector is complicit.

Even so, years ago (July 2015) when biotech reached a major high, David Stockman analyzed the sector.

He concluded the fundamentals were so bad, the entire sector could be summed up as ‘two trillion dollars of bottled air’.

We’ll have to figure not much has changed and/or, it’s probably worse.

Meanwhile, the insanity keeps piling up.

This just out a couple of days ago; a story about mixing the speck injections together. Just like you would do with a cake recipe. What could go wrong … unless it’s planned that way.

Conclusion:

We’ll know pretty quickly next week if we’re at the inflection point. The expectation is for lower action in SPBIO.

The LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) stop is tight and in the market. There have been no position changes since the last ‘project update‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Shell Game

12:32 p.m. EST:

If we pretend like we’re doing something, maybe no one will notice the real plan.

That plan is and always has been, to cull the herd.

For the sake of distraction, the EU is suing a major biotech manufacturer for a botched rollout.

Going to the ZeroHedge site and looking at the comments, we have a segment of the population that’s fully awake. A typical comment below:

After listening to the Amandha Vollmer interview, it appears ‘the great awakening’ as she calls it, is gaining steam.

As a side note: The Canadian government has been unsuccessful in shutting her business down and/or imposing fines for violating ‘speck’ mandates.

Her business is open. Masks are forbidden at her office.

Therefore, it’s possible and it is being done.

When or if Reiner Fuellmich is able to bring actual (Nuremberg style) suits to blow the whole narrative wide open is unknown … but we do have this:

Human rights attorney, Leigh Dundas calls for censure, resignation, termination and jail time for members of California’s Orange County Board of Supervisors.

We can see it all gaining ground.

When or if this market finally breaks loose to the downside, one has to be mentally prepared for an implosion like no other.

Remember oil futures going negative? Enough said.

Market Analysis:

All of the above provides the backdrop for biotech.

It’s interesting (then again, not really) how this sector’s nascent bear market’s being ignored by the financial press.

Instead of a breakout to the downside (as expected), yesterday the sector SPBIO, decided to test the 23.6%, retrace area.

Today’s early session was spent testing (to the upside) the resistance area.

Price action is now tentatively reversing; about to head lower again.

The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) shows yesterday’s exit (well past the stop) and re-entry of the short position; not advice, not a recommendation.

For reasons that may be covered later, the stop was not in the market at the time.

In addition, there was a trading platform lock-up (on the broker’s side) at exit and re-entry. A series of amateur-like errors all around.

It’s just a reminder to all; when the market turns lower in earnest, brokers and their trade platforms may (probably will) become inoperative.

The whole event resulted in a significant ding to our ‘project account’

How quickly can this recover … we’ll see.

Below, we have the hourly chart again … but noted with what looks like a nascent trend.

That trend line was copied and re-positioned over prior LABD moves.

Note how this market repeats its characteristics. This angle of trend line has happened three times in the past month.

We have all been here before …

Summary:

We’re back in position. The chart has been updated and the stop (now in the market, GTC) listed at 20.96 (above break-even):

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Time’s Getting Short

2:11 p.m. EST:

We’re looking at biotech fund LABD (3X inverse IBB).

The case has already been made in a previous update, IBB upward bounces off support (on a weekly close basis), are traveling less distance.

Now, it looks like there’re reversing more quickly as well.

Each retrace move is taking less time. LABD has gone from twelve days before continuation, to four days …. and now, maybe just two?

This morning’s biotech IBB, action is either a reversal to more upside or it’s a short squeeze.

Long term momentum indicators remain down for IBB.

Probabilities point to a squeeze; especially so, if IBB continues to retrace lower into the close.

Fundamentals:

On that front, cracks continue to appear. Today and yesterday we have ‘speck’ therapy adverse reaction and outright ban actions being implemented.

As Reiner Fuellmich stated in his interview (link here), there’s a lot of infighting amongst the ruling oligarchs.

With such greed, avarice and deceit on full display, one can’t expect everyone (of them) to be operating in concert.

Positioning:

Our Project got stopped out with a profit early in the session. Based on the above data, that position, LABD has been re-entered (not advice not a recommendation):

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

“We have the evidence”

12:13 p.m. EST:

The link, located here is an interview with Reiner Fuellmich, a lawyer (a good one) that’s been at the center of the ‘speck’ investigation since inception.

This one interview, all nineteen-minutes, thirty one seconds, is probably the best summary of the current situation.

The link above comes with a warning:

If you’re one of those still asleep, after watching the interview, you’ll never be the same. You’ll be forever changed.

To put it biblically, “Your eyes will be opened”.

That is, if this lie can be perpetrated world-wide (as it has), then what does that say about all other media generated propaganda: the (stolen) election, the fake oval office, the fake executive orders, the fake insurrection.

The examples above are just from the past six-months!

For emphasis, we’ll throw in one more link that seems un-related but it’s not; it shows just how long events have been purposely shaped to fit a narrative.

Of course, this ‘thought shaping’ goes back even farther … if not a hundred years or more.

Market Impact:

So, what’s all this have to do with the markets and specifically biotech, IBB?

The interview’s implications for biotech are clear.

David Stockman has a post located here whose title sums it up nicely:

‘… a scam like no other’.

It’s just a matter of time before the public is either awakened or severely, permanently, damaged by following (and believing) the lie.

This time around, cemeteries are likely to be overrun … for real.

If that happens, repercussions to the biotech sector would (likely) be severe to catastrophic (down -90%, maybe?).

Even though a few within IBB are directly involved, all are likely to take a hit

Market Positioning:

In our Project Stimulus table, we’re short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop has been moved above break-even.

It’s important to not let fundamentals (above) bleed into market positioning. It’s impossible to say when or if fundamentals will take control.

What we have now is IBB looking as if those fundamentals are providing a backdrop for technical action (described below). However, technical action can change instantly.

Biotech, IBB Technical Analysis:

Typically, this morning’s action would signal a ‘short exit’ or ‘go long’; when price action immediately gaps above the prior session high.

However, we already know on a long term (quarterly, monthly, weekly) basis, IBB has reversed. That does not mean price can’t go into some type of truncated rally … it can.

What the long term momentum says, if a rally occurs, it’s likely to be short and reverse quickly.

As of this post, it looks like whatever rally there was, it was over within the hour.

Technically, we have an interesting situation. IBB may have formed an Andrews’ Pitchfork.

The first chart shows the set up and has the width of the Pitchfork at a Fibonacci 21-days (plus one).

The second chart is a compressed version for better perspective.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.