Knock Three Times …

Gold, GDX Warning: Breakdown Imminent?

It’s true when price action rebounds off a level, whether support or resistance, that level is confirmed.

However, personal (mental) bias, like the rabid hyperinflation ‘dollar destruction’ gold bulls, collectively have their minds so twisted, every bounce off so called support, is a buying opportunity.

That kind of blindness can set oneself up for (financial) disaster.

Well, we’re about to see if the current bounce was a buying opportunity or harbinger of a “free fall” breakdown.

Price action’s the final say. So, let’s take a look at what its been saying about the latest move.

Un-marked weekly chart of Senior Mining (ETF) Index GDX:

Next, comes the support line and contact points identified:

Now, comes the important part. Each rebound off support has less upward travel than before:

The right-most green arrow (upward travel), may or may not be complete. One fact in favor of completion is the significant amount of resistance around GDX, 33.00.

Price action has spent six weeks transacting in this area. Three weeks above support and now three weeks below.

Positioning:

We’re at the danger point; risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, price action does not need to go far to either support or negate a short trade set-up.

With that in mind, the Project Stimulus account is short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Destruction? Not Yet

Before The Open

‘Dollar Destruction’ To Be Postponed

Hyper-Inflation Not In The Charts

Who looks at the actual chart anyway … so old-school.

However, what that school is telling us, the dollar’s built a solid base for a sustained rally.

Then we have this: Uneducated Economist gives us links in his report on why dollar demand could increase substantially.

If dollars are going up, gold is going down.

At this juncture, there’s still an inverse correlation.

Position Update:

On a separate but related note, the FDA announcement from yesterday was not taken into account with the biotech plan. An error if you will.

The level of malfeasance as detailed in this link was not thought to be possible.

The Project Stimulus account exited the short biotech trade with a small gain as shown below.

More analysis to come on a potential long-term biotech reversal set-up not unlike the dollar.

For now, we’re out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Greed is Good’

11:53 a.m., EST

Old Fashioned Greed Saves The Day?

After BA pilot fatalities were confirmed, at least one airline is backing off from insisting their pilots are injected.

Some adverse reactions linked above, occurred in-flight; the pilot was incapacitated.

“Is there a pilot on-board?”

That could become a frequent call through the cabin intercom in the months … even years to come.

The bottom line implications are obvious.

The response to ‘back-off’ probably has nothing to do with safety and more to do with protecting those executive stock options.

Which brings us to the markets.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD)

The last update for biotech said it was ‘about to get real’. So, it has.

Looking at SPBIO inverse fund LABD, we have the familiar trend lines:

The market itself says it wants to follow this trend.

Pulling out to the weekly, we get what seems to be an incredible picture.

At the beginning of the trade, the short position in SPBIO, via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), had an exit time-frame during the second, or third week of October.

From an empirical and seasonal standpoint, that’s when on-going downtrends tend to reach their lows.

Already Baked In:

Various numbers are bandied about as to how many have been injected.

One estimate is 2-Billion, world-wide (Dr. Coleman if memory serves).

Total population at 7.9-Billion; 2-Billion, equates roughly to 25%

No matter what happens, de-population is already baked-in.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Technical Force

2:46 p.m., EST

LABD, Force Index Divergence

Sentiment, Volume, Price

Sentiment can’t be seen on the chart. One can guess but it can’t be measured directly.

Sentiment change comes first.

That change in turn, results in a change of volume, i.e. ‘commitment’.

Then, after commitment dissipates, price is next.

That looks like the current situation with biotech and specifically inverse fund, LABD.

In what may be an idiot or genius move (depending on outcome), the short in biotech SPBIO (via LABD) has been maintained throughout the current down thrust; not advice, not a recommendation.

The reasons for that decision have as many layers as the proverbial onion. Not the least of which, is a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.

‘Never happened before’, one might say.

Oil futures in their entire history have never gone negative before, either.

Bonds, in their entire history have never been shorted by four-standard deviations before, either.

A world-wide coordinated push to euthanize the entire population has never happened before, either.

Margin debt and valuations have never been higher before, either.

Underlying liquidity has never before been removed to the current extent, either.

So, we each have our own reasons.

The firm’s main account (not the Project Stimulus account) has drawn down about – 13%, on the current short position.

A core position has been maintained but small amounts have been removed and added based on price action.

When the anticipated gain, is high hundreds of percent and maybe above 1,000%, the draw down above, looks acceptable considering the (potential) opportunity.

On to the chart:

The daily chart of LABD, shows both net downward price action and thrust energy are dissipating.

Note the ‘Force Index’ scale has been accentuated to better show the divergence.

We’re looking for price to move back higher to test support/resistance areas.

If or when it does, the plan (as has been from the beginning) is to continue to add LABD until volatility makes it prohibitive.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: It’s a Set-Up

12:57 p.m., EST

‘Breakout or Set-Up’ has been resolved

Biotech IBB, posts new daily low.

Going back a few days, we had the chart above:

Price action then stalled, retraced, penetrated support (blue line).

Yesterday, it edged higher in a low-volume test. Today, it reversed again and has just now, posted a new daily low.

It’s high probability the set-up is complete:

The expectation is for biotech IBB (and SPBIO) to decline from here.

Measured move targets have already been discussed as well as Point & Figure targets.

Several times in these updates the word ‘collapse’ has been used to describe the potential for biotech.

The monthly chart below shows a Fibonacci projection based off current price action.

Note how projected levels match up with support and resistance areas:

Obvioulsy, this is a long term projection.

It may work out the short position in biotech via LABD, (not advice not a recommendation) will have to be exited and re-entered several or many times if/when the sector heads for the bottom.

Stay Tuned

Bonus:

The hourly chart of IBB below, shows Wednesday’s price action touching, then bouncing off the first Fibonacci projection.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Controlled Insanity

1:32 p.m., EST

It’s not ‘controlled opposition’

It’s controlled insanity

The masses (maybe all of us for that matter) have to be kept on edge just enough to be easily advanced to the next level of narrative.

Case in point, is this link.

It’s just one more piece of pre-programmed trash that’s attempting to control the public’s perception and direction.

“Globalists Losing Narrative”

Give me a break. Globalists aren’t losing anything. At least, not yet.

Markets & SPBIO

The overall markets are still hovering at all time highs; even as reports like this one, continue to show that everybody’s all-in on an unprecedented scale.

Evidently, they have no plan for down … where the real money’s made.

Moderna’s (MRNA) in its second day attempt to breakout higher; all the while, the index itself (SPBIO) continues to edge lower.

The 2-Hour chart of LABD below, shows a potential trend.

As with previous analysis comments, we’re looking for a trend the market itself, says is important:

It’s clear, the trend (above) has been repeated several times in LABD’s own price action.

LABD itself, tells us to pay attention.

The right side trend line might not look like much … but it’s rising at about +45,500%, on an annualized basis.

Positioning:

A break of this trend does not necessarily mean we’ll exit out Project Stimulus position; not advice, not a recommendation.

We’ve got the hard stop discussed previously at LABD 21.77; again, not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

While the retail traders/investors (the only direction they know is up) go collectively insane, we’re keeping under the radar and quietly maintaining the short positioning in biotech.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Lower, Lower … Weaker, Weaker

6:37 p.m., EST

Inverse biotech LABD, closes lower (again).

All is not what is seems.

Down-thrust energy diverging.

The daily close of LABD, shows price action has penetrated another (lower) support level.

Close below support on the weakest down-thrust energy (and lowest volume) since LABD, started its corrective move on May 14th.

Everyone has their own preferred time-frame. Ours is probably longer than most.

If there’s going to be a meltdown in biotech or some kind of serious correction lower, a likely bottom for a sustained move (as said before) will be where they usually are … the third week of October.

Price action is the final arbiter. However, it (SPBIO) has not (yet) indicated it’s on a new bull run to new highs.

At this point, the market’s frustrating both longs and shorts … and doing a good job of it as well.

Our short position via LABD, is being maintained … but the finger is edging closer to the sell button; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bulls Lose Their Footing

11:51 a.m., EST

The bulls upside attempt in biotech has failed

The last update said if biotech SPBIO, made a new daily high, the bulls would be gaining a foothold.

That new high and the foothold, have come and gone.

Admittedly, the retrace in SPBIO and inverse LABD went farther than anticipated.

However, as of this morning’s action, the attempt to move higher in biotech has either failed outright, or has been severely damaged.

If it’s failure, then we’re set up for a major downside move.

The daily chart of inverse LABD, has the now familiar trend-lines that are a repeating pattern.

The last two days may have formed yet another right side trend; rising at the same angle as the others on the chart.

There’s a remote chance, as price action nears SPBIO support (LABD near 30), the bulls could once again attempt to reverse course.

With the overall market oscillating to the downside (today’s counter move notwithstanding) and with biotech in the downside lead, an upside move seems unlikely.

The Project Stimulus position remains unchanged.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The ‘Gut Check’

9:09 a.m., EST

If there’s going to be a big move, the market will make sure you’re not along for the ride.

The proverbial ‘gut check’, as David Weis used to call it.

It’s an adverse move that’s intended to shake any (all, if possible) weak hands out of their positions.

How will we know if that’s what’s going on with biotech’s, SPBIO?

Yesterday, was an upside reversal bar on the daily SPBIO, chart. Will the market go higher (LABD, lower) from here?

The first clue will be the open.

If SPBIO opens lower, with inverse LABD opening higher, we’re on the right track for more biotech downside.

If LABD makes a new daily high … above yesterday’s LABD, 30.42, high, we have confirmation of a shake-out.

Right now, we’re still in the pre-market.

However, LABD is already trading up between +3.5% – +4.7%, which weighs probability to more upside … downside for SPBIO.

If SPBIO somehow makes a new daily high (LABD, new low), the bulls are gaining a foothold.

At this point, the Project Stimulus account remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation):

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Has Left The Station

11:01 a.m. EST

Early morning action confirms trend’s right side.

Massive downside potential for biotech SPBIO; upside for inverse, LABD.

Unless there’s some kind of unexpected reversal, LABD is showing its colors … huge upside potential.

As expected, LABD has completed its testing action previously discussed in these two updates; here and here.

At the minimum, we’ve got a right side LABD trend that if followed, will result in a doubling of current price near the end of this month or early next.

A trailing stop can be used which adheres to the (now confirmed) trend; not advice, not a recommendation.

If LABD really is in the channel shown, the top of the range even at this point, is around the 170-level; nearly 550%, from current price.

As always, anything can happen. For now, we’re sitting tight and letting price action dictate the next trading move.

The Project Stimulus account will need to get above the $2,000 level before margin is allowed (by the broker).

By that time, it may be a moot point; volatility could be too high for any kind of size increase.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.