Category Archives: Semiconductors

Nvidia … at the Trend Line

April 1, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Another Reversal?

Nvidia penetrated support and rebounded.

Now, it’s near a contact point on a downtrend line, that’s also part of a trading channel.

Behavior of the market as it pushed above resistance (up-thrust), then below support (spring) is clearly demonstrated.

This is what markets do, have done, for over a century.

As far back as 1902, in Wyckoff’s autobiography, he figured out that such movements have ‘nothing to do with valuations’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GW-26-09, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Blip and Dip

March 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Then, There’s The Channel

The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.

Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.

If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.

This is scary business.

It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakout … SOXX

March 26, 2026 By in SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, SOXX-26-01, SOXS-26-01 Leave a comment

Will The Gap Be Filled?

The SOXX opened gap-down and has continued lower during the early session.

Some gaps are never filled.

The chart from yesterday’s post has been updated with today’s action so far.

It’s clear, the market has respected the Fibonacci sequence.

Now that it’s obvious, it’s likely to morph into something else (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Based on where we are in this historic market bubble (i.e., continuing lower), probabilities for retrace and gap-fill at this point, are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trade SOXX-26-01

When an attempt was made to sell short SOXX, increase position size, the broker indicated “no additional shares available”.

That short was quickly covered (with profit) and another short opened via 3X inverse fund SOXS, as SOXS-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading leveraged inverse funds on a medium-term basis requires more active monitoring, so one does not get whacked with an adverse move. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Top, Gap-Fill

March 25, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-26-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Checklist Complete?

The SOXX closed above resistance, discussed in previous updates, here, here, and here.

This is The Danger Point®, where we have an instability.

Price action needs to decide if that was it for the upside or if somehow, we’re on to new all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, today was Day 21 from the February 25th, all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We have the following technical conditions:

Penetration above established resistance levels.

Fibonacci 21-Days, from all-time highs.

Fibonacci 13-Days, from the March 9th low.

Fibonacci 61.8% retrace on print basis and 50% retrace on close basis.

With that said, SOXX sold short; trade SOXX-26-01, stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tomfoolery, Between Sessions

March 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Genesis 41, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Navigating Through The Fray

First, it was Monday’s pre-market spike on (so-called) news of on-going ‘negotiations‘, which the other side says, didn’t happen.

Then, today, just after the close we have another spike on reports of a ceasefire.

While we’re at it, let’s add this into the mix, link here.

That last datapoint and maybe more like it to come, could be the real problem on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

With all that said, the ‘spikes’ are helping to inch the SOXX higher. Tomorrow is Day 21, from all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re posting a segment of price action to show after-hours trading is higher, very near the blue resistance line.

A significant print above that line at the next session, would put the SOXX in up-thrust (potential reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, in a ‘Coil’

March 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Last Gasp, Gap Fill?

It’s not unrealistic to say, there’s a struggle going on in the SOXX.

The last update showed the potential failure of gap-close attempts, link here.

Today’s action so far, looks like another battle to post into that area (not advice, not a recommendation).

The level to watch, is from March 11th, at 342.09.

A close significantly above, puts the SOXX, in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Sleeper … Corning

March 17, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GLW-26-07, NVDA, Semiconductors

Next Leg Down?

What if you got a ‘secret’ phone call, telling you to focus on one stock; that it would go farther, last longer, than anyone expected?

It would have worked with Nvidia.

Nvidia’s return from the 2008 low (0.14-split adjusted) to the 2025 high at 212.19, was a mind-blowing 151,464%.

A modest $10,000 turns into $15.2-million.

In the case below, it’s still too early to tell if Corning GLW, could be that stock, but to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Corning GLW, Daily

Currently, GLW is attempting to close the opening gap.

For the above hypothesis to be remotely viable, GLW, must close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, tomorrow’s action needs to be lower as well and stay within the channel, shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s a lot of ‘if, and then’

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Capitulation, and Kick-Off

March 6, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX

What, Was That?

The semiconductor SOXX, ETF just had its largest ever, weekly downward thrust energy.

The last time it got close, was the downside ‘capitulation’ back in early April, last year.

Other than those two events, there’s never been a similar extreme going all the way back to July of 2001.

Semiconductors ETF, SOXX, Weekly

As the note says, it’s unknown if this is an actual kick-off to a sustained downside.

With such an historic print lower, ‘normal’ market behavior is for some kind of upside testing next week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, in the various Ed Dowd interviews, his comments to the effect:

‘When this thing (A.I. mania) starts to unravel, it’s going to happen quickly’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279