Reverse Trendline
The segment at left, shows the ‘reverse trendline’ technique in action.
The left side trendline was drawn first (days ago), then brought forward to the most recent high (at No. 1).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
What’s Next?
Last week, both Nvidia and Taiwan Semi, the two largest caps in the sector, reversed from their all-time highs.
The SOXX chart shows the effect of that action.
Now, we’re at a support level (dashed line).
‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
‘There’, is a new All-Time High
Two weeks ago, was this update showing the (net) upward progress of the S&P was slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, two days later was this, presenting how the index might make it to another high.
Now, the SPY chart is mimicking the longer timeframe by having successive shorter thrusts (magenta arrows).
At this point it’s a toss-up but does it really matter?
Meaning, if the downside is being worked (shorted), large numbers of tickers are already in essentially free-fall: AZO, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW; way below their all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: All have been covered at some point, on this site.
One sector that’s not cracked (yet) but seems to be building up immense pressure, is biotech.
Barring any unforeseen event, XBI is covered next.
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Test, Before Down?
The all-time high is at the far left of the chart.
Then, we have a resistance level, (blue lines), penetrated at ‘1‘.
Today’s red candle is Day 13 from ‘1‘, or Day 8 from the most recent daily lows.
From a Wyckoff perspective, we could look at Point 1, as an up-thrust, followed by ‘sign-of-supply’, and then a test.
Today’s new daily low at Fibonacci Day 8, or Day 13, may help us point odds to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Dow, S&P, Qs Et al.
The Dow (DIA) all-time highs were on August 5th, the S&P (SPY) on August 13th, the Qs (QQQ), way back on June 3rd; Semiconductors (SOXX), June 22nd, and the list goes on.
We have updates by the day, if not the hour, like this, this, and this, letting us know in real-time, the air’s coming out of the bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, ‘gentlemen, start your engines‘ 🙂
Pick your market
Biotech XBI, Daily
The chart has an added bonus, showing the potential trading channel.
Trade Action: Yesterday, XBI-26-11, was exited at break even, then re-established (short) as XBI-26-12, and well-in-the-green by the close (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
While Delays Mount
While Ox Talks reports on mounting delays in the A.I. ‘narrative’, link here, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, appears ready to breakdown out of a wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Volume Contracts
In the early after-hours session (7:25 p.m., EST), the SOXX continues to hover at the right side down-trend line.
It’s been a steady, almost imperceptible grind lower over the past five sessions.
However, that right side line is declining at around -95%, annualized (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Demarcation Line
In the realm of the surreal, we have this.
Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.
All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Demand Evaporating?
Today was supposed to be the day when semis continued their short squeeze grind higher.
It didn’t happen.
Instead, we had various reversal patterns and (down) trendline confirmations.
The trend, channel, and minor wedge on MU, is a good example (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Ruh, Roh Moment
While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.
There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).
Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.
The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
