Category Archives: Semiconductors

Nvidia’s Test & Reversal

November 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Sell The News?

The last update, showed a wedge ‘throw-over’, then questioned (upper right of chart), ‘Will there be a test?’

Well, indeed there was a test (shown below). What happens next?

From one of Ed Dowd’s latest interviews, link here (Time Stamp: 4:30), he talks about ‘intervention’ within the A.I. bubble. He’s referring to news of this link.

His point: He thinks as a result of government equity stake, there could be ‘one more thrust higher’ before reversal.

The suggestion on this site, the news is already out.

The thrust higher may have already happened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

There’s always the possibility of a secondary test.

However, if NVDA has actually completed its throw-over test, and reversed, the example at this link (video), shows it can all fall apart very quickly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

How Nvidia Drops, -90%

November 8, 2025 By in 1899, Artificial Intelligence, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Terminating Wedge

It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.

Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.

The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.

Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.

If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Crash in The Past

The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.

A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX’s Wedge Launch Higher

October 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17

Incredibly Dangerous

Is it going to play out exactly as Bert Dohmen said it would?

That is, grinding ‘window dressing’ action higher, toward the end of the year?

With last night’s upside and higher open, the SOXX has negated the reversal and has posted something else.

It’s in the chart below, a ‘terminating wedge’.

Semiconductors SOXX, 2-Day

The 2-Day chart is a better view of the pattern.

A wedge typically occurs near the end of the move whether it’s up or down.

The pattern above, implies that Nvidia has one more last gasp (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next earnings release is scheduled for November 19th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Nvidia Crater by 90%?

October 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CSCO, Ed Dowd, MRNA, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17, Thoughtful Money

Sell & Hold

During an interview with Thoughtful Money (link here), Ed Dowd says this about the A.I. bubble:

‘When it’s all said and done, Nvidia will be down by 80% – 90%’

This morning, the SOXX just printed a new daily high. Does that mean the reversal has been negated?

That depends on what happens next.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We have the all time high and up-thrust. Then, the trend break (yesterday), and now the test.

Obviously, there’s a lot of volatility.

If this is ‘the’ reversal of the A. I. mania, possibly the largest bubble in market history, then action like this, is ‘normal’. 🙂

Just like Cisco Networks was chief cook and bottle washer back in the day, this time, it’s Nvidia.

When it was all said and done, CSCO declined over -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did The SOXX (and A.I.) Just Top?

October 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17 4 Comments

While Everyone’s Watching The Metals

Yesterday, the metals and miners imploded.

While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.

Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.

Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.

The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.

As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX Test?

October 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX

Test, Downside, or Reversal

Pre-market trading in the SOXX (as of 7:08 a.m., EST), looks different from other recent downside action.

Typically, in the overnight session, bids come in and launch the SOXX upward; yet another bear trap move.

This time, so far, it’s not happening.

There may be a change of character.

If that’s true, and the SOXX is about to continue its downside action, one of the following is likely.

  1. There’s a weak retrace to either 23.6%, or 38.2%
  2. A small blip higher in the early session, then reversal, new daily low
  3. An ‘inside’ narrow range day

Of course, none of the above could be the result as well.

Currently, the SOXX is trading at 282.92, slightly above yesterday’s close.

Note the Fed minutes release at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Jabil ‘Canary’

October 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-25-01, Positions, Semiconductors

First To Go

When the order-flow begins to slow, outsource is the first to go.

Jabil (JBL) is an outsource for electronics related manufacturing.

With about 138,000 employees, it’s big.

Response to the latest earnings, has kicked off what looks like a reversal and now, a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Jabil JBL, Daily

After the deep thrust lower on earnings, JBL retraced to 50% before rolling over.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279