Category Archives: SOXS-25-08

All Eyes on Nvidia

February 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Rally Into Earnings, (maybe) Good For Shorts

Yesterday’s post said to “expect a test of … support.”

That’s what we got.

Price action sliced through support levels for Nvidia and then rallied into the close.

This morning’s action continued that rally.

Short position SOXS-25-08, was exited early in the session (when SOXX, daily high exceeded yesterday’s high) with profit at +19.4% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Today, is Fibonacci ‘Day 34’, from the all-time highs.

Tomorrow, is Day 8, from the 2/18/25, pivot high.

Earnings are scheduled for release at 4:20 p.m., and conference call at 5:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. ‘Dominoes’, Start To Fall

February 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX, Wyckoff

Data-Center (lease) Cancellations

One of many to come?

The article at this link says the cancellation move was ‘unexpected’.

Clicking on ‘Artificial Intelligence’, (side-bar) and going back to August of ’23, with this post, then reading though subsequent posts, one can say the ‘cancellation’ was fully expected.

That August ’23, post has the link to Prechter’s analysis; we’re in the largest asset bubble in at least 300 years (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that brings us to chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’ll cut straight to the chase (as of 11:35 a.m., EST).

A Fibonacci projection is overlaid starting from the all-time-high (1/7/25), to the recent lows (2/3/25), back up to test (2/18/25), then reversal, again.

Note how last Friday’s price action printed and closed near the 23.6, Fibonacci projection.

Positioning

Everyone has their own preference and style.

As stated in the ‘About‘ section, this site works to emulate behaviors of the three masters listed.

That, in addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have been mentored by the late David Weis, results in what’s available on this site.

With that said, positioning in the SOXX (the A.I. proxy) is short, via SOXS, as SOXS-25-08, initial entry link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: SOXS-25-08, stop to be moved to the day’s session low; currently 18.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … The Path of Bubbles Past

February 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX

Modeling The Dot-Com

Nvidia looks like it’s rolling over.

There was an early morning ‘blip’ to the upside that was quickly retraced.

Known & Unknown

Some things are known.

We know Nvidia printed the largest-ever, downside thrust energy during the breakdown, January 27th.

Then came the process of retrace and test.

Also known (see chart) upside energy, i.e., Elder’s Force Index, at this point, has dissipated to almost nothing; suggesting the test is complete or near complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

At this juncture (12:18 p.m., EST) Nvidia is just 0.16-pts away from a lower weekly close and reversal bar.

The ‘Supply’ line is of course unknown until there’s more confirmation.

Bubbles Past

If we’re in a bubble, then work has already been done (link here) on what to expect when price action has tested its last to the upside, then turns lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Two … Days … Later

February 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

A New Daily Low

Nvidia fails to break above Tuesday’s, 2/18 high; instead, prints two (new) daily lows in a row.

In addition, if this action holds, it’s now posting a weekly reversal bar.

This analysis, link here, was early in its assessment.

With new daily lows and potential weekly reversal, probabilities favor continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action opened higher … therefore painting probabilities for more upside (as postulated in yesterday’s update); it didn’t happen.

So, we’re at the potential right side of a channel. The two magenta arrows show contact points

If this channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), then demand, the lower channel line, is a long way away.

Positioning

Naturally, with all of the above, a short was opened early in the session via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: SOXS-25-08, stop at the SOXS low, for the day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279