Category Archives: SOXS

Nivida … ‘Shock-n-Awe’

January 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff

SOXX, Off-The-Cliff

Just two days ago, was this (emphasis added):

“The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX.”

Four days before that, was this:

” … what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.”

In effect, Wyckoff analysis gave us a ‘head’s up’ nearly a week ago, the SOXX may be about to reverse.

That was plenty of time to decide whether to position short or stand-aside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, this morning the (tech) market’s in a panic.

Over-the-weekend news about threats to Nvidia’s lock on A.I., with this and this resulted in futures opening lower Sunday night.

Then it got worse, link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily (line/close)

Let’s start first, with the last update.

Now, updated as of 10:53 a.m., EST.

On the daily bar-chart (not shown), we have a massive gap-lower open.

Will that gap be filled or is this a real breakaway and the start of a long-sustained bubble deflating decline?

That of course, is unknown.

What is known and presented on this site, Wyckoff analysis, with its century old technique, spotted the potential for reversal well ahead of the actual fact (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Note

As the sidebar shows, since the beginning of this year, there have been several attempts to position short in the SOXX via leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Trades SOXS-25-01 (not discussed), and SOXS-25-02, were first, then closed, with trade SOXS-25-03, opened last Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. Bubble and Bubbles, Past

January 25, 2025 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Positions, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Once The Trend Was Broken

During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.

Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.

Not so, today.

Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.

Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.

The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.

If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Tops (again)

January 21, 2025 By in Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXX 1 Comment

Repeating Pattern

The SOXX, continues to test (or follow) the underside of a trendline break dating back to mid-November, last year.

That line is not shown on the chart (at left), but what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Will Bulls Be Trapped?

December 2, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

One More Set-Up, Before Downside?

So, here we are.

Another repeating set-up.

Wyckoff: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

Let’s cut straight to the chase.

This set-up type was first covered years ago, at this link.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Until the market proves otherwise, we’re still sub-dividing lower in a downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

At times, a trend-break will have multiple tests.

Recall, this update said we’re at Fibonacci Week 21.

Now, with the new daily and weekly high we’ve moved to Fibonacci Week 21 (+1).

A week plus or minus, for a 21-week count, is within acceptable error limits (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Which (break) is Which?

November 30, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Bubbles, Side-by-Side

Here’s something a little different.

Two trend breaks are shown side-by-side.

Without looking at prior updates, which chart is the internet (QQQ) bubble break and which chart is the A.I. (SOXX), bubble break?

We’ll cue the Jeopardy music while you pick. 🙂

And now, for the reveal

Internet Bubble QQQ, Weekly

The chart segment on the right, is the internet bubble of the 2000s.

There’s no ‘rest of the story’ with the SOXX.

That story has yet to happen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Trend Break Test

November 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Was That It?

Watching the SOXX, price action in real time, is like a slow-motion train wreck.

The trendline shown below, was broken two weeks ago.

Since then, we’ve had an upside test.

As of the close today, that test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Frist, the break and test.

Next, we’re at Fibonacci Week 21, from the all-time highs and reversal.

All of this suggests some type of inflection point.

Positioning

As of today’s close, the original entry (SOXS @ 19.98) for SOXS-24-20, is up a solid +17.67%.

Since that entry, other smaller trades (eight in total) have been profitable, thereby reducing the price-level, increasing the gain, of the original entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

We may be at the point, where that ‘slow-motion train wreck’, begins to pick up steam.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Rolls Over

November 26, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , ,

The Big One?

It’s been a long time coming.

The next down-leg in the SOXX, and A.I., bubble, may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Many factors coming together; Fibonacci projections, retrace levels and time sequences; price action posting and defining trend lines and trading channels.

With that, let’s take a look at what the SOXX, is saying about itself.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re half-way though today’s session, anything can happen. Even so, the test and reversal are clear.

What also may be in the making, is the verification of the trading channel shown.

The channel has its own Fibonacci count(s).

One part, Fibonacci 5-days wide, another, Fibonacci 8 days, for a total of Fibonacci 13-days.

Positioning

For those following this site on a daily basis, you already know, this sector’s been sold (short) via leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade number is, SOXS-24-20, in the sidebar, above.

The short was initiated with this update, shown above in the chart. It was maintained throughout the gyrations of the ‘election’ and aftermath.

Now, we wait.

If nothing else, and the trade falls apart, today’s session high in the SOXX, is an excellent place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Pop’

November 25, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Testing The Underside

After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?

It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.

How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:

“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.

Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂

Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.

One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.

As of today, the market is currently testing that break.

The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.

This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.

A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Melt Up … Blow Up … What?

November 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Confusion Abounds

So, what’s it going to be?

Hyperinflationary melt-up? A massive crash? Trump-bump to new era of prosperity?

From a strategic standpoint, taking the pulse of analysis presented in the mainstream, on YouTube, et al., it’s a mass of confusion and differing opinions.

When all else fails, when in doubt, just spit out the ‘inflation’ rout. 🙂

A Different Approach

This site’s focused on truth and truth, attracts few followers.

One of those truths is Nvidia’s latest earnings release.

That release may have indicated, the A.I. bubble, the bubble of all bubbles, has popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s take a look at the sector and see what it’s telling us.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

This prior update said we’re waiting for the break.

Well, we got it and now, an apparent test at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the October 15th, highs.

We’ll know soon enough, if the above work and the prior updates have identified the A.I. bubble top correctly.

Using the price action model of bubbles past, a trend break under the above conditions may signal an imminent, sustained, decline not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279