Category Archives: SOXX-25-01

Wal-Mart Breakdown

July 8, 2025 By in Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04

Up-Thrust and Trend Break

Wal-Mart’s not looking too good.

The premise for WMT, price action remains intact; we’re (still) in a test of the up-thrust, discussed here.

That ‘test’ may have been resolved with today’s action.

Positions

Currently short WMT, as WMT-25-04, with stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Separately, SOXX short, despite all the (analysis) work, was stopped out with a slight profit: SOXX-25-01, closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s … Timed Top

July 4, 2025 By in GDXJ, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, still In-Effect?

Insight on Nvidia’s adherence to Fibonacci, began over a year ago, with this post.

That update, identified the (interim) reversal correctly.

Since then, price action continued and has now, this (shortened) week, posted another potential correlation.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The week closed with a high, 55-weeks from the ‘Week 89’ high, making a total of Fibonacci 144 (-1) weeks, from the October 2022, lows.

One might ask, can it be this precise?

To answer that question, we’ll go back to this analysis.

The next (trading) day, Junior Miners GDXJ, printed a new daily high (55-Days), then reversed lower for 24-weeks, a total decline over 50%.

So, it turns out, it can be that precise if market conditions are in favor, and nobody’s looking (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279