Category Archives: SOXX

Melt Up … Blow Up … What?

November 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Confusion Abounds

So, what’s it going to be?

Hyperinflationary melt-up? A massive crash? Trump-bump to new era of prosperity?

From a strategic standpoint, taking the pulse of analysis presented in the mainstream, on YouTube, et al., it’s a mass of confusion and differing opinions.

When all else fails, when in doubt, just spit out the ‘inflation’ rout. 🙂

A Different Approach

This site’s focused on truth and truth, attracts few followers.

One of those truths is Nvidia’s latest earnings release.

That release may have indicated, the A.I. bubble, the bubble of all bubbles, has popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s take a look at the sector and see what it’s telling us.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

This prior update said we’re waiting for the break.

Well, we got it and now, an apparent test at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the October 15th, highs.

We’ll know soon enough, if the above work and the prior updates have identified the A.I. bubble top correctly.

Using the price action model of bubbles past, a trend break under the above conditions may signal an imminent, sustained, decline not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !!!

November 21, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

… And, Another One Down …

‘Another one bites the dust.’

Nvidia price action posts ‘out-side-down’.

There was plenty of after-market, and pre-market shenanigans concerning the ‘earnings‘ release.

The result? A.I. will still save the world, just a little slower than previously thought (not advice, not a recommendation).

But wait… do I still get to sign women’s breasts?

While price action in NVDA, is obvious, outside down (at mid-session), what’s not so obvious, is the sector itself.

What’s the SOXX, telling us?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the repeating pattern, ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As a bonus chart, we also have a potential trading channel.

Of course, the right-side line is a data-point of one. It’s not confirmed.

That is the way of the markets.

One needs to see (and manage) the potential before it becomes obvious.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Breakaway Gaps’ … Downside

November 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

A.I. Bubble Implosion, Update

Before we start, it’s important to note as far as the mainstream’s concerned, all is well, Nvidia continues to ‘dominate’, link here.

In that link, there’s no serious discussion on what price action is actually doing.

For that, we have this update. 🙂

Since the last post on the SOXX, it has broken the trendline to the downside.

If we model this bubble against bubbles past, specifically the 2000s internet bubble, then the SOXX has started its long, potentially sustained, decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen; Nvidia has yet to report earnings (scheduled for after-the-bell, today).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The blue arrows are breakaway gaps, indicating bearish conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), the SOXX is attempting to ‘spring’ upward off the penetration of the new daily lows.

This is normal market behavior; it’s what happens after the close that will potentially be most important.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Ruled by Fibonacci

November 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Pivots at Fibonacci Counts

Using the ‘Way-Back‘ machine, going to this post, we see NVDA, is being influenced by Fibonacci; more specifically, the weekly counts.

The week before last may have put in the (final) top in for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

That week was also Fibonacci ‘Week 21’, from the pivot high of ‘Week 89’, detailed in the link above.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

Note that upward thrust energy is declining.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The A.I. Bubble’s in Trouble

November 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Ruh, Roh, Scooby

Well, Scooby … looks like we’re in trouble, now.

Actually, it’s the A.I. bubble, that’s in trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

To start things off, here are a few (A.I.) notes from the article at this link:

‘significant near-term headwinds’

‘diminishing returns’

‘hit a proverbial brick wall’

‘not lived up to expectations’

Need we go on? Why not. 🙂

‘increasingly challenging’

‘massive costs’

‘might be a pipedream’

Well, I think that sets the stage.

Before getting to the chart, let’s just add this one item.

While A.I. appears ready for a complete implosion, ‘investors’ have rarely been so optimistic, link here.

Of course, from a Wyckoff standpoint, the chart below, has already told us what’s likely to happen next.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly Close

Price action’s (potentially) in a massive terminating wedge, three-years in the making.

Note, the SOXX is at the trend-line for the fourth time.

An old Wall Street adage, the source of which was lost long ago said, ‘when the trendline is challenged for the fourth time, there’s typically a break’ (not advice, not recommendation).

Let’s see if that happens now.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Breakdown … Imminent

November 13, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

The Path, of Bubbles Past

We’re getting very close to the SOXX, trend break discussed in this update.

If that’s the case and there’s a breakdown, the SOXX, joins the list of past manias and market bubbles (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other markets are hovering near all-time highs, giving the (false) impression, all is well.

Updated In Real-Time

Those monitoring this site have watched in real-time, how this market was selected for (short) positioning and when it was selected.

The only thing not discussed, was the management decision to maintain the position through the ‘election’ blip which at this time, has been fully retraced and more.

It’s a failed (up) move.

Nothing gets the Street’s attention more than a failed breakout or breakdown. The opposing side is trapped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything Can Happen

As David Weis used to say, ‘anything can happen’.

There has been no trend break, yet.

As of this post (10:50 a.m., EST), the SOXX, is hovering at support, threatening to break lower.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

This Time … It’s Biotech

November 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, MRNA, PFE, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: ,

Another Reversal

One by one, each sector appears to be topping or reversing.

This time, it’s biotech.

Analysis (and action) over the past year has been on again, off again and now, appears to be back on again.

However, this time we have (as we’ll see below) a near perfect Fibonacci correlation.

Biotech Sector Index SPBIO, Daily

First, the big picture.

The corrective retrace that started way back in late October, of last year.

Next, we’ll get in closer to show the exactness of the Fibonacci levels.

It hardly ever works out this perfectly, but there it is.

Change Horses?

It’s no secret, the focus of trading action on this site since mid-October, has been to short semiconductors, potentially the largest bubble (A.I.) in world history (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, biotech may get its comeuppance as well with information like this, this and this hitting the mainstream.

The decision to take action or not, remains open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX, Has Spoken

November 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Anyone Listening?

For the vast majority, the answer is, ‘probably not’.

For the tiny fraction monitoring these updates, we should be getting the uneasy feeling, the (major) pivot downward in the SOXX, may have just started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Painstaking Detail

Over the past several months, presented on this site, the assessment that A.I., ‘artificial intelligence’, is just another mania in a long line of manias, going way back to the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s; reference posts or links here, here, and here.

The trick is, and has been, what to do?

One Man’s Approach

If I had to summarize my approach to the current situation, it would be to model Mr. Partridge (a.k.a. ‘Turkey’) from the book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

That is, get into position, minimize transactions, stay there until the market says otherwise (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s what’s being done; trade labeled: SOXS-24-20.

For additional reference, click on that number in the sidebar to see all related posts.

Election Reaction Complete

Based on SOXX, price action itself, it’s possible the upward blip from last Tuesday’s events has run its course.

If that’s true, we can get back to the (potential) implosion of the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (11:41 a.m., EST) the SOXX, has retraced nearly every bit of last week’s up-move.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nasdaq & A.I. Bubbles, Compared

November 8, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Nasdaq, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 15 Comments

Similar Pattern … So Far

Two charts are presented below.

First, the Nasdaq bubble of the 2000s.

Then, the A.I. bubble in semiconductors, the SOXX.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Massive downward thrust indicated the mania was over.

The bubble in the SOXX, compared to the Qs, looks eerily similar except the trend break is missing (so far).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note, in the case of the SOXX, there were two massive down-thrusts.

The second (not highlighted) was Fibonacci 5-Weeks later.

Of course, nothing is known for sure until it’s all over.

However, the charts are similar.

There’s been a lot happening over the past few days.

Those events may have had all the effect they’re going to from an upside perspective (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279