Category Archives: The List

Biotech … The ‘Short’ List

May 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression, LABD, SPBIO, The List

A Long List, At That

The prior analysis of biotech SPBIO, had expectations for price action to rise into the 6,400 area: the location of the 200-Day Moving Average.

It did that, and more …

Back in late April, SPBIO, was in a Fibonacci time sequence. Shown below, that time structure may still be intact.

But First … The List

Note: This is not “The List“, as has been compiled (still on-going), covering the horrors of this sector but rather a list of reasons why SPBIO, is likely to head lower from here.

Here it is, not in any particular order:

Price action has reached a Fibonacci 76.4%, level

From the March 24th low, price action has retraced upward in an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, with wave ‘a’ distance equal to wave ‘c’. Note: Equal distance ‘a’ and ‘c’, on a print basis.

At the last session, as the action pushed to a new daily high, there was ‘evidence of a struggle’ during the session to either reverse lower or move higher. Action was undecided and closed slightly below the open.

Looking at the first chart below, the daily close for the past three-years has the trend decidedly down; this sector is the weakest of all the major indices.

On the chart below, there’s a series of lower highs, lower lows that have oscillated into a massive bearish wedge.

Yesterday (Wednesday) was a Fibonacci 34 days (-1), from the print lows set on March 24th. That day was also a Fibonacci 34 days (+1), from the closing low set on March 22nd. We’re still posting a Fibonacci Time correlation.

From the highs set on February 2nd, to the lows on March 24th and then to the highs set yesterday May 10th, is symmetrical; separated by a Fibonacci 8-weeks lower and then Fibonacci 8-weeks higher.

Fundamentally, this sector is a disaster. None of the top ten equities have a P/E. All are losing money.

No P/E and operating at a loss; interest rates rising, credit standards being tightened. How are these outfits going to secure more Venture Capital (or any additional funding via stock/debt) in that environment; implosion is dead-ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Bank failures continue … at some point (as with the rest of us) one of these banks may be the line of credit for company payroll. Not all banks went bust in The Great Depression but just enough to halt payroll for some key industries. That event helped topple the economy.

The list goes on but that’s enough to make the point.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Moving closer in, to show the Fibonacci retrace, the Fibonacci time and the ‘a-b-c’ structure.

As of this post (12:25 p.m., EST) price action continues its downside reversal.

Because the retrace level (76.4%) is the highest noted by Fibonacci, we can expect some amount of upward testing if there’s going to be a sustained downside.

Anything can happen. However, with the above list compiled for both technical and fundamental conditions, probabilities point lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Early Stage Reversal

April 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

The ‘Big’ One ?

Sometimes early in a reversal it looks like nothing’s happening.

Only after we’re underway, it’s clear where the pivot occurred.

In our case, biotech SPBIO, broke down out of its bear flag, came back to test and now, may be continuing on its downward track.

The reversal’s not obvious yet and can be easily negated by more upward pressure. We’re at The Danger Point®.

A quick review of the monthly chart shows a potential Head & Shoulders forming.

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

If that’s what’s happening, the H&S pattern, it’s massive; spanning five-years and counting.

The ‘Fundamentals’

Of course, a massive reversal pattern would coincide with what’s happening overall at this juncture.

It seems that each day, we have more of this:

Twitter Files: Dr. Anthony Fauci “Lied Under Oath”

CDC Director Admits Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Transmission, Blames “Evolution Of Science”

Throw in a banking crisis or two, credit tightening, supply disruptions and this sector may collapse under the weight of that all by itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving closer in, on a 3-Day chart we see the break and test more clearly.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

We’ll zoom-in on the trend break.

Lastly, going to the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, on the daily timeframe, it shows a repeating trendline that may be in confirmation during this session (currently, 11:15 a.m. EST).

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

It’s still early in the session and anything can happen.

This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Testing Resistance

April 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Test & Reverse ?

The Wyckoff ‘spring’ position in biotech was identified correctly.

Two days later, SPBIO launches straight-up.

So, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen next.

Going way back to 1931 and Wyckoff’s teachings and course material (still available here), he stated:

‘When an up-trend is decisively broken to the downside, more often than not, there’s some type of attempt to rally as a test of that break.’

We’ll use a Fibonacci 3-Day Closing chart of Biotech SPBIO, to see if Wyckoff’s timeless market insight still holds up in today’s world.

Biotech SPBIO 3-Day Close

Starting with an un-marked chart, first.

Putting in the notations with a zoom into the recent action.

Well, it looks like nothing has changed in the last 100-years because there it is. 🙂

Biotech broke down out of its trendline and bear flag of the past five months and has now come back to test that area.

Fundamentals

By this time, we all know the story on this sector. The fundamentals are nothing short of horrific.

Just in case there’s someone new to this site and they’ve not yet got the memo, we’ll add two more to ‘The List‘

Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are All Anti-Malarial: May Not Be A Coincidence

UK Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

As always, it’s the comments from the ‘ZeroHedge Guys’, that are more valuable than the article itself.

Strategy

For my corporate accounts, I’m already re-positioning short via LABD, starting during the last session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial entry has been quite small as this market could push a bit higher (lower for LABD) just because of momentum alone.

We see that in today’s pre-market session (LABD down about 2%).

It’s now about five minutes before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Train Keeps Rollin’

April 4, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Correction & Reversal, Gaining Steam

The biotech sector’s (upside) correction is complete.

If that’s correct, it’s likely to get very serious to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

A massive list of fundamentals, i.e., ‘side effects’, have been documented on this sector’s reprehensible behavior (saying it politely) over the past three years.

‘The List’

From here on out, we’ll call the linked information that follows, ‘The List’. So, we have The Biotech List, linked here, here, and here.

In the past few days we can add more items to the list, here, here and here.

When The Money Runs Out …

Now, it looks like the money (and ‘patient’) spigot is running dry as reported here.

So, let’s see how that’s working itself out for chief cook and bottle washer; biotech, SPBIO.

As usual, we’re looking at 3X, leveraged inverse fund LABD.

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Sharp reversal to the upside.

We’re nearing the end of today’s session (2:55 p.m., EST) and price action has been relentless.

Looking at the weekly chart of LABD, we see the trendline being confirmed.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Weekly

A reasonable expectation for the next session(s) is some type of back testing of today’s action … although it’s not required.

Positioning

Yesterday’s downside LABD, action forced the complete exit of the main position that was (in-part) established during the downside thrust on February 2nd.

Overall profit gain on the series, was just over + 44%.

So, we had partial exit with +37%, main exit with +44%.

Later in the session yesterday, it became obvious the downside correction (from March 24th) may be nearing completion; the main position was re-established @ LABD 20.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s action puts that entry well in the green.

If this really is the next leg lower (higher for LABD), the expectation is for significantly increased volatility.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279