Category Archives: Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

When Fibonacci, and P&F, Agree

April 21, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, XBI

For Biotech, Both Projections Match

When’s the last time you saw a P&F chart on any (other) website or YouTube, channel?

My guess … probably a long time ago, or never.

Even StockCharts, recently revamped their site, removing the landing page option for P&F. It’s still there, but you have to search to find it under ‘more tools’.

If we’re going to be using Wyckoff analysis to determine the most probable direction for the market (and how far it could go), then P&F analysis is part of that effort.

For our biotech example, XBI, we’ve used two projection methods to see where price action is likely to go if we have a sustainable downturn in progress.

Biotech XBI, 3-Point P&F

As a reminder, ‘3-Point’ means before an ‘X’ or ‘O’ is charted (for reversal), the index must move at least 3-points.

Based on the P&F action itself, we have a projection range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, comes the interesting part, Fibonacci projections.

Biotech XBI, 8-Day, w/Fibonacci

The Fibonacci projections are shown as the blue lines.

The P&F projections from the chart above, are overlaid as the magenta lines.

Of course, projections do not guarantee anything.

At the next open, XBI could launch itself into a upside reversal; not likely, but it could happen.

Wyckoff Cause & Effect

What we’re doing here, is adhering to Wyckoff discipline from his stock market course material (still available here).

No position, long or short is entered unless there is sufficient cause i.e., P&F count for a sustained move.

Note: I have no affiliation with the Stock Market Insitute and do not receive any compensation from them.

In the case of biotech XBI, above, it literally has spent years generating a P&F count; the ’cause’.

The ‘effect’, is the actual move; now potentially in progress.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Testing Resistance

April 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Test & Reverse ?

The Wyckoff ‘spring’ position in biotech was identified correctly.

Two days later, SPBIO launches straight-up.

So, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen next.

Going way back to 1931 and Wyckoff’s teachings and course material (still available here), he stated:

‘When an up-trend is decisively broken to the downside, more often than not, there’s some type of attempt to rally as a test of that break.’

We’ll use a Fibonacci 3-Day Closing chart of Biotech SPBIO, to see if Wyckoff’s timeless market insight still holds up in today’s world.

Biotech SPBIO 3-Day Close

Starting with an un-marked chart, first.

Putting in the notations with a zoom into the recent action.

Well, it looks like nothing has changed in the last 100-years because there it is. 🙂

Biotech broke down out of its trendline and bear flag of the past five months and has now come back to test that area.

Fundamentals

By this time, we all know the story on this sector. The fundamentals are nothing short of horrific.

Just in case there’s someone new to this site and they’ve not yet got the memo, we’ll add two more to ‘The List‘

Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are All Anti-Malarial: May Not Be A Coincidence

UK Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

As always, it’s the comments from the ‘ZeroHedge Guys’, that are more valuable than the article itself.

Strategy

For my corporate accounts, I’m already re-positioning short via LABD, starting during the last session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial entry has been quite small as this market could push a bit higher (lower for LABD) just because of momentum alone.

We see that in today’s pre-market session (LABD down about 2%).

It’s now about five minutes before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 13, 2022 By in Biotech, Crypto, CVNA, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, Goldman, HOOD, J.P. Morgan, JDST, JDST-22-05, LABD, LABD-22-10, Michael Cowan, Positions, SPBIO, TSLA, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What To Watch … Crypto Collapse, Biotech, Gold, Telsa

JPMorgan … says sell

Goldman … says buy.

Wyckoff says … Don’t listen to either.

In fact, Wyckoff’s stock market training course, first published in 1934, (still available), says that until you can ignore the financial press completely, ‘You will never be successful in the markets’.

Price action itself, properly interpreted, will tell you where to look for the opportunity.

The Ponzi Implosion, Cometh

The market is littered with Ponzi schemes. Some have already imploded, CVNA, HOOD, Crypto; some have not.

Concerning Crypto, here’s an excellent update from Michael Cowan. Buried in that update, at time stamp 4:58, looks like HOOD, may be in even more trouble.

Biotech is in a class of its own and was discussed in yesterday’s update.

For gold, we’re going to look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, and last week’s action.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

The Junior’s are the weakest in the sector; therefore, that’s where we look for a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

To move higher, above resistance, normal market behavior, is to come back to the lower blue line (i.e., support) to gain enough energy to move higher for a breakout.

To move lower, normal market behavior, is to come down to the lower blue line as a test which subsequently fails; the move continues lower.

Either way, normal behavior at this juncture, is to move lower. We’ll see.

Now on to the chief cook and bottle washer … Tesla.

Tesla (TSLA), At The Edge

For starters, let’s recognize there’re a lot of moving parts; U.S. ‘parts’ and China ‘parts’.

If one’s going short, another task is to forecast under what conditions a short would have enough risk removed.

For that answer, oddly enough, we go to gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly: 2015 – 2017

GLD posted a massive upthrust above the blue line lasting over fourteen weeks before breaking decisively lower.

Then, it labored four weeks to come back up for a test.

After that, collapse; lower weekly closes for seven consecutive weeks.

In the chart above, the area identified as ‘Short’, has as much upside risk removed as possible, right at resistance.

Now on to Tesla.

Tesla TLSA, Weekly

Two scenarios are presented where risk may be reduced.

Chart 1

Chart 2

One of these may happen or neither of them.

Either way, for risk to be reduced, a short entry is needed to be at a known resistance level (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s move on to the current positioning.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

One of three events will happen at the next session.

1: Both positions stopped out

2: One position stopped out

3: No positions stopped out

Each outcome will provide a data-point where to focus (or not) in the current environment.

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83

JDST-22-05

Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Test-In-Progress

July 26, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute 1 Comment

By The Book

With about 40-minutes left in the session, biotech SPBIO, appears to be completing a test of its downside reversal.

Prior updates have shown the potential for a massive trading range; right along with a very weak reversal at Fibonacci 23.6%.

We’ve happened to locate a short video from the Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, detailing the nuances of Wyckoff spring action.

That video is linked here.

Watch the video and then look at the chart of leveraged inverse fund LABD, below.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly Chart

If the test has competed, we can expect a swift LABD rally (spring) to the upside (down for SPBIO).

Summary

The potential for a significant down-move in SPBIO, has already been covered.

Reference updates linked here, here, and here.

If this is a move of major significance, we’re still in the very early stages.

Positions have already been established; LABD-22-05, TDA-LABD-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO itself, will define the next course of action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279